With fantasy football draft season getting into full gear, the Sharp Football Analysis crew got together with some of the best minds in the industry to host a fantasy football mock draft.
The mock took place on July 19th.
The league featured PPR scoring, and starting lineups consisted of a QB, two RBs, three WRs, a TE, and a FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Draft Order:
- Ben Cummins – FootballGuys
- Randy Wayt – RPO Football
- Tom Strachan – Fantasy Sanctuary
- Jon Jeune – Fantasy Football Diagnostics
- LaQuan Jones – NFL Network
- Zachary Krueger – Rotoworld
- Nate Hamilton – Gambling.com Group
- Sam Wagman – FootballGuys
- Joe Volpe – Fantasy Football Analyst
- Michael Hauff – Sharp Football Analysis
- Kate Magdziuk – PFF
- Alex Rikleen – Rotowire
Check out the draft board here.
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Round 1:
- Justin Jefferson – WR1
- Ja'Marr Chase – WR2
- Cooper Kupp – WR3
- Christian McCaffrey – RB1
- Tyreek Hill – WR4
- Travis Kelce – TE1
- Austin Ekeler – RB2
- Bijan Robinson – RB3
- Saquon Barkley – RB4
- Patrick Mahomes – QB1
- Stefon Diggs – WR5
- Jonathan Taylor -RB5
The first seven picks went about as expected. Christian McCaffrey going after Cooper Kupp is not the norm, but the top 7 is pretty set.
Things got a bit odd after that with Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor going ahead of several top receivers.
It is also rare to see Patrick Mahomes or any quarterback in the first round. Ultimately, quarterbacks came off the board earlier in this draft than they traditionally do in industry drafts. It is possible a summer of best ball drafting has skewed the quarterback landscape some.
Because several more quarterbacks were pushed up, taking Mahomes early did not end up hurting Michael too much, but he still would have gotten better value from someone like Stefon Diggs, who went one pick later.
Round 2:
- Derrick Henry – RB6
- CeeDee Lamb – WR6
- A.J. Brown – WR7
- Garrett Wilson – WR8
- Nick Chubb – RB7
- Amon-Ra St. Brown – WR9
- Davante Adams – WR10
- Chris Olave – WR11
- Mark Andrews – TE2
- Jaylen Waddle – WR12
- Tee Higgins – WR13
- DeVonta Smith – WR14
Going back to the Mahomes pick, A.J. Brown fell to Michael in the second round, and if those two picks had been swapped it would look less strange. It might not have been the best strategy, but it ended up working out.
Kate ended up benefitting from the early running back selections, getting both Stefon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb from the 11 spot in a 12-team league. That is an ideal start.
The receiver run started after Nick Chubb, which is not surprising. Both Tony Pollard and Breece Hall come with questions despite the obvious upside that makes them back-end RB1 options.
Derrick Henry is in a similar upside versus risk boat, so it was a bit surprising to see him come off the board at the turn. He should remain the focal point of Tennessee's offense as long as he is there, but his efficiency has slipped two years in a row.
The end of this round is an interesting trio of receivers that share a similar fantasy story. All of Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, and DeVonta Smith have massive contingency value should something happen to the No. 1 receivers on their teams, but there are questions about them returning consistent WR1 value with everyone healthy.
That concern is not as large for Smith, who had a larger target share and more fantasy points per game than A.J. Brown from Week 10 on last season. He and Chris Olave are my favorites from that next tier of receivers.
Round 3:
- Tony Pollard – RB8
- Joe Burrow – QB2
- Deebo Samuel – WR15
- Breece Hall – RB9
- Jalen Hurts – QB3
- DK Metcalf – WR16
- Josh Jacobs – RB10
- Najee Harris – RB11
- Keenan Allen – WR17
- Rhamondre Stevenson – RB12
- Josh Allen – QB4
- Lamar Jackson – QB5
Randy addresses the Joe Burrow pick in the reaction sections at the end of the mock, but reaching for Burrow ahead of Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen, even to complete a stack, is tough to swallow. Burrow did finish as the QB4 in per-game scoring last season, but there was a clear gap between him and the top three options.
