Fantasy football is a fluid game in which the value of players rises and falls with every performance.
A big week can promote a fringe player to must-start status while a bad run could relegate a once-heralded player to the bench.
In stock watch, we'll keep track of those big performances and duds, predict how underperforming and overperforming players will do moving forward, and identify fantasy football sleepers who could be on the brink of a breakout.
Fantasy Football Stock Up, Week 15:
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens
Yeah, these guys have been at the top of the position for most of the season, but their recent admission into the 99 Club by our friends at Madden offers a great opportunity to look at their remaining schedule and outlook exiting the bye week.
Even with Josh Allen’s record-setting fantasy performance in Week 14, Jackson leads the quarterback position with 24.7 fantasy points per game and a stellar 0.56 fantasy points per dropback.
That per dropback efficiency is aided by his ability as a ball carrier.
Jackson leads all quarterbacks with 678 rushing yards, averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
He uses his speed (95 Madden rating) and change of direction ability (96 Madden rating) to create big plays, ranking fourth among qualified quarterbacks in the percentage of his carries to gain at least 10 yards.
There are some concerns about his schedule moving into the fantasy playoffs, however.
The Ravens are expected to trounce the Giants on Sunday, a game script that would limit Jackson’s opportunities to score fantasy points even if he is efficient.
The Giants rank 25th in yards per pass attempt allowed but 13th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in part because they have faced just 372 pass attempts this season, second to last.
In Week 16, Jackson gets a Steelers defense that limited him to 207 passing yards, 46 rushing yards, 1 passing score, and 1 interception back in Week 11.
Jackson will get the Steelers at home this time around, and he has been good enough to trust in any matchup.
As for Henry, he is walking into what could be his matchup of the season for the same reasons we might not get a ceiling outcome from Jackson.
Not only are the Giants a defense we like to target for running backs in fantasy, but the implied game script suggests we could see a lot of Henry on Sunday.
The Giants allow 4.8 yards per carry on running back runs, 27th in the league, and have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position.
Importantly for this matchup, the Giants rank dead last in yards after contact allowed on running back runs, and we know Henry uses his spectacular stiff arm (99 Madden rating) and break tackle ability (97 Madden rating) to create yards after first contact.
Given the matchup and potential volume, King Henry should be in for a royal performance on Sunday.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons
Robinson has been good all season, currently ranking as the RB7 in per game fantasy scoring, but he has offered a lot more to fantasy players of late as the Falcons have put more on his plate.
Atlanta has bumped up his usage rate over the last six weeks (five games), and Robinson has been the RB4 over that span.
After getting 61.4% of the running back carries over the first 8 games, Robinson has seen 70.2% of the running back carries in the last five including 71.4% of those in goal-to-go situations.
Unsurprisingly, then, he has scored 4 times in those five games.
He should have ample opportunity to put those extra carries to good use over the final month of the season with matchups against the Raiders, Giants, Commanders, and Panthers on deck.
Those teams have given up the 14th, 8th, 18th, and most fantasy points to running backs and rank 19th, 27th, 31st, and 30th in yards per carry allowed per running back rush.
The one thing missing from Robinson’s game this season has been consistent big plays.
He currently ranks 46th among qualified backs with just 8.8% of his carries going for 10 yards or more.
That is surprising given his speed (91 Madden rating) and ability to make people miss (93 juke move Madden rating).
That soft schedule should give him a good opportunity to get back on track in the explosive play department, as well.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers
The circumstances surrounding Hubbard’s increasing stock are not pleasant.
On Sunday, Jonathon Brooks suffered a season-ending ACL tear to the same knee he injured at the end of last season when he was in college.
While that is a disappointing development for a talented young player, it opens the door for Hubbard to be a workhorse again.
Over the first 10 weeks, Hubbard was third in the league behind just Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams in workload, handling 79.3% of Carolina’s running back carries.
He has 15 or more carries in 9 of 13 games for a team that has three wins all year (consistent negative game script), and he has more than 20 carries in three games including 26 last week against the Eagles.
The sledding should be much easier for Hubbard this week against the Cowboys, who rank 18th in the league allowing 4.4 yards per carry to running backs.
Dallas ranks 25th in yards before contact allowed on those running back runs, and Hubbard has shown the ball carrier vision (87 Madden rating) to take advantage of those holes.
