The biggest fantasy week of the year came with a few surprises. A number of fantasy leagues were won in Week 16 behind a few unexpected (or long-awaited) performances. This was a very unique week, where two contrarian stacks ended up with the top overall scores.
Saquon Barkley completely dominated the slate with 189/1 rushing and 4/90/1 receiving (43.9 points), his second 30+ point game in a row. He is starting to return to form after struggling this year with a high ankle sprain and only averaging 18.6 PPG compared to 24.1 PPG last season. His targets have also fallen in 2019 with a 5.8 average, down from 7.6 in 2018 with Daniel Jones as the starter in most games. Although Barkley has been a disappointment as the first overall pick in most fantasy drafts, he rewarded anyone who was able to make the playoffs in the semi-finals and championship. He likely won’t go first overall next season, but has made a strong case for a top 5 RB.
Daniel Jones was the other half of this Giants stack, completing 28 of 42 attempts for 352/5/0 and adding 12 yards rushing in his return from an ankle injury (35.3 points). Jones is a strong fantasy QB in the right matchups, having now exceeded 28 points in four games in his rookie year. He is 13th in passing TDs and seventh in rush yards despite not starting for four games. Ranking 30th in completion percentage and 25th in QBR, he has been quite volatile, throwing 11 INTs and 10 fumbles in only 12 games, including a game with only four pass attempts.
If he continues to turn the ball over at such a high rate, he may not be what the Giants are looking for at QB, but for fantasy purposes, he could be the next Jameis Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick. He has not targeted Barkley as much as Eli Manning did last year, but perhaps that will trend upwards after such a strong receiving performance from Barkley this week. He is clearly their best playmaker and it would make sense to give him a workhorse role not only as a rusher, but in the passing game-plan as well.
Both players from the other top stack this week were fourth-quarter-heroes, Andy Dalton and Tyler Boyd, who ended up tied for third with 33.8 points. With fractional scoring, Dalton edged out his teammate with 33.84, so I’ll start there. The Bengals QB threw the rock 56 times against Miami, completing 33 for 396/4/0 with a two-point conversion and one fumble. He has one of the most interesting positional rank profiles I’ve seen, ranking first in expected points per game but 62nd in FPOE.
He’s down at 40th in completion percentage and QBR, performing below his expectation in 9/12 games. Dalton has been without stud wideout, A.J. Green for the entire year, as well as missing speedster, John Ross for Weeks 5-13 after a hot start. Dalton was benched in Weeks 9-12 and the Bengals are locked in for the first overall pick next season, which will almost certainly be used on a QB. This may be it for Dalton, but if he gets any starts next year I would consider him for cheap DFS stacks.
Tyler Boyd was targeted 15 times in the 35-38 shootout loss to the Dolphins, catching 9/128/2 for the aforementioned 33.8 points. He suffers from the same problem as Dalton with his positional rank: outlier inefficiency. Boyd is sixth in targets, ninth in expected points, but 175th in FPOE. He has negative FPOE in 9/15 games including -7.7 and -11.3 in Weeks 6-7. Although he is highly targeted, his average target is a low 7.5 air yards which ranks 95th.
This was his best result in his four-year career, much of which was as the WR2 with A.J. Green as the WR1. Boyd had actually performed better with Green active, as Green would draw the defenses focus and tougher coverage. Boyd was also able to approach his previous ceiling of 28.6 with a 28.3 score earlier this year, sans Green. To me, this shows that he does have the potential to be an alpha WR, but his lower floor is concerning. This is a situation to monitor as Green’s future is uncertain and the QB situation is likely to change for the better.
In fifth this week was Devonta Freeman, who got the CMC treatment and was featured in the passing game with 11 targets; only the second time with 10+ targets since 2015 when he had four such instances in a nine-game time frame. This Sunday he went 13/53/1 on the ground and 9/74/1 through the air. This game produced the highest receiving expected points of Freeman’s career (16.1). He has had some solid games this season, but his usage has been unpredictable and he only has two rushing TDs so far, both coming in the last three weeks.
He ranks 9th in targets at RB, but is only averaging 64% of the offensive snaps. His snap percentage has ranged from 38% – 90%, making it tough to count on his workload. Six of his games have been RB3 or worse and only twice has he gone over 20 points. He has been able to stay healthy most of the year after missing all but two games last season, but the next year will be his seventh season at a position where longevity is uncommon. Freeman has merit as a DFS play in the right matchups, but I will likely be avoiding him in redraft leagues for 2020.