In contrast to someone like Lamar Jackson, there is not an obvious path for Burrow to bridge that gap given his rushing numbers appeared back to their pre-injury levels already last season.
Unless he holds out into the season — a Le'Veon Bell learned, doing that does not make a ton of sense — Josh Jacobs looks like a good pick in the third round. His catch totals might be a little volatile considering he only ran 21 pass routes on third down, but he was the RB5 in expected fantasy points last season, and the situation behind him does not look any better this year.
There is a large tier of receivers that all feel about the same starting at WR15 here with Deebo Samuel. This area of the draft is something of a receiver dead zone since it is hard to make a definitive argument for someone like Samuel over someone like Jerry Jeudy, who went in Round 5. This wide tier is one of the reasons getting two of those top 10 receivers is so valuable.
As for Samuel specifically, his touchdown total fell back to its expected number after a massive outlier season in 2021, and he predictably did not live up to his 2022 ADP.
Including his good playoff run, Samuel averaged 13.1 PPR points per game last season, which would have ranked 27th among receivers.
With Christian McCaffrey now around to work the same areas of the field — Samuel's average depth of target was 4.3 last year and has not been above 8.5 in his career — taking Samuel in the third round feels like a bet on another outlier season.
Round 4:
- Joe Mixon – RB13
- Travis Etienne – RB14
- Amari Cooper – WR18
- T.J. Hockenson – TE3
- Jahmyr Gibbs – RB15
- George Kittle – TE4
- Justin Fields – QB6
- Aaron Jones – RB16
- Terry McLaurin – WR19
- DeAndre Hopkins – WR20
- Kyle Pitts – TE5
- Calvin Ridley – WR21
Joe Mixon was bad last season. There is no way around that.
He was dreadfully inefficient despite leading the league in the percentage of carries against light boxes, finishing 34th out of 42 qualifying backs in yards per carry (3.9), 20th in success rate (38.6%), and 36th in yards after contact per rush (2.6).
His RB8 per-game fantasy finish is also inflated by a five-touchdown game against the Panthers, the only time he went over 18 half-PPR points in a game all season.
That said, he has less established competition this season with Samaje Perine gone, he went way under his expected touchdown total last season, and with his contract issue resolved he looks like the clear lead back on a good offense. His ADP will likely climb, but Mixon looks like a value right now.
DeAndre Hopkins proved he still has gas left in the tank last season, but the Tennesee passing game has not been particularly conducive to big fantasy numbers.
Over the last two years, the Titans are dead last in neutral pass frequency and have been 9% under their expected pass rate. Todd Downing is gone, but the passing rates looked almost exactly the same under Arthur Smith, suggesting this is how the Titans want to run their offense.
Titans receivers have been targeted 324 times total over the last two years, the fourth-lowest total in the league over that span.
Bringing in Hopkins could signal a change, but he will have to compete with Treylon Burks (Round 7) for targets in a passing game that likely does not want to pass. That is not a great sign for either player's fantasy value.
Round 5:
- Jerry Jeudy – WR22
- Drake London – WR23
- J.K. Dobbins – RB17
- D.J. Moore – WR24
- Dameon Pierce – RB18
- Kenneth Walker – RB19
- Brandon Aiyuk – WR25
- Christian Watson – WR26
- Alexander Mattison – RB20
- Miles Sanders – RB21
- James Conner – RB22
- Darren Waller – TE6
After drinking every protein shake on the planet, Sam went aggro-RB with four straight to start the draft. That makes Christian Watson, the No. 26 receiver off the board, his default No. 1 receiver.
While not ideal, Watson is the kind of receiver RB-heavy teams should target in this part of the draft. He is a good bet to see over 20% of Green Bay's targets, and over a quarter of his targets last season were 20 air yards or more.
That gives him a profile that can hit even if Jordan Love and the rest of the offense struggle, and Watson has the upside for more if Love is better than expected in his first season as the starter.
