Each week we'll be using the tools available at Sharp Football Stats to find the best stacks for DFS rosters.
If you watched the beginning of the main slate last week, you were treated to some interesting names finding the end zone. There were backup tight ends and fullbacks, heck, even Brandon Bolden put up six for his team. It was a bit of a wacky week but we’re back at it again trying to utilize the tools here.
Game Stack
The Arizona Cardinals are traveling to Cincinnati to face of with the Bengals in a defense-optional game. This game features two of the top three teams when it comes to unadjusted passing splits.
The Cardinals continue to lap the field in running 10 Personnel. Through the first few weeks of the season, Arizona has run 64% of their plays out of that set. There are only three other teams in the entire league that are above 5% and the Patriots own the second-highest rate at 15%.
Those splits make Kyler Murray ($6,300) stackable in a few ways just simply by having so many receivers on the field at once. We haven’t seen a 25-plus-point DK performance from Murray since Week 1, largely because the touchdown upside hasn’t been there. If there’s a team that can provide some TD upside for your offense, it’s the Bengals. Larry Fitzgerald ($6,000) is in play this week, but I want to go a little on the unconventional side and go Murray with David Johnson ($7,500). He’s seen 20 targets over the past two weeks which is the eighth-highest total of anyone in the NFL, wide receivers and tight ends included.
Tyler Boyd ($6,500) will be at the top of everybody’s mind in Week 5 and it’s certainly justifiable as an option to turn a Cards stack into a game stack. Auden Tate ($3,500) was carving out a bit of a role for himself before the news of John Ross’s injury broke. Tate has seen 16 targets over the past two weeks but is significantly limited by the offense. He was on the field for all but six snaps in Monday’s loss to the Steelers.
Traditional Stack
If this situation had a soundtrack, it’d inevitably be a Sarah McLaughlin song. Will Fuller’s ($4,500) inability to break off a big play over the last few weeks has cost countless DFS players plenty of money, but he’s still seeing a whopping 40% of his targets at least 15 yards downfield.
Unfortunately, his success rate and passer rating on deep throws are the lowest we’ve seen since his rookie campaign. Houston is in the bottom half of the league in Explosive Pass rate, currently ranked 21st with just 11 explosive pass plays out of their 145 attempts. It’s a combination of Fuller and Deshaun Watson ($6,700) simply needing to be better.
Watson had two games this season when he’s gone completely off and scored over 30 DK Points. Unfortunately, the other two games have fallen below 13 points. When this connection clicks, it’s going to be in GPP winning lineups. A lot of people will be on both of these guys, though, so including Calvin Ridley ($4,900) or Austin Hooper ($4,500) on the way back with Atlanta is in play to differentiate.
Unconventional Stack
I know the Ravens are on the road in a divisional game. That isn’t a traditional spot to pick plays in DFS, but this Ravens offense isn’t traditional either.
They’re way down at the bottom with a 52-48 run split so far this season. Last week got away from them and they were still below average, passing just 57% of the time. There’s equity in their run game as long as the game goes according to plan. It’s no surprise that Mark Ingram ($6,300) saw his lowest snap rate of the season in a 15-point loss. Stacking him up with Lamar Jackson ($7,100) will certainly differentiate you from the field.
Doing just that, though, should capture all of the TD equity with this high-powered Ravens attack. The Bengals made this Steelers team look like the 1985 Bears, but comparing the Ravens and Bengals offenses is a bit like comparing a Tesla to a Ford Fiesta.
It is expensive, but the differentiation that you get from starting with these two in your QB-RB1 spots will be valuable in GPPs.