For the fourth time this year, a Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR finished with the top fantasy score. Mike Evans had the high score twice along with a 4th place finish, and now Chris Godwin is back at the top for the second time with 37.4 points from 7/184/2 on eight targets. It is rare to see such a high score earned from only eight targets, but Godwin made the most of them, including a 71-yard TD score in the first quarter that was mostly YAC. He now ranks second at the position with Evans right behind him, both only trailing the most consistent and matchup-proof WR in the game, Michael Thomas.
Godwin also ranks 2nd in out-performing his expected points, with a per-game average of 6.1 FPOE which was significantly boosted by his 21.8 FPOE this week. The only nit to pick with him is that he is inconsistent due to Evans being on his team, but the ceiling of the top Bucs WR in any week is the best in the league, and Godwin has rarely posted a complete dud, only dropping below 10 points once so far.
It was a great week for TD regression, and Leonard Fournette joined in with his best CMC impression, going 24/97/2 rushing plus 9/62 on 12 targets (36.9 points). There is probably no running back in the league who needed a TD more than Fournette, who had only one this year in spite of a monstrous workload. Ranking top-six in opportunities and yards, he ranks only 32nd in TDs even after this week. He boasts a gargantuan ranking discrepancy between Expected Points (2nd) and FPOE (143rd). Comically, he only has a single game where he held a positive FPOE this season and it wasn’t even this week. He is the perfect example of how volume trumps all for fantasy at the RB position, ranking 5th in points at RB despite underperforming on his opportunities so far.
With Nick Foles re-joining the offense last week, it was unclear how Fournette’s targets might be affected. He was targeted seven times last week, right in line with his average (6.4), but this week his 12 targets were significantly more than his previous high of eight, showing that he has become game-script proof this season.
In third this week is Jarvis Landry, who posted a career-high 36.8 fantasy points on 13 targets, going 10/148/2. Looking at his distribution of previous scores, he was only able to exceed 27 points one time, scoring 35.9 in 2015. Now reunited with college-teammate, Odell Beckham Jr., he is no longer the focus of a defense’s attention and is showing his upside recently with five TDs in his last four games. He is having his second-best season in average YAC (5.5) and ranks fifth in team target share with 27%, tied with OBJ. He ranks between ninth and 26th among WRs in most metrics, only lagging behind in FPOE (52nd).
Though this performance came against the Dolphins, who are dead-last in pass defense DVOA, his other TDs on this four-game streak came against more respectable competition: Pittsburgh (fifth), Buffalo (ninth) and Denver (15th). His recent boon is likely correlated with the improved play of Baker Mayfield, who has not dropped below 19.8 fantasy points in the last four weeks. If Mayfield can continue his solid production and Landry keeps averaging near his average of 8.8 targets per game, he could continue to post WR2 or better numbers. I expect his TD production will likely wane though, with Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and Beckham contending for red zone work.
What can I add about Christian McCaffrey that hasn’t already been said? This week he went 22/64/1 on the ground and 9/61/1, catching 100% of his targets (34.3 points). Even when averaging 2.9 YPC he still gets it done, ranking top-two in everything except YPC (ninth). He gets more opportunity (rushes + targets) than anyone else with 27.6 per game. Targets, which he gets more of than any other RB, are twice as valuable as caries, further boosting his floor and ceiling. Barring an injury, nobody except Lamar Jackson has any shot of surpassing him as the top fantasy scorer this season. I am curious if any previous years’ top fantasy scorer went an entire season without the top score in any given week, which CMC is currently on pace for.
Ryan Tannehill completes the Top 5 with a Lamar Jackson-esque performance of 259/2/0 completing 14/18 passes, adding 7/40/2 on the ground, earning 32.4 fantasy points. Starting the year as a backup to Marcus Mariota, Tannehill has really impressed in his first year removed from the Dolphins starting QB spot. He ranks 3rd with a 71% completion rate as well as 3rd in both QBR and FPOE. It is as if he was on the bench watching Lamar Jackson highlights and thought “I can do that”. His floor has been very high due to his rushing production, and now he’s shown his ceiling potential. He has added 4.0 Rushing FPOE per game since week 7, and 7.9 per game since week 9.
The Titans offense is rolling, with Derrick Henry finishing seventh this week after coming in fourth in Week 10. While having a rushing QB takes away from RB targets, it does help with their rushing efficiency because defenses have to respect and defend the QB as a rusher. Unlike the Ravens, who split carries among multiple RBs, the Titans offense is moving through Tannehill and Henry. Rushing yards are a nice bonus, but rushing TDs are gold for fantasy QBs as they are worth six points instead of four for a passing TD. Tannehill has three rushing TDs in as many games, with at least 37 rushing yards in each. He could be a difference-maker for fantasy teams in the playoffs and should be owned in 100% of leagues.