Miles Sanders is being slept on a bit this season. The offensive step down is big — although Bryce Young could make it smaller than it looks on paper — but the offensive line change is not as big. Carolina's line finished eighth in ESPN's run block win rate last season and helped the Panthers finish fourth in EPA per rush.
There is also the possibility of more passing game involvement for a player who did catch 50 passes as a rookie. The Colts ranked 9th in running back target rate under Frank Reich from 2018-2021. They had different quarterbacks every season of that run, so it is reasonable to think that above average target rate is at least partly a function of Reich's offense.
It is a concern Darren Waller has played 20 games over the last two seasons, but he has an appealing fantasy profile as the likely focal point of New York's offense based on how he was used in Las Vegas last season.
Waller was behind just Kyle Pitts in air yards per target (13.4) last season. His career average was 8.1 air yards per target heading into 2022. He was able to maintain his efficiency on that usage (65.1% catch rate, 1.58 yards per route run), and New York’s receiving corps is full of players who like to operate close to the line of scrimmage.
That role does not mesh well with Daniel Jones — 29th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in the percentage of his passes that traveled at least 10 yards down the field (27.3%) last season — but it adds some potential upside for Waller.
Round 6:
- Michael Pittman – WR27
- D'Andre Swift – RB23
- Dallas Goedert – TE7
- Chris Godwin – WR28
- Christian Kirk – WR29
- Justin Herbert – QB7
- Mike Evans – WR30
- Tyler Lockett – WR31
- Alvin Kamara – RB24
- Mike Williams – WR32
- Diontae Johnson – WR33
- Trevor Lawrence – QB8
Diontae Johnson is a screaming value at this point in the draft given the positive regression markers for both himself and the Steelers as a whole.
Johnson did not find the end zone last season after scoring 20 combined during his first three seasons. His expected total given his usage was close to seven according to PFF, a massive difference. Even if the Steelers offense stays exactly where it was last year, he should be expected to score more touchdowns in 2023.
But the Steelers offense also has positive regression signs after going 8.8 under their team expected touchdown total given how many yards they gained.
George Pickens could take a step forward after being targeted on just 14.5% of his routes last season, but even if that happens, Johnson is a safe bet for over 120 targets and a big jump in the touchdown department.
Similarly, Justin Herbert is being slept on after he struggled last season. He is now healthy, his receivers are healthy, his line is healthy, and he has an offensive coordinator that will actually allow him to throw the ball down the field.
On throws that travel at least 15 yards, Herbert has averaged 0.62 expected points added per play with a 47.7% success rate, 13 yards per attempt, and an 8.6% touchdown rate in his career.
Those numbers would have ranked 4th, 12th, 9th, and 9th among qualifying quarterbacks last season.
Herbert is primed for a big bounceback.
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Round 7:
- Cam Akers – RB25
- Rachaad White – RB26
- Isiah Pacheco – RB27
- Javonte Williams – RB28
- Dalvin Cook – RB29
- Kadarius Toney – WR34
- George Pickens – WR35
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba – WR36
- Jordan Addison – WR37
- Brandin Cooks – WR38
- Dalton Schultz – TE8
- Treylon Burks – WR39
The No. 2 receiver on a good passing offense with a long history of production is going after a rookie stuck behind two quality receivers. Make it make sense.
Brandin Cooks did not have his best season last year, but he was playing in one of the worst offenses in the league and for a team he no longer wanted. His underlying number in 2021 still looked good (1.98 yards per route, 25.5% route target rate), and he is joining an offense that is missing over 200 targets from last season.
Kadarius Toney makes sense here — this draft was before the early camp injury, so all of this could change — but it is fair to wonder if he is just going to be a high-efficiency gadget player moving forward even if he is healthy.
Toney’s rate stats looked amazing after he joined the Chiefs last season. He averaged 2.63 yards per route run and was targeted on 26.2% of his routes.
Unfortunately, he only ran 65 total routes in seven games, was inactive for three weeks, and never played more than 44% of the offensive snaps in a single game.
Perhaps that usage will jump up in his second season with the team, but it is a big concern his usage did not increase later in the season. He only played 30 snaps total in three playoff games.
