- Wide receivers accounted for 64.3% of the league’s receiving touchdowns last season, their highest rate since 2012.
- Top-12 wideouts accounted for their largest share of targets, receptions, and yards within the position since 2018.
- Offenses are moving their best player around the formation, in the slot, and getting them more shallow targets than ever before.
As we continue to roll on through the offseason and prepare for the 2024 fantasy season, we are taking a top-down look at production for each fantasy position.
On Monday, we kicked things off by looking at how offenses have lagged as a whole across the league over the past two seasons.
Spinning off that look at the league as a whole, we dug into trends occurring within the quarterback, tight end, and running back positions.
Now, let’s take a look at the wide receivers.
League WR Usage Since 2010
| YEAR | TGT/Gm | League % | Rec/Gm | Lg% | ReYD/Gm | Lg% | ReTD/Gm | Lg% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 38.4 | 59.72% | 24.2 | 55.71% | 305.3 | 64.58% | 1.8 | 64.32% |
| 2022 | 37.9 | 59.41% | 24.0 | 56.10% | 302.1 | 64.43% | 1.7 | 60.40% |
| 2021 | 39.5 | 59.55% | 24.9 | 55.89% | 311.0 | 63.71% | 1.9 | 62.02% |
| 2020 | 40.6 | 60.02% | 26.5 | 57.79% | 334.0 | 65.53% | 2.1 | 61.42% |
| 2019 | 39.1 | 58.34% | 24.1 | 54.43% | 315.5 | 62.71% | 1.9 | 60.30% |
| 2018 | 39.5 | 58.84% | 24.9 | 55.51% | 318.9 | 62.67% | 2.1 | 62.81% |
| 2017 | 38.7 | 57.83% | 22.7 | 53.58% | 293.2 | 61.19% | 1.7 | 58.70% |
| 2016 | 42.6 | 60.60% | 25.5 | 56.72% | 326.3 | 63.82% | 2.0 | 63.74% |
| 2015 | 41.3 | 58.47% | 24.6 | 54.65% | 322.5 | 62.22% | 2.0 | 61.64% |
| 2014 | 41.3 | 60.07% | 24.8 | 56.63% | 323.6 | 64.26% | 1.9 | 60.10% |
| 2013 | 41.4 | 59.26% | 23.9 | 55.07% | 318.8 | 63.17% | 1.9 | 60.07% |
| 2012 | 41.0 | 59.88% | 23.6 | 55.81% | 315.7 | 64.17% | 1.9 | 64.86% |
| 2011 | 39.3 | 58.73% | 22.2 | 54.39% | 307.1 | 62.73% | 1.8 | 63.49% |
| 2010 | 39.0 | 58.68% | 22.3 | 54.34% | 295.8 | 62.61% | 1.9 | 63.91% |
If you have been keeping up with this series this week, then it is no surprise to see that counting stats among wide receivers have followed the league as a whole in decreasing since the offensive explosion in 2020.
That said, wide receivers were able to improve a tick across the board over their 2022 output.
In the context of the league, wideouts had their lowest share of the league’s receptions since 2019.
But as you can also see, the share of the league’s receiving yardage has been strong within the position even with the depressed output overall among the league.
The past two seasons have seen wideouts post their two highest shares of the league’s yardage outside of 2020.
Wide receivers also accounted for 64.3% of the league’s receiving touchdowns last season, their highest rate since 2012.
Usage at the position remains strong and teams are incorporating wide receivers heavily into their offense, even if we do appear to have leveled off in terms of the rate of offenses using three or more wideouts per dropback.
Percentage of Wide Receivers on the Field Per Dropback:
| Year | 2+ WR% | 3+WR% | 4+WR% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 96.49% | 74.24% | 1.41% |
| 2022 | 95.64% | 73.76% | 1.05% |
| 2021 | 95.74% | 73.39% | 3.54% |
| 2020 | 95.39% | 73.49% | 3.80% |
| 2019 | 95.87% | 72.42% | 3.58% |
| 2018 | 96.26% | 75.28% | 2.52% |
| 2017 | 95.74% | 72.96% | 2.71% |
| 2016 | 96.48% | 75.27% | 4.80% |
| 2015 | 95.75% | 70.27% | 4.50% |
| 2014 | 96.19% | 69.56% | 3.43% |
| 2013 | 95.94% | 67.57% | 3.06% |
When NFL teams set out to throw the football, they had at least three wide receivers on the field 74.2% of the time.
