Fantasy Football Fallout Week 7: Aaron Rodgers, Marvin Jones, & Arizona’s Surprise

The top player in Week 7 was Aaron Rodgers with 43.8 Fpts, going 25/31 passing for 429/5/0 with 2/6/1 on the ground. Surprisingly the only QB in the top five this week, he posted a perfect passer rating for the first time in his career, and his highest completion percentage (81%) since 2014. Even with this amazing performance, he is only ranked fifth in passing yards and passing TDs on the season, but outside the top five in everything else. He has not been a consistently elite QB since 2016, so it is nice to see he still possesses this upside under new Packers head coach Matt LaFleur.

Perhaps this is a sign of things clicking in the new offensive scheme, but it is definitely an outlier where Rodgers was 23.5 points over expectation, his most all time. This points to the production coming from YAC from his receivers and the unsustainable QBR and completion percentage. I give a slight boost to my outlook on Rodgers, but keep in mind that he is still only 9th in points per game.

Second overall, and the only WR in the top five, was Marvin Jones with a bonkers 10/93/4 on 13 targets. Matthew Stafford and/or the Lions coaching staff must have loved Jones’s matchup in the red zone, because they kept going back to him all game long. Jones has been in the league since 2012 and this is only his sixth game over 25 Fpts in PPR. Although this is his second career game with four TDs, I expect him to go right back to being a WR3 for fantasy purposes, as he has been 67% of the time so far this season and 75% in his career. He is the WR2 option on his team and ranks outside the top 12 in everything except for TD receptions (third) at the WR position. 

The most frustrating situation for many DFS and fantasy players on Sunday lead to Chase Edmonds going for 35 Fpts with very few people actually starting him. He totaled 27/126/3 plus 2/24 on four targets. Edmonds is the RB2 on his team behind David Johnson, who was questionable again this week. He was active and started the game, but logged only one carry for two yards before sitting the rest of the game. Clearly not 100%, and with Edmonds showing flashes of brilliance in the previous two weeks, it made no sense for coach Kingsbury to start Johnson, putting his health at unnecessary risk and trolling fantasy owners everywhere. Edmonds is a total stud who reminds me a lot of David Johnson when he was the RB2 in Arizona behind an aging Chris Johnson. Both were capable of significant scores on very few touches, with Edmonds ranking an impressive fifth in FPOE, fourth in YPC and 10th in overall TDs. 

Edmonds’s 5.6 YPC is truly incredible behind PFF’s third-worst ranked offensive line coming into the year. He managed 14.7 Fpts last week and 17.6 the week before as the backup on only seven and 11 touches respectively. He has averaged 10.3 FPOE the last three weeks, suggesting he is a highly efficient and productive RB. We should be cognizant that the Cardinals have played three bad defenses in a row and his production will likely regress in the tougher matchups ahead. Edmonds is playing better than Johnson right now could be a league-winner if Johnson misses any extended time or a reduced workload.

Latavius Murray was the other RB in the top five this week and had very similar stats to Edmonds. Also with 27 carries, he managed 119/2 rushing with 5/31 receiving on six targets. Murray is the Saints’ RB2 behind Alvin Kamara, who was ruled out for this game. The Saints like to split their backfield touches to avoid overworking Kamara, so it was interesting to see Murray get such heavy usage with Kamara out.

Murray had been a fantasy-bust so far, with only one top top-24 performance previous to this game. Many expected him to step right into Mark Ingram’s role (16.7 Opp/G), but last week was his first time with over nine opportunities this season. New Orleans had a tough road matchup vs Chicago, but led for most of the game and were able to lean on the run. This was the most opportunities Murray had in his career by six, and I expect that to regress even if Kamara misses extended time. However, the Saints are a team that is willing to feature their RBs in the pass-game and the red zone. Murray will likely have a larger role moving forward as the Saints look to keep Kamara healthy for the playoffs.

Darren Waller wraps up the list as the lone TE in the top-five. After being down at the 2-yard line late in the first half, he finally found pay dirt (twice), going 7/126/2 on 8 targets and good for 31.6 Fpts. He got wide open over the middle for his first, and worked his way in with a spin-move for the second. Waller is now the second overall TE on the season and is pretty much the WR1 option on the Raiders. They talked him up in the preseason and have backed that up so far, feeding him a 27% target share through six games. He had maintained a positive FPOE average coming into this week without a single TD. Averaging 7.3 receptions on 8.3 targets per game (88%), his catch-rate is likely to regress.

He clearly benefited from WR Tyrell Williams who hasn’t played or practiced since Week 4 as he deals with plantar fasciitis. Williams had a TD in each of the first four games on only 17 total receptions. Waller was producing even when Williams was active, so his return wouldn’t damper his outlook too much, but his red zone role will likely remain boosted at least until Williams returns.