The Chiefs have said all the right things about his usage this offseason, and the upside is evident in this offense. Still, a late-round bet on Rashee Rice (Round 12) is more appealing.
Round 8:
- Quentin Johnston – WR40
- Jahan Dotson – WR41
- Antonio Gibson – RB30
- James Cook – RB31
- Deshaun Watson – QB9
- David Montgomery – RB32
- Marquise Brown – WR42
- Samaje Perine – RB33
- Elijah Moore – WR43
- Pat Freiermuth – TE9
- Zach Charbonnet – RB34
- Rashaad Penny – RB35
Deshaun Watson had a rough return to the league. Over his six games, Watson was 24th among quarterbacks in EPA per play and over three percent under his expected completion rate. So why is he going as the QB9 here? The rationale is straightforward.
First, Watson was still productive on the ground even as he struggled as a passer last season. Over his six starts, he was the QB12 in rushing fantasy points per game.
Secondly, Watson was a significantly better passer in Houston than he showed last season. He averaged 8.3 yards per attempt in Houston compared to 6.5 last year. His touchdown rate was 5.9% before last season. His EPA per dropback was 0.15 in Houston, which would have ranked fourth last season.
Perhaps missing nearly two seasons destroyed his ability, but Watson has a much longer history of being good than the six-game sample from last season in which he was forced into a new offense near the end of the season.
Antonio Gibson’s routes per game jumped from 13.9 when J.D. McKissic was healthy last season to 18.1 without McKissic. The targets per game did not follow, but routes are what matter for a player who has consistently been targeted on around 23% of his routes throughout his career.
Even while Brian Robinson (Round 9) touched the ball nearly 19 times a game from Week 6 to Week 17 last year, Gibson was right with him in PPR formats despite playing one fewer game and touching the ball 82 fewer times.
He is clearly the best fantasy bet in this backfield in PPR formats.
Round 9:
- Brian Robinson – RB36
- Michael Thomas – WR44
- Tua Tagovailoa – QB10
- Dak Prescott – QB11
- JuJu Smith-Schuster – WR45
- AJ Dillon – RB37
- Zay Flowers – WR46
- David Njoku – TE10
- Anthony Richardson – QB12
- Courtland Sutton – WR47
- Gabe Davis – WR48
- Rashod Bateman – WR49
It is clear fantasy drafts have no idea what to do with the Baltimore receivers. Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman came off the board in this round, and Odell Beckham was drafted in Round 10. All three went within 15 picks of each other.
Given the expected shift towards the pass and a faster tempo under the new offensive coordinator, there is upside in this passing game as long as Lamar Jackson stays healthy. Bateman would be the best bet to lead the room if his health was assured, but he missed time during OTAs and then did not report to training camp on time.
I would draft them Bateman, Flowers, Beckham right now, but that could change throughout the preseason.
Anthony Richardson is exactly the kind of quarterback to draft on teams that missed out on the truly elite options. He might not start Week 1, and he might really struggle as a passer once he gets on the field, but quarterback is the most replaceable position in standard fantasy leagues. Take the swing on quarterback upside at this point in drafts.
Michael Thomas has played 10 games since 2019. Everyone knows that. He also caught 16 passes for 171 yards and three touchdowns in three games last season. Thomas will likely play second fiddle to Chris Olave even if he is healthy, but he carries massive upside if he is able to stay healthy.
Gabe Davis makes a lot of sense at this price. He dodged all the free agency and trade grenades this offseason, and despite his route inefficiencies, he was still second in targets for one of the best passing games in the league. He may always just be boom or bust, but that is easier to stomach at the end of the ninth round than his ADP last season.
Round 10:
- Chig Okonkwo – TE11
- Khalil Herbert – RB38
- Jerick McKinnon – RB39
- Isaiah Hodgins – WR50
- Darnell Mooney – WR51
- Allen Lazard – WR52
- Jamaal Williams – RB40
- Damien Harris – RB41
- Odell Beckham – WR53
- Elijah Mitchell – RB42
- Devon Achane – RB43
- Evan Engram – TE12
Perhaps it will work out for Devon Achane, and he certainly has the explosive traits to score chunks of fantasy points if he gets the opportunity. The problem is he is the archetype of running back that NFL teams often limit, and he has a more established version of himself ahead of him on the depth chart in Raheem Mostert, who went two rounds later in this draft.