There was only one team last season that did not use 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers) on over 50% of their dropbacks.
That team was the Falcons.
Not only was Atlanta below 50% in the rate of 11 personnel used on their passing plays last season, but they were also at just 14.2%.
The Falcons were just playing a different game than the rest of the league last season. Unsuccessfully, which is why they are rolling over a new regime.
21 teams used 11 personnel on at least 70% of their dropbacks in 2023.
But after we had seven teams use that grouping 80% or more of their dropbacks in 2022, only two teams cleared 80% last season.
Don't miss out on the best fantasy football coverage in the business
Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.
Best ball season is in full swing, and traditional drafts are right around the corner.
Sharp Football has everything you need to prepare for both in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.
Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.
Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!
Fantasy WR1 (Top-12) Share of Wide Receiver Production Since 2010
| WR1 | PPR PT % | TGT % | REC % | REYD % | RETD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19.87% | 17.66% | 19.11% | 20.12% | 22.06% |
| 2022 | 19.57% | 17.37% | 18.05% | 19.96% | 23.62% |
| 2021 | 19.43% | 16.74% | 17.92% | 18.87% | 21.49% |
| 2020 | 18.05% | 15.53% | 16.49% | 17.52% | 23.73% |
| 2019 | 18.45% | 17.03% | 18.38% | 18.56% | 19.58% |
| 2018 | 20.15% | 18.11% | 19.68% | 20.33% | 21.24% |
| 2017 | 19.23% | 17.57% | 19.10% | 19.76% | 19.31% |
| 2016 | 17.88% | 15.78% | 17.07% | 17.50% | 22.09% |
| 2015 | 20.51% | 18.39% | 19.75% | 20.41% | 23.42% |
| 2014 | 20.36% | 16.79% | 18.37% | 20.39% | 25.36% |
| 2013 | 20.35% | 17.85% | 18.67% | 20.60% | 24.07% |
| 2012 | 20.31% | 18.28% | 19.74% | 21.04% | 20.86% |
| 2011 | 19.74% | 16.27% | 17.97% | 20.17% | 22.62% |
| 2010 | 19.11% | 17.21% | 17.80% | 19.23% | 24.27% |
An interesting transition that we have seen the league make is that we have seen a spike in output for the league’s best receivers.
Just about every team in your fantasy league had points on their roster at the wide receiver position in recent seasons due to the rise in 3WR sets as a whole across the NFL.
In turn, paired with the amount of three or more wideouts on the field, that impacted the value of the WR1 in fantasy circles for a stretch over the 2016-2022 seasons.
When WR3 sets began to first spike, the WR2 and WR3 depth of fantasy scorers began to cut into the output of the top scorers in the league.
We have now seen that shift back in favor of those alpha wide receivers.
WR1 scorers have seen their share in wide receiver scoring rise in each of the past three seasons.
Top-12 wideouts accounted for their largest share of targets, receptions, and yards within the position since 2018.
Last season, three different wide receivers had target shares of over 30%.
That was the most in a season since 2014.
Another eight wide receivers received 28% or more of the team targets.
In 2022, just six receivers in total had target shares of 28% or more with two over 30%.
In 2021, it was just four at 28% or more with one player at 30%.
In 2020, there were three wideouts over 28% with zero at 30%.
You get the point.
The NFL has done an increasingly better job of getting the football to their No. 1 wideouts.
We are not quite back to where things were in the early 2010s, but teams are getting the ball more successfully to their top wide receiver.
I don’t believe this is an accident and relates to the defensive changes we have covered to open this series.
With the overwhelming decrease in man coverage and the rise in leaving the middle of the field open, we are seeing a different type of usage across lead receivers than the fantasy days of yesteryear.
