As we continue to roll on through the offseason and prepare for the 2023 fantasy season, we are taking a top-down look at the production for each position.
We kicked things off by looking at the how and the why scoring completely fell off the map last season, followed that up with a look at the quarterback landscape and how it was impacted, looked at the change in receiver production, and examined how tight ends were used in 2022.
Next in line, we are taking a top-down look at the running back position.
Highlights:
- Just four running backs averaged 20 or more touches per game last season, the fewest in an NFL season over the past 30 years.
- Running backs have lost 14.3% of their leaguewide share of carries inside of the five-yard line since 2010.
- Running back targets per game have dropped from the season prior now in five straight seasons.
Leaguewide Running Back Usage Since 2010:
| YEAR | Tch/Gm | RuAtt/Gm | RuTD/Gm | Tgt/Gm | Rec/Gm | ReTD/Gm | Stnd./Gm | PPR/Gm | LG. TCH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 53.2 | 43.7 | 1.3 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 0.4 | 35.7 | 45.2 | 54.6% |
| 2021 | 53.6 | 43.5 | 1.4 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 0.4 | 36.5 | 46.6 | 54.8% |
| 2020 | 53.3 | 43.5 | 1.5 | 13.0 | 9.9 | 0.4 | 37.6 | 47.5 | 53.4% |
| 2019 | 54.3 | 43.8 | 1.4 | 13.8 | 10.6 | 0.4 | 37.1 | 47.7 | 56.3% |
| 2018 | 53.6 | 42.8 | 1.4 | 14.2 | 10.7 | 0.5 | 37.9 | 48.7 | 55.4% |
| 2017 | 56.7 | 45.9 | 1.2 | 14.5 | 10.8 | 0.4 | 36.4 | 47.2 | 58.9% |
| 2016 | 54.6 | 44.8 | 1.4 | 13.3 | 9.9 | 0.4 | 36.8 | 46.7 | 56.3% |
| 2015 | 55.8 | 45.2 | 1.1 | 14.2 | 10.5 | 0.4 | 36.1 | 46.6 | 57.1% |
| 2014 | 55.6 | 45.8 | 1.3 | 13.5 | 9.8 | 0.4 | 36.1 | 46.0 | 57.2% |
| 2013 | 56.7 | 46.6 | 1.3 | 13.7 | 10.1 | 0.3 | 36.4 | 46.5 | 58.1% |
| 2012 | 56.1 | 47.1 | 1.3 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 0.2 | 35.6 | 44.6 | 58.0% |
| 2011 | 56.5 | 47.2 | 1.3 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 0.3 | 36.5 | 45.9 | 59.2% |
| 2010 | 57.1 | 47.5 | 1.3 | 13.1 | 9.6 | 0.3 | 36.5 | 46.1 | 59.9% |
We are starting to settle into familiar territory with how the running back landscape operates in the current climate of the NFL.
Even with rushing efficiency on the rise last season, running backs could not escape the overall production limits that hampered offenses in 2022.
Running backs combined to score 27 fewer rushing touchdowns than they did the year prior. Following suit with the scoring trends we covered earlier in this series, it was the fewest number of rushing touchdowns scored by backs in a season since 2017.
Comparing the leaguewide usage rates of backs in 2022 to where we were back at the start of 2010, there is a universal shaving of opportunities across the position. Where backs were hovering just below 60% of league touches and right around 47 rushing attempts per game, they have been below 55% of the league’s touches for three straight seasons and below 45 rushing attempts per game in five consecutive seasons.
There were just four running backs that averaged 20 or more touches per game last season. While an arbitrary number, that was the fewest in an NFL season over the past 30 years.
Running backs still account for the most collective use among all fantasy skill positions, but since so much of their volume is filled with the least effective source of fantasy production (rushing attempts), we have seen the position shed points per game from the season prior in each of the past four seasons paired with that usage decline.
For fantasy football, a target for a running back has had 2.5 times more value than a rushing attempt in PPR formats over that sample while having 1.5 times more value than a rush in standard scoring settings.
