This was a week in which RBs erupted, with each of the top 6 at the position going for two or more TDs and clearing 25 fantasy points easily.
Edging out Julio Jones for the top spot, Kenyan Drake was the lone RB to go for more than two touchdowns, rushing for 137/4 and catching his only target for 9 yards (39.6 points). His fantasy season struggled to get going until he was traded to Arizona from Miami, where he was averaging only 13.3 opportunities per game behind the league's worst offensive line. Claiming the lead spot since filling in for the injured David Johnson and Chase Edmonds in Arizona, he is since averaging 19 opportunities and flashed a stellar ceiling, twice exceeding 28 fantasy points.
I am concerned about his targets declining with totals of 4, 7, 7, 5, 3, and 1, but I am hopeful this week’s low pass-game usage was due to the Cardinals playing from ahead. Drake excels as a pass-catcher, ranking sixth in YAC among RBs, significant because his Air Yard Per Target is negative. As the Cardinals lead back, he has four point totals between 7-14, but also his two ceiling games of 28.2 and 39.6. As long as he maintains the lead role in the backfield, he is a must start.
Julio Jones kicked off the season by scoring four TDs in his first three games, going for 25+ fantasy points in two of those. Since then, he was held scoreless and only had one game over 25 until yesterday’s performance where he caught his two TDs, including a game-winner as time expired. He had 13/134/2 on a whopping 20 targets, the highest I’ve seen this season for any player (38.4 points). Julio wasn’t having a bad year, but he was not quite meeting the expectations of those who drafted him, having five games with negative FPOE.
Since last season, he has shared the field with one of the best young WRs in the game, Calvin Ridley, who averages 14 PPG in his two-year career and 15.2 PPG this season. Jones was unaffected last season, as he averaged 20.6 PPG and was a WR1 69% of the time. This year he has only managed WR1 38% of the time and was averaging 16.2 PPG with Ridley playing, but then immediately had his best game since 2017 with Ridley on IR. Jones now ranks second in Air Yards and 4th in PPG, but is only 46th in FPOE. He is down at 60th in YAC with only 3.8 per reception, so he is quite dependant on getting abundant and high-value targets. The positive regression began immediately as he regained his featured role, and that is likely to continue as the season closes out.
Finishing third again is the top overall fantasy player, Christian McCaffrey, who has not finished a single week as the top scorer but has been Top 5 on six occasions. He ranks as the top overall RB in more stats than he doesn’t, and his worst stat is 12th in YPC which has more to do with how well an offensive line run-blocks than RB skill. No RB receives a greater percentage of their team's targets than CMC with 23%, a huge part of the reason for his consistent floor and high ceiling.
His targets are what fantasy dreams and championships are made of, with 8.4 per game and no less than nine in his last five straight. The Panthers are making a conscious effort to feed him touches in spite of a lost season, as he is chasing milestones and records. I hope that this incredible workload doesn’t affect him next season or shorten his career, but it is something to be considered.
In fourth is MVP frontrunner, Lamar Jackson, who completed 15/23 attempts for 212/5/0 and rushed for 86 yards on eight attempts (37.1 points). Like CMC, he is back for his sixth time in the Top 5, and not slowing down at all towards the end of the season. He’s in the midst of the best fantasy ever for a QB, and I never thought I’d see anything like this. Jackson is playing like some hybrid of Peyton Manning and Michael Vick, ranking first in QBR and pass TDs, while adding 7.4 YPC on 11.4 rush attempts per game. If there is a way to have a higher floor or ceiling, it is yet to be discovered.
Wrapping up the list in fifth is Miles Sanders, with a true post-hype eruption to troll the fantasy owners who sat him because they were worried about his backup, Boston Scott. Sanders rushed for 19/122/1 and caught all six targets for 50 yards and another TD (35.2 points). He has been a popular fantasy starter while teammate Jordan Howard has missed time with an injured shoulder. He scored 21.5 in a plum matchup against the Dolphins, but only 10.9 last week against the Giants, missing some time due to leg cramps.
He was spelled by Boston Scott, who looked explosive and earned 24.8 points on just 16 touches. This led to speculation that Scott had earned more work and it would negatively impact Sanders’s. This was half correct, as Scott did get 13 touches and 13.5 points of his own, but Sanders’s 25 touches were the most of his career and ran pure, achieving 13.5 FPOE. He clearly possesses high upside, as he has scored 12.4 FPOE or greater on three occasions this season.
At the RB position, Sanders ranks third in Air Yards Per Target and is sitting seventh in receiving yards; quite impressive for a rookie in a split backfield. While he maintains the lead role, he is an every-week starter regardless of the matchup. It is worth monitoring how the RB touches are distributed once Howard returns, as we could be looking at a three-man backfield.