As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Daniel Jones, Darren Waller, Jalin Hyatt, Wan'Dale Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and every other notable Giant, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Daniel Jones improved in his first year with coach Brian Daboll. He was the QB8 in per-game scoring among qualified quarterbacks after finishing as the QB15, QB29, and QB15 in his first three seasons. He was the QB6 in per-game scoring after Week 10.
- Darren Waller was behind just Kyle Pitts in air yards per target (13.4) last season. His career average was 8.1 air yards per target heading into 2022. Jones ranked 29th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in the percentage of his passes that traveled at least 10 yards down the field (27.3%) last season. That suggests Waller will revert back to near his career averages, but the possibility of downfield usage for a team that needs it creates interesting upside.
- One of the few workhorses in the league, Saquon Barkley handled 81% of the running back carries in the 16 weeks he was active and saw 20.2% of New York’s targets. He was not as efficient as he was early in his career (4.7 yards per touch), but he was 13th in rushing yards over expected per attempt according to Next Gen Stats, suggesting he was getting as much as possible behind a bad offensive line.
2022 Giants Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 365 (15th)
- Total Offense: 5,676 (18th)
- Plays: 1,089 (13th)
- Offensive TDs: 38 (15th)
- Points Per Drive: 1.95 (16th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 3.4 (9th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 31.46 seconds (20th)
2023 Giants Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Brian Daboll
- Offensive Coordinator: Mike Kafka
Several Giants coaches including Mike Kafka took a spin on the coaching carousel, but he and the rest of the staff will be back for a second season.
Dead last in EPA per play in 2021, the Giants became a respectable offense in Brian Daboll’s first season in charge, unsurprising given what he showed in Buffalo.
The offense did not look the same as those Bills units, however.
Buffalo was second in neutral pass rate from 2020-2021. The Giants were 15th last year with a pass rate 5.6% under expected.
Josh Allen’s average air yards per attempt was 8.96 during his four seasons with Daboll. Daniel Jones’ was 6.42 last year, the lowest mark of his career.
Personnel almost certainly played a large role in those tendencies.
New York’s best offensive player is a running back, and outside of Darius Slayton, their top options are receivers who like to operate near the line of scrimmage.
Unless third-round deep threat Jalin Hyatt earns a big role early or the Giants use Darren Waller as a downfield weapon like the Raiders did last season, both of those personnel limitations remain true this season.
2022 Giants Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 627 (18th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 51.6% (15th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -5.6% (24th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 25.6% (29th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 52% (29th)
2023 Giants Passing Game Preview:
The Giants will face the toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor
- WR: Isaiah Hodgins, Sterling Shepard
- WR: Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt
- WR: Parris Campbell, Wan’Dale Robinson
- TE: Darren Waller, Daniel Bellinger
Daniel Jones improved in his first year with coach Brian Daboll.
He finished 11th in EPA per play and sixth in completion rate over expected after being 40th and 35th in those metrics over his first three seasons.
He was the QB8 in per-game scoring among qualified quarterbacks after finishing as the QB15, QB29, and QB15 in his first three seasons.
He also got better as the year went on. Six of his best seven graded games by PFF came after Week 10. He was the QB6 in per-game scoring over that run.
Neither the offense nor Jones was elite, but it was a step in the right direction that earned the quarterback a new contract.
The job ahead of Daboll and Jones is to take the next step.
For fantasy, that next step is Jones retaining his rushing value while improving as a passer.
He scored 10.89 fantasy points per game as a passer last season, finishing 25th among qualifying quarterbacks. 60.3% of his fantasy points came from passing, 30th of 33 quarterbacks.
He finished around Lamar Jackson in those metrics, so he can remain a fantasy starter without improving his passing numbers assuming those rushing totals stick around.
Will they? It is a bit concerning nearly half of his carries last season were scrambles, but he was still fifth among quarterbacks in designed runs.
He finished in those rankings one spot behind Josh Allen, who had a similar percentage of his runs come from scrambles during his time with Daboll, so this might just be something we see from Jones moving forward.
If that is true and Jones retains his rushing floor, he will at worst be a solid QB2 who provides spike weeks, and he has the upside for more if this coaching staff can get more from him as a passer.
The relative lack of talent among the pass catchers makes it tougher to see that next step, but Jones finishing as a weekly QB1 with improved passing and similar rushing numbers is in the realm of possibilities.
As for those pass catchers, the group still looks shaky even with the additions of Jalin Hyatt and Darren Waller.
Given what receiver looks like, Waller should end up being the focal point of this passing attack if he can stay on the field – he has played 20 total games over the last two seasons.
It will be interesting to see how he is used.
Waller was behind just Kyle Pitts in air yards per target (13.4) last season. His career average was 8.1 air yards per target heading into 2022.
He was able to maintain his efficiency on that usage (65.1% catch rate, 1.58 yards per route run), and New York’s receiving corps is full of players who like to operate close to the line of scrimmage.
Jones ranked 29th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in the percentage of his passes that traveled at least 10 yards down the field (27.3%) last season, however, and his career average is right at that number.
That suggests Waller will revert back to near his career averages, but the possibility of downfield usage for a team that needs it creates interesting upside at a position that lacks it, especially given Waller’s likely volume.
*Preseason Update: It looks like Darius Slayton and Parris Campbell are locked in as starters after both sat out the first preseason game. Isaiah Hodgins and Jalin Hyatt worked as the starters with Slayton and Campbell out, and both saw time with the starters in the second preseason game.
