Fantasy Football Thoughts: Which Players Are Mispriced?

I’ve been asked a bunch in the past few weeks on my fantasy football rankings. I don’t want to necessarily post full lists but using the ADP here at Cbssports.com I will give you who I personally like as compared with where they are currently being drafted.

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Who I DON’T like based on their current ADP:

• Patrick Mahomes– #6 overall

As great as Mahomes was last year, his 8.6% touchdown rate is going to be virtually impossible to replicate. As I noted here about Russell Wilson in my post about liking the under win total for the Seattle Seahawks, since 2004 six QBs have posted a touchdown rate above 8% and none were able to reach that figure again the next season. Only one QB, Aaron Rodgers in 2012, was even able to reach 7% the next season. The average touchdown rate the next season among those six QBs was only 6.1%. This is not to say Mahomes can’t have an excellent season, but 50 touchdowns seems like an insurmountable number. No QB should ever be drafted in the first round, let alone sixth overall. 

• James Conner- #7 overall

Conner was excellent last season taking over for Le’Veon Bell, producing 13 rushing touchdowns. Conner was great inside the 10-yard line, as he was fourth in attempts inside the 5 and seventh inside the 10 among running backs. Not only did he receive a lot of goal line attempts, but he was seventh in the NFL, turning those attempts inside the 10 into touchdowns. Short yardage touchdown runs tend to regress year over year and so I wouldn’t bank on Conner being able to efficiently convert as many attempts into TDs as he did last season.

In addition, I expect Jaylen Samuels to also get more work, especially on third downs, and take away some of Conner’s production. Remember, Samuels didn’t get significant action until Conner got hurt starting in Week 13 against Oakland. When Conner came back in a win or go home Week 17 game against Cincinnati, Conner only received 14 carries and 3 receiving targets. Samuels was a big part of that game, with 8 targets and 7 receptions for 40 yards. I would have Conner closer to the 11-13 overall range.

• Le’Veon Bell- #8 overall

Count me as someone who doesn’t think Bell is a slam dunk top-10 fantasy pick this season. Yes, he will be a bell-cow but he went from running behind a Steelers OL that ranked eighth, third, and seventh in Adjusted Line Yards in Bell’s final three seasons in Pittsburgh to a Jets OL that ranked dead last in 2018. 

Also, the emergence of Ty Montgomery in the preseason could be a signal that Bell won’t be nearly the workhorse he was in Pittsburgh. The good news for Bell is the Jets play one of the easier schedules in the NFL this year so he should see lots of fourth-quarter runs. I have Bell as my 11th-ranked running back and more like a mid-late second-round pick. I am taking Joe Mixon ahead of Bell.

• Mark Ingram- #44 overall

Even in New Orleans with the No. 2 ranked OL by Adjusted Line Yards, Ingram averaged only 4.7 yards per carry and was only 31st in Expected Points Added among running backs last season. Ingram has seen his YPC decrease two years in a row. Ingram isn’t a top pass receiving back in general, but he has benefitted from being in a pass friendly offense in New Orleans where the Saints ranked first in the NFL in target share to running backs.

Now he goes to a Baltimore offense where Lamar Jackson only threw to running backs on 16% of total targets, fourth-least in the NFL last season. In addition, Ingram will have to compete for carries with Jackson and rookie speedster Justice Hill. I have Ingram closer to my 35th running back let alone 44th overall. I’ll never touch Ingram in any of my leagues.

Other Mid Round guys I probably won’t be drafting:

• Drew Brees (#6 QB) – fell off a cliff late last season and New Orleans is a run-centric offense
• Kenyan Drake (#63 Overall) – not interested in an RB splitting carries on a bottom-2 NFL team
• Rashad Penny (#99 Overall) – uber inefficient RB who is on a team that will need to throw more in 2019
• Calvin Ridley (#55 Overall) – 10 TDs on only 64 receptions is not a sustainable rate. Good player but too many mouths to feed in ATL with Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman’s return.
• Donte Moncrief (#128 Overall) – Way too many people have been burned by Moncrief’s potential. Sooner or later James Washington will take over the No. 2 WR role in Pittsburgh

Who I LIKE as compared to their ADP:

• Leonard Fournette- #22 overall

We soon forget that Fournette was a consensus first-round pick going into last season. He obviously flopped but let’s remember his circumstances. He had to play in an offense where Blake Bortles played as bad as a quarterback could last season.

Fournette thrives on salting games away against tired defenses in the fourth quarter. In his rookie season when Jacksonville was an elite playoff team, Fournette had his highest yards per carry in the fourth quarter at 5.3 on 55 carries. Last season when the Jags struggled, he could only muster 3.7 YPC on 16 carries. With the Jags expecting much more competent quarterback play with Nick Foles, the team should be in much more favorable game scripts in the second halves of games

Also, expect Fournette to be more active in the passing game. With T.J. Yeldon now gone to Buffalo, with him went 119 total targets (5 per game) in the last two seasons. Expect Alfred Blue to take a few of those targets on third down but also expect Fournette to receive more than the 3.5 targets per game he has seen so far in career. I have Fournette as a solid mid-second-round pick in a standard 12 team league.

• Devonta Freeman- #29 overall

Freeman may be my most underrated high-end fantasy running back. I spoke in detail here about why I think Freeman will have a great year and has a shot to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns. You probably won’t have to take him in the second round but he should produce like a late-first ort mid-second-round running back.

• Sony Michel- #47 overall

How Michel is being drafted below Mark Ingram is mind blowing to me. His touchdown upside was discussed here and he is the main goal line back on one of the best offenses in the NFL. Seeing as how New England has the easiest schedule in the NFL, Michel will see a direct benefit to all the second-half carries as the Patriots are protecting leads.

• Miles Sanders- #74 overall

Sanders posted the fourth-highest SPARQ score among running backs at the combine and easily has more game-breaking ability than his main competition in Jordan Howard. I see Howard as the short yardage back with Sanders taking a big chunk of the main carries.

Sanders is also a much better receiving back as compared to Howard, who really can only be on the field in obvious running situations. As I have the Eagles as a true Super Bowl contender, any time I can have the lead back on a potentially 12-win team I will always take him. In addition, during the fantasy playoffs in Weeks 14-16, the Eagles get to play the Giants, Redskins, and then the Cowboys at home in Week 16. They will be large favorites against both the Giants and Redskins and will be a favorite as well at home against Dallas. Sanders could see plenty of opportunities in that three-game stretch.

Other Mid Round guys I like more than ADP

• Dede Westbrook (#80 Overall) – The clear No. 1 option on a Jags team with a competent QB and a pass defense schedule that ranks as the second-easiest in the NFL. He has top 20 WR upside.
• James Washington (not listed) – Washington is one of the best deep ball wide receivers to come out of college in the last 10 years. He may not have consistent weeks but with Antonio Brown’s 168 targets now available and his long ball TD upside, Washington is a nice upside candidate.
• Jamison Crowder (#179 Overall) – Crowder will fit nicely as Darnold’s security blanket in the slot. They have already shown chemistry in the preseason and with Darnold’s assumed leap, Crowder should benefit especially in 1-point PPR leagues.
• Justice Hill (#176 Overall) – As discussed with Ingram above, Hill is going to barge into the Ravens backfield. With his 4.4 speed, Hill’s breakaway ability gives him a big play advantage over Ingram.