As we continue to roll on through the offseason and prepare for the 2023 fantasy season, we are taking a top-down look at the production for each position.
We kicked things off by looking at the how and the why that scoring last season completely fell off the map.
We then followed that up with a look at the quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers.
Closing things up, we are digging into the tight end position.
Highlights:
- Tight ends had their largest share of leaguewide targets (21.1%) and receptions (21.7%) over the past seven years.
- The 20.8% share of leaguewide receiving yardage was the highest rate for tight ends since 2013.
- While tight ends had a collective spike in usage and production, top-12 fantasy tight ends collectively posted their lowest share of targets, receptions, and yardage over the past 13 seasons.
- Travis Kelce has ruled the position, but the 2022 season was a historic outlier for the field after TE1. We should expect the field to put up more of a fight in 2022.
- The value of targets from the slot and out wide increases significantly. Target tight ends with a high rate of usage outside.
Leaguewide Tight End Usage Since 2010:
| Year | Tgt/Gm | Lg. TGT% | Rec/Gm | League% | Yd/Gm | League% | Td/Gm | League% | PPR/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13.4 | 21.09% | 9.3 | 21.69% | 97.5 | 20.81% | 0.7 | 26.40% | 23.4 |
| 2021 | 13.9 | 20.92% | 9.5 | 21.42% | 101.0 | 20.68% | 0.7 | 24.05% | 24.3 |
| 2020 | 14.2 | 21.05% | 9.6 | 20.96% | 103.5 | 20.31% | 0.9 | 26.75% | 25.5 |
| 2019 | 13.9 | 20.76% | 9.5 | 21.42% | 103.2 | 20.50% | 0.8 | 24.84% | 24.5 |
| 2018 | 13.4 | 19.93% | 9.1 | 20.29% | 103.5 | 20.35% | 0.7 | 22.55% | 24.0 |
| 2017 | 13.8 | 20.66% | 8.9 | 20.95% | 98.1 | 20.48% | 0.8 | 26.59% | 23.3 |
| 2016 | 14.4 | 20.45% | 9.5 | 21.19% | 105.1 | 20.55% | 0.7 | 23.54% | 24.4 |
| 2015 | 15.1 | 21.35% | 9.8 | 21.84% | 107.6 | 20.77% | 0.8 | 25.06% | 25.6 |
| 2014 | 13.9 | 20.20% | 9.1 | 20.73% | 100.2 | 19.90% | 0.8 | 26.77% | 24.1 |
| 2013 | 14.5 | 20.81% | 9.3 | 21.53% | 106.9 | 21.19% | 0.9 | 29.48% | 25.5 |
| 2012 | 15.0 | 21.90% | 9.6 | 22.71% | 104.6 | 21.26% | 0.8 | 26.68% | 24.8 |
| 2011 | 14.6 | 21.85% | 9.2 | 22.58% | 106.9 | 21.85% | 0.8 | 26.98% | 24.6 |
| 2010 | 14.3 | 21.55% | 9.0 | 22.03% | 99.8 | 21.13% | 0.8 | 25.83% | 23.5 |
If you have been following along with the series this week, then you are certainly not surprised to the tight end position follows suit with all of the other positions in succumbing to the leaguewide decline in offensive output.
Tight ends corralled their fewest receptions per game since 2018 and their fewest number of yards per game in this entire sample. As a byproduct, they scored their fewest amount of fantasy points per game since the 2017 season.
While the counting stats were victimized by the state of top-down offensive output last season, usage and rate production for tight ends remained intact.
Tight ends had their largest share of leaguewide targets (21.1%) and receptions (21.7%) over the past seven years. The 20.8% share of leaguewide receiving yardage was the highest rate for tight ends since 2013. The group even had a respectable slice of the receiving touchdowns, which rose from the 2021 season.
Taking all of that into account you may believe that tight ends ended up having fantasy relevance last season, but the position remained as top-heavy as ever with a chasm between Travis Kelce and the field.
More on that in a bit.
Collectively, tight ends did occupy a larger rate of production and usage than in the past several seasons, but that spike in usage and output was dispersed across the position versus creating front-end stars.
