As we do every week, we'll use the free tools at Sharp Football Stats to find the best stacks on the DFS slate.
We have a solid 11-game main slate on tap for Sunday as we recover from eating far too much on Thursday. A quick look at the slate doesn’t feel like there’s much as far as scoring goes, with just one game opening with an over/under of 50 or more. The good news is that there are seven different teams with implied totals of 25 or higher.
Traditional Stack
Kansas City is implied for the highest team total on the slate. At the time of this writing, they sit at 30.5 points, though the number has dropped to start the week. The Chiefs run 60% of their early down pass plays from 11 personnel and 30% from 12 personnel. Their success rate is 51% and 62%, respectively. Oakland is middle of the pack on defense on early downs against 11 and 12. Tyreek Hill ($8,900) fits in nicely to the weakness of the Oakland defense.
Only two teams in the league give up more yards per attempt to wide receivers on early downs than the Raiders. The Chiefs are seventh in the league in explosive pass rate, despite missing out on a couple games with Patrick Mahomes ($7,400) at the helm. Some people may be scared off of the Chiefs passing offense to a certain extent because he’s the most expensive quarterback, big spread, the uncertainty with Hill’s hamstring, among other things. That’s a mistake. Paying this much for a stack means you’ll need to find some value.
Cheap Stack
Andy Dalton ($4,700) makes his triumphant return this week. When he was the signal-caller at the beginning of the year, he looked for Tyler Boyd ($5,500) early and often. Boyd was averaging over 10 targets per game but was a bit unlucky in the touchdown department. He averaged over six catches and 66 yards but only managed one touchdown over the first eight games of the year.
They are 3.5 point underdogs at the time of this writing, so the game could be close even though the Bengals haven’t tallied a W this season. Under Dalton, Cincinnati passed at the highest rate in the entire league when sitting within one score. They sported a 68-32 pass-run split during that time frame.
RB-DEF Stack
There are still people on DraftKings who don’t play Christian McCaffrey ($10,500). He’s sitting at the same $10,500 price tag he’s been for the last few weeks. Over the past two games, McCaffrey is averaging 18 carries and 11.5 targets. The Panthers aren’t shy about using their running back, regardless of situation. Early downs? Give it to McCaffrey. Need a short play? Give it to McCaffrey. Need to convert a long second down? Give it to McCaffrey.
The Panthers run 65% of their plays from 11 Personnel. From a success rate standpoint, Washington is 31st in the league when defending against 11 personnel. McCaffrey has averaged over 32 DraftKings Points per game and has been an RB1 in 10-of-11 games.
Putting McCaffrey in the same lineup as the Panthers DST ($3,800) is a bit more expensive than the RB-DEF stack that we’d typically like to target. Carolina is tied for the biggest spread on the slate and we lock in a solid correlation play by matching them up. They get to take on Dwayne Haskins. He’s made three starts now. Haskins has managed two touchdowns and thrown two interceptions. He’s taking 13 sacks over that stretch.