WR1 OVERALL SCORERS SINCE 2010
| WR1 | Year | PPR/Gm | Air/Tgt | Slot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 2023 | 23.7 | 9.5 | 53.3% |
| Justin Jefferson | 2022 | 21.7 | 10.2 | 23.5% |
| Cooper Kupp | 2021 | 25.9 | 8.6 | 63.2% |
| Davante Adams | 2020 | 25.6 | 8.9 | 26.3% |
| Michael Thomas | 2019 | 23.4 | 8.1 | 35.8% |
| Tyreek Hill | 2018 | 20.9 | 11.4 | 38.7% |
| Antonio Brown | 2017 | 22.2 | 14.4 | 9.4% |
| Antonio Brown | 2016 | 20.5 | 11.1 | 9.2% |
| Antonio Brown | 2015 | 24.3 | 11.3 | 12.3% |
| Antonio Brown | 2014 | 24.2 | 10.4 | 12.3% |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2013 | 19.9 | 10.4 | 8.9% |
| Calvin Johnson | 2012 | 21.4 | 13.7 | 23.2% |
| Calvin Johnson | 2011 | 22.6 | 15.0 | 14.5% |
| Roddy White | 2010 | 19.9 | 10.1 | 10.1% |
No longer are the prototypical X receivers at the front of the fantasy landscape, and lead wideouts are being used more diversely.
Offenses are moving their best player around the formation, in the slot, and getting them more shallow targets than ever before.
2023 WR1 Usage Rates:
| Player | PPG | Air/Tgt | Short Tgt% | Deep Tgt% | Slot % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 23.7 | 9.5 | 64.0% | 13.8% | 53.3% |
| Tyreek Hill | 23.5 | 10.8 | 52.0% | 20.5% | 34.1% |
| Keenan Allen | 21.5 | 9.7 | 66.0% | 10.7% | 58.2% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 20.7 | 7.8 | 71.9% | 9.1% | 49.4% |
| Justin Jefferson | 20.2 | 12.6 | 46.0% | 24.0% | 24.0% |
| Puka Nacua | 17.6 | 9.1 | 62.5% | 11.9% | 30.0% |
| Nico Collins | 17.4 | 10.9 | 55.9% | 17.4% | 17.6% |
| A.J. Brown | 17.0 | 11.7 | 60.8% | 18.4% | 24.9% |
| D.J. Moore | 16.9 | 10.9 | 61.8% | 22.1% | 18.6% |
| Mike Evans | 16.6 | 14.0 | 46.3% | 26.5% | 24.8% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 16.4 | 8.7 | 64.1% | 13.8% | 24.8% |
| Deebo Samuel | 16.2 | 6.6 | 76.4% | 9.0% | 26.4% |
Short Tgt = Behind the line to 9 yards downfield
Deep Tgt = 20+ yards downfield
Looking at the WR1 scorers in points per game from last season, you can see how diverse usage has become a staple in finding the most successful targets.
Only Nico Collins and D.J. Moore had a slot rate below 20% from this group last season while the crux of the group was at least near a 25% slot rate or higher.
Half of the group above averaged single-digit air yards per target.
Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson were the only wideouts above that had fewer than 50% of their targets behind the line of scrimmage or below 10 yards downfield.
Only four of those wideouts had 20% or more of their targets on throws 20 or more yards downfield.
If the NFL is going to operate similarly this upcoming season or even swerve further into condensing offenses to counter defensive approaches, focusing on the WR1 group having increased elevation at the position is noteworthy.
Even if we do not get back to the elite WR1 dominance of the early 2010s, giving more emphasis to the best players at the position supports the movement of aggressively drafting the position that we are seeing in drafts this summer.