Fantasy TE1 Output Share Since 2010:
| YEAR | TGT% | REC% | REYD% | RETD% | PPR % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 30.29% | 30.43% | 32.19% | 32.32% | 32.71% |
| 2021 | 31.99% | 32.06% | 36.70% | 31.99% | 35.64% |
| 2020 | 32.21% | 32.47% | 34.30% | 34.33% | 33.53% |
| 2019 | 33.13% | 34.56% | 37.01% | 33.33% | 35.29% |
| 2018 | 35.75% | 36.03% | 37.55% | 36.13% | 36.69% |
| 2017 | 33.20% | 34.48% | 34.14% | 36.55% | 34.73% |
| 2016 | 33.51% | 34.48% | 35.60% | 34.59% | 34.84% |
| 2015 | 33.41% | 34.67% | 37.69% | 40.76% | 36.97% |
| 2014 | 34.42% | 35.62% | 38.43% | 41.20% | 37.77% |
| 2013 | 33.81% | 34.90% | 36.27% | 40.51% | 36.79% |
| 2012 | 33.17% | 34.84% | 35.28% | 39.60% | 36.04% |
| 2011 | 36.11% | 38.00% | 39.69% | 42.29% | 39.78% |
| 2010 | 31.74% | 33.71% | 35.13% | 39.18% | 35.42% |
While the tight end position as a whole had its highest share of leaguewide targets and receptions in a season since 2015 and its highest rate of yardage since 2013, top-12 fantasy tight ends collectively posted their lowest share of targets, receptions, and yardage within the position in the entire sample.
Their 32.3% share of touchdowns caught by the position last year was the second-lowest rate on the board, besting only the 2021 season.
All in all, top-12 tight ends ended up accounting for their smallest slice of tight end fantasy production over the past 13 seasons.
I do believe that the opening table showed a lot of promise here, however.
With tight ends being used more and the middle of the field being more open due to the defensive meta, there is opportunity here for the top of the position to have a strong season if that continues.
They just need a better collective run of health.
The position was once again beaten up in 2022, with George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz, and David Njoku all missing multiple games due to injury.
He Can't Keep Getting Away With It
The position as a whole was completely dominated again by Travis Kelce. Kelce has now outright led all tight ends in scoring in six of the past seven seasons. The one time that he did not (2021) he was second.
You could have run into some pockets of production from other tight ends while both T.J. Hockenson and George Kittle paid off for playoff teams last season, but Kelce had an all-time season in the context of positional leverage.
% of PPR points scored compared to the TE1 last year and the 10 seasons prior…
The top of the TE position has always been top-heavy, but last season was historic positional leverage for even Travis Kelce. pic.twitter.com/WEM16ylxNE
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) July 6, 2023
Hockenson was the TE2 in overall PPR scoring, but it was the fewest number of points scored by the TE2 in a season since 2016 and the second-fewest number of points scored by the TE2 overall over the past 12 seasons.
As a byproduct, last season’s TE2 only produced 68.1% of the fantasy points that Kelce did.
That was the lowest rate of production by the TE2 overall compared to the top scorer over the past 30 years.
On average, the TE2 overall has produced 85.7% of the TE1 points over that span.
Even in previous seasons when Kelce has led the position in scoring, the rest of the position has not been as bad as they were in 2022. In Kelce’s other seasons pacing the position, the TE2 in those seasons was able to match 93.7%, 97.4%, 95.2%, 87.5%, and 89.1% of his output.
While Kelce is the clear-cut TE1 and there is a gap until the TE2 comes off of draft boards, we should anticipate that the field is closer to Kelce this season than last year. It will be hard to replicate the positional leverage he provided in 2022.
That alone is inherently valuable when you are forced to select a tight end from the field. As just a blind bet on regression to the mean, you should have a higher chance of matching Kelce-led rosters this season. Paired with the usage rates for the position rising last year, we could even have multiple tight ends put up a fight this season.
Leaguewide Use of Tight Ends Since 2013:
| Year | 2+TE% | Inline% | Pass Block% | Run Block % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27.76% | 63.45% | 6.28% | 44.66% |
| 2021 | 28.82% | 63.40% | 7.02% | 43.86% |
| 2020 | 28.81% | 65.49% | 8.00% | 43.33% |
| 2019 | 28.20% | 65.97% | 8.10% | 42.77% |
| 2018 | 25.10% | 64.26% | 8.19% | 42.60% |
| 2017 | 29.43% | 67.15% | 8.81% | 44.88% |
| 2016 | 25.30% | 67.17% | 9.36% | 42.81% |
| 2015 | 30.98% | 65.77% | 8.75% | 43.22% |
| 2014 | 28.96% | 65.93% | 8.58% | 43.95% |
| 2013 | 28.59% | 66.91% | 10.22% | 43.42% |
Looking at how tight ends were utilized last season, snaps with multiple tight ends on the field were lower than the previous season. It was the first time since 2018 that the rate of snaps with multiple tight ends decreased from the previous season.
The good news is that when the position is on the field, they are being asked to play inline less, run more pass routes, and pass block less than ever before.
Tight ends did see a spike in run-blocking rate, which makes sense since we covered that NFL teams ran the ball at their highest rate since the 2011 season.
But the fact that tight ends are playing inline less and asked to block less on passing plays is a large part of why all of those usage and collective production rates climbed a year ago.
