There is a narrative that the preseason is meaningless. Tell that to John Harbaugh, who has a 33-15 record all time. While the points scored and results only matter to sports-bettors, there are some hidden nuggets to be discovered for those who look. There is some information to take away from the preseason, the biggest of which is player snaps with the first-team offense. But not all of our fantasy questions can be answered in those four games, which leaves us with a few mysteries heading into the regular season.
Who's catching the passes in Arizona?
Kliff Kingsbury has yet to unveil his no-huddle, Air-Raid offense at the NFL level with Kyler Murray at the helm. The wait is almost over, but, what fantasy options will benefit most?
When Kingsbury coached Texas Tech, wide receivers got the bulk of the receptions with 79%. Per Chris Raybon, no-huddle offenses average 0.4 more yards per attempt and a 7% bump in success rate. For QB runs, the no-huddle boost is even more impressive: a full extra yard per attempt and a 27% increase in success rate.
As is common in preseason games, Kingsbury ran a bland offense with the starters and he’s kept his strategy under wraps thus far. This keeps opposing teams in the dark, but us fantasy owners as well. We can assume the receivers will benefit most between the 20’s based on Kingsbury’s history at Texas Tech, but which ones?
The sure-handed Larry Fitzgerald is now 36. The depth chart shows him as the left WR, but he has played in the slot in recent years. He could end up being relevant in PPR as even a short-range red-zone target. Michael Crabtree was a touchdown machine for years with Oakland, but his status is in question for Week 1 and he hasn’t looked like the younger version of himself since his Achilles injury. He is going undrafted. Perhaps they will feature David Johnson in the red zone. As a first-round pick in fantasy drafts, he is an auto-start.
There has been some industry excitement on the potential of 2018 second-round pick Christian Kirk and rookie, Andy Isabella, both receivers who should boom weeks — though Kirk appears to be well ahead of Isabella as the season starts.
Looking at this as an equation, we have the Air-Raid + no-huddle = extra targets. That might be enough to support two startable fantasy WRs, especially in PPR. We still have to figure out which two they will be.
Will Gase pick up the pace?
In the last three seasons, Adam Gase’s Dolphins were committed to running a slow-paced offense. They averaged 58 plays per game, which greatly limited the upside of fantasy options. Now as head coach of the Jets, we have yet to see if he will consistently speed up the pace. However, there is room for optimism on two fronts. Connor Hughes of The Athletic reported that Gase felt he had to slow the offense down in Miami due to the personnel. During the preseason, Gase had the Jets using an up-tempo offense fairly often.
This bodes well for Le’Veon Bell and the receiver group of Quincy Enunwa, Robby Anderson, and Jamison Crowder, especially in PPR. More touches and opportunities lead to more fantasy points. However, at this point, it remains to be seen if any of these receivers will get enough targets from Sam Darnold to be fantasy relevant. If Gase does a complete 180 and runs a faster offense this season, we can look to target fantasy players on or against the Jets, as a faster pace benefits both sides from a fantasy perspective.
What's the rotation in San Francisco?
Jimmy Garoppolo returns from injury to a mostly new group of pass-catchers. Elite tight end, George Kittle, set a season yardage record last year with 1377. He did so with second- and third-string quarterbacks for all but three weeks. The 49ers have a very young receiving corps with no obvious No. 1.
Kyle Shanahan intends to lighten past No.1 receiver Marquise Goodwin’s load this season, per Matt Barrows of The Athletic. Shanahan also called out Dante Pettis during the preseason, though that could have been more to motivate the second-year player than put his role in question. Still, behind those two are well-regarded rookies Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd. How often those players get on the field or what the rotation looks like is still a mystery and it's especially limiting since San Fransisco so often uses personnel groups that only feature two wide receivers on the field.
This also looks like a backfield by committee, which can frustrate fantasy owners. This team has too many unknown factors to point to anything actionable from the preseason. Outside of Kittle and Garoppolo, most fantasy managers should be taking a wait and see approach with the 49ers fantasy options.
A tight end in Tampa Bay?
The Tampa Bay offense was No. 1 in passing yards last season and they are projected to be at the bottom of the NFC South standings this year. Teams pass more when playing from behind and new head coach Bruce Arians has a reputation for being an aggressive play-caller. Identifying how the targets will be distributed can guide us in which receiving options, other than the obvious Mike Evans, to use in fantasy.
Chris Godwin has gotten some hype, but his snaps were unpredictable in 2018. However, this preseason, he was on the field for every one of Jameis Winston’s snaps. His role appears locked in as the 1B behind Evans, which is maybe the most notable takeaway from the Buccaneers.
There was some concern regarding Arians’s lack of tight end usage in the past. That could have been because of the talent he had at the position and he now has a very fantasy-friendly TE to work with and seems ready to take advantage.
Per Rich Hribar, O.J. Howard played 95% of the snaps with Jameis Winston this preseason after never reaching 80 percent in a game up to this point in his career. With no more Adam Humphries or DeSean Jackson, and no run game to write home about, the offense should run through Winston feeding targets to the trio of Evans, Godwin, and Howard. Though, how that pecking order plays out is still unknown.