Khalil Herbert is a yard-creating running back. The evidence is pretty clear on that. Unfortunately, the Bears seem to have three of those in him, rookie Roschon Johnson (Round 11) and D'Onta Foreman (Round 12). Taking shots on all three of them makes sense at this point in the draft given their ability and what this running game can be with Justin Fields at quarterback, but the most likely outcome is a value sapping committee.
Isaiah Hodgins was rightfully the first Giants receiver off the board in this draft — Parris Campbell was the only other one selected in the final round. In a receiver room of redundancy, Hodgins stands out as the one player who can offer size on the outside, and he rode that role to a WR41 per-game finish including the playoffs last season.
The Giants offense might just be Saquon Barkley, Darren Waller, and Daniel Jones scrambles, but Hodgins is the best bet of the receivers to return fantasy value.
Round 11:
- Jameson Williams – WR54
- Roschon Johnson – RB44
- Tyler Allgeier – RB45
- Tyler Boyd – WR55
- Jakobi Meyers – WR56
- Dalton Kincaid – TE13
- Adam Thielen – WR57
- Skyy Moore – WR58
- Kendre Miller – RB46
- Jonathan Mingo – WR59
- D.J. Chark – WR60
- Rondale Moore – WR61
This was a round of competing draft approaches.
Some of our drafters went safe with Tyler Boyd, Jakobi Meyers, and Adam Thielen. While Meyers does have contingency value if something happened to Davante Adams — cutting off criticism before it starts, Boyd was the WR67, WR28, WR32, WR55, and WR83 in five games without either Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins last season — the upside for this group is not strong.
On the other hand, players like Jameson Williams, Skyy Moore, Jonathan Mingo, and to an extent Rondale Moore offer a higher ceiling even if they might not be as safe of bets. Those are the type of players I like to target in the double-digit rounds.
Dalton Kincaid should not be going ahead of someone like Greg Dulcich, but this draft cost makes sense for a talented receiving tight end playing in a good passing offense but with questions about playing time.
Round 12:
- Alec Pierce – WR62
- Rashee Rice – WR63
- K.J. Osborn – WR64
- Jayden Reed – WR65
- Nico Collins – WR66
- D'Onta Foreman – RB47
- Tank Bigsby – RB48
- Cole Kmet – TE14
- Romeo Doubs – WR67
- Jaylen Warren – RB49
- Ezekiel Elliott – RB50
- Jerome Ford – RB51
There are some zero-RB heartthrobs in this round and Round 13 below.
The classic old veteran still looking for a home pick with Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette, the young back with strong contingency value pick in Tank Bigsby, Jaylen Warren, Jerome Ford, Tyjae Spears, Chase Brown, and Eric Gray, and the who knows what will happen pick with D'Onta Foreman, Devin Singletary, and Raheem Mostert.
Warren, Spears, Brown, and Foreman are my favorites of those groups, but the logic makes sense for all of them late in drafts.
Both Rashee Rice and K.J. Osborn are being undervalued for the same reason: too much certainty about their spot on the depth chart.
While the recent history of Chiefs rookie receivers is not great, all Rice has ahead of him on the depth chart is vaunted wind sprinter Marquez Valdes-Scantling, oft-injured and underutilized Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore, who could not earn snaps in an equally lackluster receiving corps during his rookie season last year.
Rice might follow the same rookie trend of Moore and Mecole Hardman, but he is the best suited of this group to take on the true No. 1 receiver role Kansas City is desperate to fill.
As for Osborn, Jordan Addison is a first-round pick who likely will earn the No. 2 job, but it is not a given, especially if he cannot stay out of trouble off the field.
Finally, Nico Collins is a great later-round pick. The Texans are likely to be a better passing team with C.J. Stroud, and Collins is best positioned to be the team's No. 1 receiver.