Tight End Usage Per Alignment:
| Alignment | Air/Tgt | 1D/TD% |
|---|---|---|
| Inline | 6.0 | 38.0% |
| Slot | 9.0 | 39.4% |
| Wide | 9.1 | 39.5% |
We only have individual alignment metrics from the past four seasons, but you can easily see how the value of targets spikes when tight ends are in the slot or spread out wide.
Even by just playing in the slot, their average depth of target for a tight end increases by an average of three whole yards downfield. In turn with deeper targets that inherently come with more yardage when successfully converted in receptions, the rate of first downs and touchdowns on those targets climbs.
Since we know all tight ends are not the same and tasked with different assignments in different offenses, I took the top-36 players in the current ADP at Underdog and laid out their usage rates in 2022 playing inline, in the slot, out wide, and the rate of snaps they were asked to block.
| wdt_ID | Player | ADP | Inline% | Slot% | Wide% | Block% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Travis Kelce | 1 | 37 | 37 | 23 | 30 |
| 2 | Mark Andrews | 2 | 9 | 63 | 24 | 42 |
| 3 | T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 53 | 32 | 13 | 39 |
| 4 | George Kittle | 4 | 63 | 26 | 8 | 45 |
| 5 | Kyle Pitts | 5 | 41 | 41 | 16 | 48 |
| 6 | Dallas Goedert | 6 | 50 | 36 | 12 | 45 |
| 7 | Darren Waller | 7 | 22 | 60 | 16 | 24 |
| 8 | Evan Engram | 8 | 38 | 38 | 22 | 36 |
| 9 | David Njoku | 9 | 55 | 32 | 10 | 47 |
| 10 | Pat Freiermuth | 10 | 72 | 24 | 2 | 38 |
| 11 | Chigoziem Okonkwo | 11 | 54 | 21 | 9 | 51 |
| 12 | Dalton Kincaid | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Greg Dulcich | 13 | 40 | 53 | 5 | 33 |
| 14 | Dalton Schultz | 14 | 51 | 35 | 10 | 46 |
| 15 | Tyler Higbee | 15 | 74 | 10 | 15 | 50 |
| 16 | Cole Kmet | 16 | 54 | 34 | 10 | 54 |
| 17 | Gerald Everett | 17 | 47 | 39 | 13 | 31 |
| 18 | Irv Smith | 18 | 63 | 18 | 17 | 33 |
| 19 | Taysom Hill | 19 | 26 | 34 | 32 | 23 |
| 20 | Sam LaPorta | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Juwan Johnson | 21 | 39 | 48 | 10 | 41 |
| 22 | Dawson Knox | 22 | 44 | 37 | 11 | 40 |
| 23 | Mike Gesicki | 23 | 27 | 50 | 21 | 21 |
| 24 | Tyler Conklin | 24 | 62 | 29 | 8 | 40 |
| 25 | Hayden Hurst | 25 | 56 | 25 | 16 | 24 |
| 26 | Trey McBride | 26 | 40 | 39 | 9 | 44 |
| 27 | Luke Musgrave | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | Isaiah Likely | 28 | 14 | 64 | 19 | 31 |
| 29 | Jake Ferguson | 29 | 74 | 19 | 4 | 74 |
| 30 | Michael Mayer | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | Jelani Woods | 31 | 50 | 34 | 13 | 34 |
| 32 | Noah Fant | 32 | 37 | 46 | 14 | 44 |
| 33 | Hunter Henry | 33 | 53 | 35 | 7 | 45 |
| 34 | Cade Otton | 34 | 41 | 47 | 8 | 39 |
| 35 | Logan Thomas | 35 | 21 | 63 | 13 | 44 |
| 36 | Zach Ertz | 36 | 22 | 63 | 11 | 30 |
*ADP from Underdog on 7/13
You can immediately see why a player such as Kelce stands out for fantasy.
Kelce is ninth in the lowest rate of snaps inline, third in the highest rate of snaps out wide (and really second since Taysom Hill has a major asterisk based on snap counts), and fifth in the lowest rate of snaps spent blocking.
Inversely, you can easily spot why someone as talented as George Kittle has had uneven production for fantasy since he is playing the position so heavily in a traditional sense of lining up inline and blocking a ton.
We also can highlight how some of the run-heaviest offenses in Chicago, Atlanta, and Tennessee ramped up the blocking rates for all of Cole Kmet, Kyle Pitts, and Chigoziem Okonkwo. We are expecting all of those teams to throw the ball more in 2023, but are we expecting any to really do a complete 180?
If you are not drafting tight ends that come with pricey draft capital, Evan Engram and Greg Dulcich have appealing profiles to target.
If you are forced to punt the position and swing on TE2 types, Juwan Johnson still stands out as the type of archetype to swing on while cheap.
He also blocks a bit more since the Saints were conservative in the first year post-Sean Payton, but Johnson has the inline and slot rates we look for creating a higher value of quality targets.
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