If we are going to use this to find some micro-edges in the current ADP, here are the top 36 wide receivers in draft position (minus Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers) and how often each of them moved to the interior last season.
| Player | ADP | 2023 Slot % |
|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 53.3% |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 34.1% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 24.8% |
| Justin Jefferson | 4 | 24.0% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 5 | 49.4% |
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 24.9% |
| Puka Nacua | 7 | 30.0% |
| Garrett Wilson | 8 | 29.1% |
| Drake London | 10 | 18.8% |
| Chris Olave | 11 | 38.0% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 12 | 17.8% |
| Nico Collins | 13 | 17.6% |
| Davante Adams | 14 | 12.3% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 15 | 18.3% |
| Deebo Samuel | 16 | 26.4% |
| Mike Evans | 17 | 24.8% |
| DeVonta Smith | 18 | 24.3% |
| DK Metcalf | 20 | 12.6% |
| D.J. Moore | 21 | 18.6% |
| Cooper Kupp | 22 | 65.4% |
| Stefon Diggs | 23 | 31.3% |
| Michael Pittman | 24 | 26.4% |
| Tank Dell | 25 | 23.0% |
| Zay Flowers | 26 | 34.8% |
| Tee Higgins | 27 | 18.9% |
| George Pickens | 28 | 17.0% |
| Amari Cooper | 29 | 17.9% |
| Christian Kirk | 30 | 66.5% |
| Terry McLaurin | 31 | 13.2% |
| Marquise Brown | 32 | 17.0% |
| Keenan Allen | 33 | 58.2% |
| Jayden Reed | 34 | 72.3% |
| Calvin Ridley | 35 | 17.2% |
| Chris Godwin | 36 | 33.3% |
You do not have to be so rigid and avoid any wide receiver with a low rate of usage from the slot.
We still want our wideouts to get targets that come with inherent upside downfield, but a more diverse usage tree allows a wide receiver access to more target opportunities that come with a higher success rate as opposed to those wideouts who must live on opportunities that are playing into the hands of the current defensive landscape.
Ideally, we always want to have our cake and eat it.
That gap in lack of diversity could be the difference between a ceiling outcome for a player and one that keeps a player as a fantasy WR2 or a WR3.
George Pickens has been a riser for me throughout the summer since his target share projects to be high, but pairing his lack of diverse usage from last season with how limited Drake London was in Arthur Smith’s offense highlights how Pickens could have his upside outcome capped.
London should see a significant rise in slot opportunities, but the Falcons may view Kyle Pitts as a big slot himself.
Atlanta’s new offensive system has never had a player like Pitts in it. The battle for whom the Falcons utilize more in the slot between Pitts and London could be telling who ends up being the better value this season.
Both Nico Collins and D.J. Moore were able to hit last season despite a more linear type of usage, but both of their teams added potential target threats that also play inside at a high rate.
Even if Stefon Diggs or Keenan Allen do not challenge being the lead targets, they are good bets to prevent Collins and Moore access to more diverse usage, which could prevent each from another apex outcome in 2024.
This has been a large part of what has hindered DK Metcalf from ever getting over the hump in fantasy.
Metcalf has never been in the slot for 20% of his snaps in any season, which has stopped him from drawing fantasy-smoothing target opportunities.
After seeing a career-low 12.4% deep target rate in 2022, Metcalf was back up to a 21.8% deep target rate last season with Jaxon Smith–Njigba arriving and soaking up shallow opportunities in the offense.
The lack of “free squares” or “easy button targets” is what impacted Davante Adams last season.
Adams was forced to live on a diet of downfield throws from inaccurate passers.
His slot rate went from 21.2% in 2022 down to 12.3% last season while losing Derek Carr.
29.7% of the targets Adams had on throws 10 or more yards downfield were inaccurate.
The league rate for wide receivers was 21.8%.
After scoring 10 touchdowns on throws over 10 yards downfield in 2022, Adams had just two of those touchdowns in 2023.
Way Too Many Words, Man:
- Wide Receivers have rebounded in raising their involvement in NFL passing games.
- Target WR3 options in offenses that have high dropback rates paired with a high 11 personnel rate.
- WR1 usage has been on the rise due to a spike in full-field usage, making front-end fantasy options at the position more valuable.
- When selecting wideouts as a potential WR1, look for creative usage opportunities and access to more targets that come with a higher success rate.