Running backs are being used less frequently in all capacities of the offense — both rushing and receiving — and I believe that the league’s increasing use of quarterback mobility is the root of that decline.
Yesterday we highlighted how quarterbacks continue to increase their leaguewide share of the running game. There is still no end in sight for that usage given we are continuing to see the position evolve around athleticism and get more athletes funneled into the league who can use their legs to go along with passing acumen.
With quarterback rushing on the rise, running backs have seen their number of opportunities slowly get shaved in that area.
Running Back Share of League Attempts:
| Year | RB Att.% |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 80.1% |
| 2021 | 81.7% |
| 2020 | 80.8% |
| 2019 | 83.7% |
| 2018 | 82.6% |
| 2017 | 85.4% |
| 2016 | 86.0% |
| 2015 | 85.9% |
| 2014 | 85.6% |
| 2013 | 85.9% |
| 2012 | 86.6% |
| 2011 | 86.4% |
| 2010 | 87.4% |
Running backs are still accounting for 80% of the league’s rushing attempts, but we have a significant decrease compared to where we were in 2010.
With quarterback runs, offenses can equalize and create a numbers advantage against the defense. With that, it is no surprise that we have seen the success of quarterback runs warrant their spike in incorporation into NFL game plans.
RB vs QB Rushing Efficiency Over the Past 10 Seasons:
| Run Type | Yds/Att. | EPA/Rush | Success % | Run 10+ | 1D/TD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 4.2 | -0.09 | 37.1% | 10.3% | 21.6% |
| QB Design | 4.4 | 0.22 | 59.8% | 12.8% | 47.8% |
*Kneel Downs Excluded
We are removing all scrambles here for the quarterbacks since they are the ultimate success-rate play. EPA and success rates on scrambles are warped because by definition they only count positive plays. A scramble behind the line of scrimmage that results in a throwaway or sack does not get defined as a scramble at all.
But even removing those cheat code runs for quarterbacks; you can easily see why having the ability to use your quarterback on designed runs is advantageous to have in your arsenal as an offense.
Taking this a step further, where we have seen the largest impact is near the end zone.
Running Back Share of League Attempts in the Green Zone:
| Year | Inside 10 | Inside 5 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 78.1% | 74.66% |
| 2021 | 77.7% | 78.21% |
| 2020 | 78.9% | 79.30% |
| 2019 | 81.7% | 84.42% |
| 2018 | 81.0% | 82.26% |
| 2017 | 84.6% | 85.14% |
| 2016 | 86.7% | 86.83% |
| 2015 | 87.2% | 89.21% |
| 2014 | 87.7% | 89.65% |
| 2013 | 86.8% | 89.72% |
| 2012 | 83.6% | 83.56% |
| 2011 | 84.6% | 85.10% |
| 2010 | 88.6% | 88.97% |
Running backs are still accounting for nearly three-fourths of all carries inside of the five-yard line but look at where that rate was in 2010. From that point compared to last season, we have seen the position lose 14.3% of their share of carries knocking on the door of the end zone.
Things get even more interesting for backs when we focus on their usage in the passing game.
Running Back Receiving Usage Since 2010:
| YEAR | TGT% | REC% | REYD% | RETD% | RB FF REPT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19.2% | 22.1% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 17.4% |
| 2021 | 19.5% | 22.5% | 15.5% | 13.1% | 17.9% |
| 2020 | 19.2% | 21.6% | 14.5% | 11.7% | 16.8% |
| 2019 | 20.6% | 23.9% | 16.6% | 12.9% | 18.8% |
| 2018 | 21.1% | 24.0% | 16.9% | 13.9% | 19.2% |
| 2017 | 21.6% | 25.4% | 18.3% | 14.4% | 20.5% |
| 2016 | 18.9% | 22.0% | 15.6% | 12.1% | 17.5% |
| 2015 | 20.1% | 23.4% | 16.9% | 13.2% | 18.8% |
| 2014 | 19.6% | 22.5% | 15.8% | 12.4% | 17.8% |
| 2013 | 19.7% | 23.3% | 15.6% | 10.4% | 17.7% |
| 2012 | 18.1% | 21.3% | 14.5% | 8.1% | 16.1% |
| 2011 | 19.4% | 22.9% | 15.3% | 9.5% | 17.3% |
| 2010 | 19.7% | 23.5% | 16.2% | 9.6% | 17.9% |
When we opened this series up, we explored how NFL defenses were forcing offenses into condensed passing. Leaguewide depth of throws was at an all-time low while the league threw more passes at or behind-the-line scrimmage than ever before.
