Each week, we use the free tools at Sharp Football Stats to identify DFS stacks.
We’re back at it again in Week 8 utilizing the free tools to break down this week’s slate. There are a half dozen teams on the slate that are implied for 28+ points. We’ll look to exploit a couple of those and hopefully find some contrarian options that will put us at the top of GPPs this weekend.
Game Stack
We should want exposure to the Arizona-New Orleans game this week. Over the first five weeks, Arizona and New Orleans were second and 30th in unadjusted pace. Since then, Arizona has slowed down a bit but is still within the top ten. The Saints are trending up, though and are above league average over the last couple of weeks.
It appears that the Cardinals will be without David Johnson, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have options. Kyler Murray ($6,200) is in play every single week. Before last week’s debacle, Murray had shown an impressive floor. If not for the emergence of Chase Edmonds ($6,200) last week, he could’ve had a better game. Should Johnson miss this week, Edmonds is firmly in play. As for Murray… anytime a running back scores three touchdowns, the quarterback’s production will likely be limited. He’s been a QB1 in four of his seven starts and is averaging over 20 DK Points per game.
Michael Thomas ($8,000) is the top option to run back this stack. He has twice as many targets as the next most targeted Saint since Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900) took over. Thomas has averaged 23.6 DK Points over the first seven games of the year. That’s only turned into two WR1 performances, but this game environment should provide some fireworks.
Traditional Stack
Carson Wentz ($5,600) is at the lowest salary that he’s been in about a month. Zach Ertz ($5,100) is at the lowest salary he’s been since New Year’s Day 2017. Ertz is the most targeted pass catcher in the Eagles’ offense. The team’s target share is reasonably concentrated which is what we like in DFS.
Some might be viewing this as a tough matchup on paper. But, only one opposing tight end has even seen more than four targets. As things stand right now, Ertz is first in targets, fifth in receptions, and fifth in receiving yards among TEs. He’s only managed one touchdown despite all that volume, though. Since the start of 2017, Ertz has averaged 0.5 touchdowns per game and has three multiple touchdown games. When the positive regression hits, you’re going to want exposure to Ertz.
RB-DEF Stack
Chris Carson’s ($7,000) role in the Seattle offense is exceptional. Even with the return of Rashaad Penny, he saw his full workload. Carson has seen at least 15 rushes in each game and has a streak of four games now with 20+ attempts. The question with Carson has been his ability to contribute in the passing game. With 27 targets so far, those questions have mostly been answered.
As large favorites, the Seahawks ($2,800) make sense as a correlation play. The Falcons look like a rudderless ship at the moment and Seattle should be able to take advantage. Over the last three weeks, they’ve been excellent against the pass. If the game plays out the way Vegas sees it happening, Atlanta will be forced into catch up mode.
The Seahawks are finding their groove and becoming more opportunistic, forcing five interceptions and three fumbles over the past four weeks.