Giants vs Buccaneers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Monday Night Football game.

• The Buccaneers have averaged a league-high 40.5 points per game at home this season as opposed to 23.4 per game on the road (14th).
• 77.3% of the Tampa Bay scoring plays have been touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
• 45.7% of the Giants scoring plays have been touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
• Daniel Jones is the only quarterback with double-digit red zone pass attempts to have single-digit touchdowns on those throws with three red zone touchdowns on 34 attempts (8.8%).
• Tom Brady has 18 red zone passing touchdowns on a league-high 69 red zone pass attempts (26.1%).
• Brady has thrown a touchdown pass for every 106.3 passing yards, the best rate in the league.
• Jones has thrown a touchdown for every 257.4 passing yards, 31st among qualifying quarterbacks.
• Brady is the only quarterback that has had over 50% of his fantasy points come directly from passing touchdowns (50.3%).

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Tom Brady: Brady was limited to 220 passing yards and 6.5 yards per pass attempt last week in a game in which the Buccaneers had their lowest time of possession (20:52) by over five minutes. Brady had two interceptions, but still did manage to throw a pair of touchdowns, his fifth game in a row with multiple passing scores.

Brady has a documented career facing the Giants and he has never thrown more than two scores against them in eight career games, including last season on Monday Night Football when he was 28-of-40 for 279 yards and two scores, which was still good for a 19.1 fantasy points and a QB9 scoring week.

Brady is still a QB1 fantasy option, but the Giants have played better defensively of late, allowing 5.4 yards per pass attempt over their past three games compared to 7.9 Y/A prior, facing Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes, and the anemic Sam Darnold. 

Daniel Jones: Jones hit the bye averaging a season-low 110 yards and 5.5 yards per pass attempt as the Giants coddled a lead and asked him to be a caretaker against the Raiders. It was the fourth straight game that Jones threw for fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt while he has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in all but two games this year. Jones has had just two QB1 scoring weeks but does have 16.0 or more fantasy points in six of his eight full games this season.

Jones threw just 20 times in Week 9, a number he will surely best here unless the Giants are able to play keep-away to the degree Washington was a week ago against the Bucs. Opposing teams still have the highest pass rate against Tampa Bay and they are facing 39.1 pass attempts per game, fourth in the league. Jones threw 41 times when these teams met a year ago, connecting on 25-of-41 attempts for 256 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions while adding 20 rushing yards. Jones is a solid QB2 option for volume and rushing ability.

Running Back

Saquon Barkley: Barkley is set to return to action on Monday night after suffering an ankle injury back in Week 5 after just six snaps. Prior to his injury, Barkley’s snap rate climbed in each of the opening four weeks while his share of backfield touches went from 64.7% to 75% to 88% to 90% in each game. We will see what Barkley’s workload is like coming off another absence, but there is likely going to be another ramp-up period after missing so much time.

The Giants have still had issues running the ball effectively with Barkley (he is averaging 3.6 YPC). Tampa Bay is not going to let you run on them, allowing 3.5 yards per carry to backs (second), so Barkley will have to find the end zone like Antonio Gibson was able to last week. Barkley also could do work through the air if he is the primary pass catcher and not limited. The Giants were finally utilizing him in the passing game, catching 6-of-7 targets for 43 yards in Week 3 and then 5-of-6 targets for 74 yards and a 54-yard touchdown where he was actually split out wide. Tampa Bay is allowing 14.7 receiving points per game to opposing backs (29th). Between the matchup and just returning from injury, Barkley is a volatile RB2 for Week 11.

Leonard Fournette (TRUST): Fournette came out of the bye securing an iron-clad grip on the Tampa Bay backfield, handling 90.5% of the backfield touches, turning 19 touches into 92 yards. Even with the Bucs in catch-up mode, it was Fournette running the routes and he caught 8-of-9 targets for 45 yards, the most targets and receptions he has had with Tampa Bay. Fournette has now been a top-15 scorer in five of his past six games.

The Giants have been beaten up by backfields, allowing 4.6 YPC to backs (26th) while allowing 14.3 rushing points per game (22nd) to go along with 13.1 receiving points per game (25th) to the position.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans: Evans had his second straight game with just two receptions, catching 2-of-3 targets for 62 yards, but just as was the case in Week 9, he made one of the catches count, finding the end zone on a 40-yard touchdown strike. That was the third straight game Evans has found the end zone as he only trails Cooper Kupp (10) in touchdown grabs (nine) on the season. 