Round 13:
- Devin Singletary – RB52
- Tyjae Spears – RB53
- Michael Gallup – WR68
- Raheem Mostert – RB54
- Leonard Fournette – RB55
- Curtis Samuel – WR69
- Jared Goff – QB13
- Greg Dulcich – TE15
- Eric Gray – RB56
- Chase Brown – RB57
- Tank Dell – WR70
- Tim Patrick – WR71
Like most Broncos not named Jerry Jeudy, Greg Dulcich is getting dinged for how terrible Denver was on offense last season. Even with how bad they were, the Broncos finished 8.1 touchdowns under expected given their yardage total.
Even if they do not take a step forward under Sean Payton, base rate regression should see them improve from a touchdown perspective this season. That would likely make Dulcich, Russell Wilson, and perhaps Courtland Sutton undervalued.
Sutton is a perhaps because of the player drafted at the end of this round.
Tim Patrick is back healthy and was the subject of a glowing report over the summer. Given how inefficient Sutton has been thus far in his career, Patrick could establish himself as the No. 2. The same is true of rookie Marvin Mims, who was not drafted in this mock.
Round 14:
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire – RB58
- Kareem Hunt – RB59
- Parris Campbell – WR72
- Kirk Cousins – QB14
- Cordarrelle Patterson – RB60
- Sam LaPorta – TE16
- Kenneth Gainwell – RB61
- Daniel Jones – QB15
- Rashid Shaheed – WR73
- Gerald Everett – TE17
- John Metchie – WR74
- Jeff Wilson – RB62
There is far too much certainty about D'Andre Swift being the Eagles' No. 1 back. Rashaad Penny went 32 picks after Swift in this draft, and Kenneth Gainwell was available in the final round following his mini-breakout in the playoffs. This situation should be treated a lot more like the Miami backfield than it has been so far in draft season.
Speaking of, Jeff Wilson‘s ADP is interesting. He essentially split carries with Mostert after joining the Dolphins and finished just one spot below Mostert in the per-game fantasy rankings over the final nine weeks (RB32 vs. RB33). Achane profiles as a much bigger threat to Mostert, whose profile coming out of college is eerily similar to Achane's.
The Dolphins have an awful schedule, and Wilson was nothing more than a back-end FLEX option in deeper leagues last season. Still, there is a decent chance he retains that same role moving forward no matter what happens between Mostert and Achane.
There is a decent chance Cordarrelle Patterson is the No. 3 receiver for the Falcons this season and also gets some touches out of the backfield. This is by no means a passing game to attack, but taking Patterson in the last round to see what happens in training camp makes sense.
As mentioned above, the Texans improved at quarterback and have a lot of positive regression markers. Taking a shot on John Metchie in the last round makes a lot of sense.
Reactions:
Nate Hamilton
“I think Sam forgot this was a PPR draft with his first 4 picks…”
Randy Wayt
I picked my spot as No. 2 in this draft specifically to set up a Bengals triple stack. Tee Higgins fell to me and I over-drafted Joe Burrow.
Drake London and Kyle Pitts fell to me in the 4th and 5th, and I could not pass on Diontae Johnson getting 140 targets every year in the 6th.
I got sniped on Cam Akers. I was taking him to be my RB1 in the 7th round, and it didn’t work out. But with RB being 6 out of my next 7 picks I should be able to find suitable players every week.
Michael Thomas as my WR5 is kind of a dream. And with my last pick, I had to take the cancer survivor. I’m rooting for John Metchie this year.
Alex Rikleen
Given how many WRs are going early this year, I'm frequently loving RB-heavy starts.
Especially with Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry, who were universal top-5ish overall last year and are both back in very similar situations.
My only regret is passing on the Drake London/Brandon Aiyuk combo to take Lamar Jackson at the 3-4 turn. Thought one of them would get back to me.
In hindsight, I'd like my team better with one of them and Kirk Cousins in the last round. But overall pleased.
This is a FREE PREVIEW of the Sharp Fantasy Football Draft Kit, one of the best resources to get you prepared for the 2023 fantasy football season.