Surely, that meant that running backs benefited from this development, right?
Not so fast…
Running back targets per game have dropped from the season prior now in five straight seasons. The 12.3 targets per game to running backs in 2022 were the fewest per game in that sample since 2010.
After throwing the ball to running backs was at an all-time high over the 2017-2019 seasons, things have tapered off the past three seasons.
Target Distribution At or Behind the Line of Scrimmage:
| YEAR | RB | WR | TE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 47.0% | 35.6% | 17.1% |
| 2021 | 47.3% | 36.4% | 16.0% |
| 2020 | 48.3% | 37.1% | 14.3% |
| 2019 | 53.6% | 31.3% | 14.4% |
| 2018 | 52.2% | 33.9% | 13.3% |
| 2017 | 53.4% | 32.2% | 14.1% |
| 2016 | 49.0% | 36.8% | 14.0% |
| 2015 | 51.3% | 34.0% | 14.4% |
| 2014 | 51.4% | 34.7% | 13.5% |
| 2013 | 54.6% | 31.9% | 13.1% |
| 2012 | 54.1% | 31.3% | 14.3% |
| 2011 | 57.0% | 28.3% | 14.2% |
| 2010 | 53.6% | 30.0% | 16.3% |
With the league pressing offenses to throw the ball shorter, teams have begun using their skill players at the wide receiver and tight end positions even more on targets at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Running backs still make up the largest slice of targets at or behind the line of scrimmage, but they have had a below 50% share of those targets now in three consecutive seasons after falling below the halfway point just once in a season prior since 2010.
And if running backs are losing ground on passing opportunities on throws at the line of scrimmage, they surely are not making up for that decline on throws beyond the line of scrimmage.
Target Distribution Beyond the Line of Scrimmage:
| YEAR | RB | WR | TE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11.5% | 66.1% | 22.3% |
| 2021 | 12.0% | 65.6% | 22.2% |
| 2020 | 11.8% | 65.5% | 22.5% |
| 2019 | 12.2% | 65.2% | 22.3% |
| 2018 | 13.2% | 65.0% | 21.6% |
| 2017 | 13.9% | 63.7% | 22.4% |
| 2016 | 12.0% | 65.7% | 22.3% |
| 2015 | 12.9% | 64.1% | 22.8% |
| 2014 | 12.1% | 66.0% | 21.7% |
| 2013 | 12.2% | 65.7% | 22.0% |
| 2012 | 11.4% | 65.8% | 22.6% |
| 2011 | 11.7% | 65.0% | 23.0% |
| 2010 | 12.0% | 65.9% | 22.0% |
So, we have teams getting the ball to wideouts and tight ends more near the line of scrimmage than ever before, sapping running back production.
Receiving running backs have become a cheat code for fantasy now due to scarcity at the position.
We had just five backs sustain a 15% target share for the season in 2022. All but Alvin Kamara (who also had no usage near the end zone) were RB1 scorers for the season, and all but Kamara were top-12 in points per game at the position. That was in standard formats, let alone leagues that reward receptions.
That aspect alone is what is pumping helium in the average draft position for Jahmyr Gibbs.
It is also what gives backs such as Aaron Jones, Rachaad White, and even Antonio Gibson a higher-end range of outcomes that may not be fully priced in, even if they are longer plays. Kamara himself could end up a value, although we will surely see if his price is altered based on any suspension coming down over the course of the summer, which is playing some factor into his current cost.
On the flip side, the decline in receiving work at the position has opened the door for more run-first options to compete at the front end of the position due to three-down backs being such a scarce commodity.
Josh Jacobs had insane rushing output a year ago to float his fantasy lines despite running just 21 total pass routes on third down all season. Just 28.4% of Jacobs’ fantasy points in PPR leagues came via receiving work.