We have seen Evans show some vulnerability to solid cornerback play, but he is always a significant touchdown threat. Evans and James Bradberry have a history that runs back to when Bradberry was in the division with the Panthers. In eight career games involving Bradberry, Evans has averaged 4.9 receptions for 63.5 yards per game with two touchdowns. He has cleared 70 yards in just two of those games, including catching 5-of-7 targets for 55 yards and a touchdown when these teams on Monday night last season. Evans is still a solid touchdown bet on any given week and a borderline WR1.

Chris Godwin (TRUST): Godwin grabbed 7-of-8 targets for 57 yards last week against Washington. In the past three games without Antonio Brown, Godwin has received 28.2%, 29.3%, and 24.2% of the team targets. 

In the games where Mike Evans does draw boundary corners and shadow coverage, Godwin has also had some serious spike weeks. In the three games Evans has drawn one-on-one attention, Godwin has had games of 9-105-1 (14 targets), 5-43-0 (five targets), and 8-140-1 (12 targets).

The Giants are a tougher matchup in total, allowing 7.4 yards per target (sixth), but are 21st in touchdown rate allowed (5.25) to the position. 

Giants WRs: New York wideouts have combined to catch 28 passes for 306 yards and one touchdown over the past three games as they have shuffled players in and out of the lineup. We are still expecting Sterling Shepard to miss this game, leaving Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, and Kadarius Toney as the primary core, which was what we saw in Week 9.

In that game, Golladay and Slayton were in on 80% of the team dropbacks while Toney was in on 76%. That came in a game in which the Giants had just 20 pass attempts, which should be close to being double here. 

While Golladay and Slayton are touchdown-dependent FLEX options, the real thing we are waiting to see is if Toney is going to be fully healthy coming out of the bye after dealing with multiple issues after his mid-season breakout. After catching 10-of-13 targets for 189 yards in Week 5, Toney caught just 8-of-9 targets for 71 yards over his past three games while seemingly on a pitch count. His usage going into the bye does not make him more than someone we are monitoring, with this game being an important part of his rest of season viability. 

The Buccaneers are facing 21.7 targets per game (fifth most) to opposing wide receivers, but are 12th in catch rate (63.1%), eighth in yards allowed per target (7.5 yards), and 13th in touchdown rate allowed (4.6%).

Tyler Johnson: Johnson has posted games of 2-16-0, 5-65-0, and 3-17-0 in the three games without Antonio Brown, running a route on 71.8%, 59.1%, and 64.7% of the team dropbacks. Johnson may also have to contend with the potential return of Scotty Miller, who has been closer to returning. We won’t know if Miller is active until Monday, but Johnson is only a single-DFS play to begin with.

Tight End

Evan Engram: Engram hit the bye week catching a touchdown in each of his past two games played, the first time since his rookie season that he caught a touchdown pass in back-to-back games. Engram only had 38 and 15 yards in those games, however, giving him 55 or fewer yards in every game this season. The good news is that he ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks in Week 9.

Engram was targeted 10 times (5-61-0) when these teams played a year ago and we have seen tight ends find usage against Tampa Bay. The Bucs are facing 8.7 targets per game (fourth-most) to tight ends and allowing 6.6 catches per game (third-most) to the position. Engram is a touchdown-dependent TE2 in non-PPR leagues, but a fringe TE1 play in leagues rewarding receptions.

Rob Gronkowski: Gronk was practicing in full on Thursday, which is a solid sign that he will be good to go this week with the game on Monday. Last time that Gronk returned in Week 8, he lasted just six snaps, so he comes with volatility as a boom-or-bust TE2. But he does still offer scoring upside as he led the team with four end zone targets while active to open the season after leading the team with 14 in 2020

Behind Gronk, Cameron Brate has consistently run more pass routes per game than O.J. Howard in every game Rob Gronkowski has missed and that stayed true out of the bye week as Brate ran 27 routes to just 16 for Howard and caught his first touchdown of the season.

The downside for Brate is that was his only catch and he has just caught just nine passes over those six games with Gronk sidelined or forced from the game early. Howard looked as if he was going to start becoming involved after catching 6-of-7 targets for 49 yards and a score in Week 5, but since has caught 3-of-6 targets for 25 yards.

More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

NE at ATL| GB at MIN | BAL at CHI | WFT at CAR | IND at BUF | DET at CLE | SF at JAX | HOU at TEN | MIA at NYJ | NO at PHI | CIN at LVR | ARI at SEA | DAL at KC | PIT at LAC | NYG at TB