Hodgins remains my favorite fantasy option of this group because of his unique skill set compared to the rest of the receiver room, but Slayton also looks like a screaming value as seemingly a locked-in starter. As for Campbell, he looks like a starter, but he has struggled to stay healthy and be efficient throughout his career. He will also face competition from Wan'Dale Robinson once Robinson is healthy.
Not a single Giants receiver is being drafted among the top 70 at the position, and it is difficult to argue with that valuation.
Third-rounder Hyatt is currently being drafted third among the group.
Following a nondescript start to his career, Hyatt exploded for a 67-1,267-15 receiving line for Tennessee last season, earning the Biletnikoff in the process. Those numbers represent 71.6% of his career yardage and 78.9% of his career touchdowns.
Hyatt consistently won down the field last season, averaging 18.9 yards per catch, but he was assisted by a Tennessee scheme that got him free releases from the slot, where he ran 86.1% of his routes.
He is slight (176 pounds) and likely has some work to do if the Giants plan to use him anywhere but the slot, where they already have a lot of options.
There is also a question of volume if Hyatt’s primary role is down the field in an offense quarterbacked by Jones.
Jones had 28 passes travel 20 yards or more in the air last season, the 33rd most in the league.
It seems worth noting there are only 32 teams in the NFL.
So Hyatt will either need to play outside, which he did not do in college, or compete with a slew of slot receivers for snaps in three-wide sets and have Jones throw more downfield to return rookie value.
It could happen, but it does not seem like a likely outcome. That said, he also does not cost anything in fantasy drafts.
Currently fourth in Giants receiver ADP, Wan'Dale Robinson tore his ACL in November and appears likely to begin the season on the PUP list.
Robinson looked like a playmaker as a rookie – his 5.48 yards after the catch per reception would have ranked 11th among qualifying receivers – and had 26 targets while playing around 70 percent of the snaps over the four-game span in which he was fully healthy.
He was still just the WR62 over that span in per-game scoring, and his fantasy upside as a player who averaged 6.2 air yards per target last season would be questionable even if he was fully healthy.
Sterling Shepard is also coming back from a serious injury, his second in as many seasons. Now 30, he will need to prove his health before being considered for fantasy purposes.
With all of New York’s issues at receiver last season, Isaiah Hodgins stepped up in a big way down the stretch.
From Week 10 through the Giants’ playoff loss, Hodgins caught 42 passes for 459 yards and five touchdowns over 10 games. Including the playoffs, he was the WR41 in per-game fantasy scoring last season.
A sixth-round pick who was cut by the Bills during last season and has just 11 regular season appearances in his career, it is fair to question if Hodgins can retain his role in the offense, but he offers size and perimeter ability the Giants simply do not have throughout the rest of the depth chart.
He may never be more than a touchdown-prayer WR3, but it would not be a surprise if he finishes the season as New York’s top scoring receiver. He is rightfully the most expensive in this group.
Darius Slayton also finished last season well and, like Hodgins, can play outside. He has similar concerns to Hyatt in that he is probably suited best for a downfield role, but he at least has a history of production including a 46-724-2 line last season.
Parris Campbell joined the team over the offseason and is currently the second-highest-priced Giants receiver by ADP.
Perhaps that makes sense given Campbell is the frontrunner for the slot job to open the season, and his play style seemingly fits well with Jones.
His 1.11 career yards per route run would have ranked 73rd among 85 qualifying receivers last season, however, and he faces a ton of competition for that slot role, especially once Robinson returns from injury.
Taking an upside chance on Hodgins or Hyatt over the floor hope of Campbell makes more sense if investing in this group.
Jamison Crowder, Jeff Smith, and Collin Johnson also deserve a mention in this crowded but talent-poor receiver room.
2022 Giants Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 461 (13th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 3.2 (6th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.24 (24th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 70% (26th)
2023 Giants Running Game Preview:
The Giants will face the fourth-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida, Eric Gray
- OL: Andrew Thomas, Ben Bredeson, John Michael Schmitz, Mark Glowinski, Evan Neal
Unlike the mess of a receiver situation, there is not a lot to say about this backfield.
Healthy for a full season for the first time since his rookie year – he sat out Week 18 for rest – Saquon Barkley finished with a 295-1,312-10 line on the ground, a 57-338-0 line through the air, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game at the position.
Barkley was not as efficient as he was early in his career (4.7 yards per touch), but he was 13th in rushing yards over expected per attempt according to Next Gen Stats, suggesting he was getting as much as possible behind a bad offensive line.
One of the few workhorses in the league, Barkley handled 81% of the running back carries in the 16 weeks he was active and saw 20.2% of New York’s targets.
Especially if the offensive line takes a step forward, Barkley should return value at cost as long as he stays healthy and his contract issue is resolved.
That latter suddenly looks more concerning after the two sides failed to reach a deal by the franchise tag deadline.
Talking about a potential holdout in late July, Barkley said, “That's not something I want to do,” before adding, “but now I'm at a point where it's like, ‘Jesus, I might have to take it to this level.' Am I prepared to take it to the level? I don't know. That’s something I got to sit down and talk to my family, I got to sit down and talk to my team.”
The Giants cannot give Barkley a new contract even if they wanted to with the deadline passed, which means Barkley either has to play on the tag or not play at all.
Barkley will likely miss some camp time to express his displeasure, but the probable outcome remains him being on the field for Week 1.
Matt Breida, fifth-round rookie Eric Gray, and even Gary Brightwell will be waiver names to know if something happens to Barkley, but that is the extent of their fantasy value.
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