Hubbard’s fantasy case is also aided by an improving Panthers offense under the resurgent Bryce Young.
Since their bye week, the Panthers rank 15th in points per drive (2.2) despite playing a solid Chiefs defense and a shutdown Eagles defense in two of those three games.
Carolina averaged 1.48 points per drive over their first 10 games, 29th in the league over that span.
Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings
After a quiet start to the season that included a couple of missed games, Addison has exploded over the last four weeks.
He is averaging 102.5 receiving yards per game over his last four with 5 touchdowns including the 3 he put up against the Falcons on Sunday.
He ranks fifth among qualified receivers in yards per route run (3.15) over that span while averaging 17.8 yards per catch (10th).
As that yards per catch average suggests, Addison has consistently created big plays, with 17.4% of his catches going for at least 20 yards over that span, showcasing his ability to get open down the field (86 deep route running Madden rating).
While Addison is unlikely to out-target Justin Jefferson the rest of the season – he leads him 35 to 29 over the last four games – he has established himself as a primary target in one of the better passing offenses in the league.
Once a boom or bust FLEX type, Addison is getting enough targets to have a decent floor with both big-play and touchdown weekly upside.
Even with some tough matchups on the horizon, Addison has a good case to be in fantasy lineups every week.
Fantasy Football Stock Down, Week 15:
Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
Kamara has been one of the best draft picks of the fantasy season, but his ability to consistently produce points is suddenly a concern heading into the fantasy playoffs.
With Derek Carr almost certainly out this week and likely for the rest of the season, though the Saints have yet to admit that, Kamara will once again have either Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler at quarterback.
With those two guys at quarterback from Week 6 to Week 8, the Saints were second to last in points per drive (0.92) and 27th in yards per play (4.7).
Kamara was the RB27 during those three weeks.
He has been the RB3 in his other 11 games.
The silver lining is Kamara’s ability as a pass catcher and ability to get open quickly (81 short route running Madden rating).
Kamara has seen 23.8% of the targets with Carr off the field this season, and some of those looks came with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed healthy. Both of the receivers are now on injured reserve.
Assuming he does not lose too many goal-line carries to Kendre Miller, Kamara might be able to stack enough catches and a large enough share of whatever points the Saints muster to remain a fantasy starter.
Still, Kamara’s rest of season fantasy outlook is much worse today than it was before the Carr injury.
Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers
Herbert is undoubtedly a very good quarterback (86 overall Madden rating), but his fantasy performances have not always matched up with his talent.
That had changed with Herbert rushing more earlier this season.
From Week 8 to Week 12, Herbert averaged 35.4 rushing yards per game and scored twice on the ground.
He was the QB7 over that run.
Herbert has 13 rushing yards total over the last two games, however, with just 1 total passing touchdown.
The absence of Ladd McConkey did not help his cause against the Chiefs, but he has now thrown for multiple touchdowns in just four games this season.
He has 0 passing scores in three games.
Things could certainly turn around in a good matchup against the Bucs this week – Tampa allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks – but Herbert attempted just 23 passes for 147 scoreless yards in an equally appealing spot against the Falcons two weeks ago.
Unless he runs more (unlikely given his injury) or is pushed into more passing volume, it will be tough for Herbert to hit a real ceiling fantasy outcome week to week.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons
What is left to say about Kyle Pitts?
He has one catch total in two games since Atlanta’s bye, and he has seen more than 20% of Atlanta’s targets in exactly one game this season.
For the season, he has 12 fewer targets than Ray–Ray McCloud.
To add injury to that insult, Pitts is not getting the kind of targets he needs to be successful.
Pitts has never consistently created after the catch on short targets, struggling to break tackles (63 Madden rating) and get into the open field.
This season, Pitts is 31st among qualified tight ends in yards after catch on targets of 9 air yards or less, and his YAC rate on those throws is right around his career average.
He is averaging 6.2 yards per target on those chances, 25th among qualified tight ends.
Despite those struggles, those short targets make up 65% of his opportunities this season.
They made up 48% of his career targets prior to this year.
Meanwhile, Pitts averages 13 yards per target on intermediate throws (10 to 19 air yards), which is 12th among qualified tight ends.
Those targets make up just 25% of his opportunities this season.
Until he starts getting more targets, especially targets down the field, Pitts is not a playable fantasy option.