This was a year after Jonathan Taylor led the position in scoring despite just 23.6% of his output coming through the air, which was the lowest rate for the RB1 overall in a season since 2012.
Over the past three seasons, seven of the 18 backs to close the year as top-six scorers in PPR formats have had fewer than 30% of their points come from receiving.
While three-down backs still have positional scarcity and ceiling outcomes that are in limited supply, that scarcity has allowed a larger window for backs without those fully involved profiles to compete at the position. Paired with how much larger the field is for those backs with the latter profile, it is not hard to see why drafting WR-Heavy early on in drafts has gained so much momentum.
We also have to acknowledge that once again mobile quarterbacks and their increasing numbers at the position are also playing a role.
JJ Zachariason just did a massively in-depth podcast recently on this subject and found that the more mobile that a quarterback was, the larger impact that he had on the production of his backfield.
That podcast has a wealth more on the subject, but when looking at the top-12 quarterbacks in rushing points per game last season and their distribution of the ball to running backs does show similar concerns.
Running Back Target Rate by Rushing Quarterbacks:
| QB | RB Tgt% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 17.2% | 31 |
| Jalen Hurts | 12.2% | 45 |
| Lamar Jackson | 14.8% | 38 |
| Josh Allen | 20.4% | 23 |
| Daniel Jones | 21.7% | 14 |
| Kyler Murray | 19.1% | 27 |
| Marcus Mariota | 13.4% | 41 |
| Deshaun Watson | 20.6% | 21 |
| Sam Darnold | 13.4% | 42 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 18.3% | 28 |
| Joe Burrow | 22.5% | 12 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 13.9% | 39 |
47 quarterbacks threw the ball 100 or more times last season. Not one of the quarterbacks here was in the top 10 in rate of targeting their running backs. The only quarterbacks here that were even in the top 20 in target rate to their running backs were Joe Burrow and Daniel Jones. Six of the 12 quarterbacks here were 30th or lower. At least Patrick Mahomes threw a bunch of touchdowns to Jerick McKinnon if you are willing to bet on that repeating itself.
I do not want to say that you should outright avoid running backs that play with mobile quarterbacks, but you should be incorporating their potential hindrances to backs into their range of outcomes.
Being cost sensitive is also massive.
Miles Sanders ended up an extreme value last season even though he was still limited through the air and shared rushing opportunities with Jalen Hurts near the paint, but he was also heavily discounted a year ago.
I have been bullish on Nick Chubb early this offseason, but this is an area where it could provide some caution on not only Chubb but also Jonathan Taylor among expensive running backs who have true odds at being the RB1 overall.
Saquon Barkley was able to avoid being overly impacted a year ago, but what if his target share was influenced by the wide receiving room in New York more than it will be this season?
The Falcons no longer have Marcus Mariota, so it alleviates some of the concern here that you may have with Bijan Robinson. For whatever it is worth, Desmond Ridder targeted running backs 24.5% of the time in his smaller sample, which was the seventh-highest among all quarterbacks with 100 or more pass attempts. Kyle Pitts was unavailable for those games and the overall passing volume as a team was still low, but it is still an encouraging rate compared to Mariota’s.
The one wildcard here is what type of impact Trey Lance would have on Christian McCaffrey should Lance find his way into the lineup for a stretch of the season. McCaffrey has confidently been priced in as the RB1 this entire offseason. Brock Purdy targeted running backs 25.3% of the time (third in the league). Lance has not had a receiving back to the caliber of McCaffrey to this point of his career, but his target rate to backs during his small sample has been 18.4%.
Takeaways for the 2023 Season:
- The rate of running back touches compared to the league remains down compared to a decade ago.
- Mobile quarterbacks are taking away not only rushing volume but also receiving volume from the running back position.
- NFL teams are using wide receivers and tight ends more near the line of scrimmage over running backs in the passing game.
- Lack of leaguewide passing game involvement paired with that touch reduction has made all-purpose backs a valuable and scarce resource for fantasy but also has allowed the depth of the position to have more viability.
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