The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Buccaneers and Jaguars.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Spread | -1.0 | ||
| 21.0 | Implied Total | 22.0 | ||
| 22.8 | 10 | Points/Gm | 21.1 | 20 |
| 22.4 | 21 | Points All./Gm | 20.7 | 13 |
| 66.1 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 22 |
| 64.1 | 20 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.3 | 22 |
| 5.2 | 17 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 19 |
| 5.6 | 28 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 25 |
| 41.30% | 21 | Rush% | 41.74% | 19 |
| 58.70% | 12 | Pass% | 58.26% | 14 |
| 38.35% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 38.33% | 5 |
| 61.65% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 61.67% | 28 |
- The Jaguars have played a league-high 10 games against teams that currently have a winning record, going 4-6 in those games.
- Tampa Bay is 0-6 against teams that currently have a winning record.
- The Buccaneers have covered a league-high eight games as an underdog this season.
- Tampa Bay has five outright wins as an underdog, tied for the most in the league.
- The Jaguars are 8-0 in games that they have led at halftime and 0-5 in games that they have trailed at halftime, one of two teams with a clean split when leading or trailing at the half.
- The Buccaneers are 6-1 when they have led at halftime but are 0-5 when trailing at the half.
- Jacksonville games are averaging a league-high 500.6 combined passing yards per game.
- Tampa Bay games are averaging 488.1 combined passing yards per game, seventh.
- Tampa Bay is allowing the most passing plays of 20 or more yards per game (4.2).
- 31.5% of the Jacksonville runs have gained five or more yards, 29th in the league.
- 30.2% of the Tampa Bay runs have gained five or more yards, 31st in the league.
- The Jaguars have turned the ball over on 17.7% of their possessions over their past seven games, 31st in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence is in the league’s concussion protocol and his status is up in the air this week.
Lawrence has never missed a start, and we have had a pair of instances this season where we thought he was not going to play only for him to end up being active.
We have flirted with that first start for C.J. Beathard, but we have not gotten it yet.
I am going to open the week discussing Lawrence being active because it carries more significance.
Circle back here if he ends up staying in protocol and we do get Beathard under center.
Should Lawrence clear protocol, he will have a fantastic matchup to get back to QB1 status after tough weeks against the Browns and Ravens.
We have been targeting passers against the Bucs for several weeks.
Tampa Bay is allowing 16.9 passing points per game over their past 10 games, 30th in the league.
Over that span, they have allowed a 66.7% completion rate (27th), 8.1 yards per pass attempt (31st), and a 4.1% touchdown rate (17th).
The one concern here is that Lawrence is the league’s lowest-rated passer against the blitz (65.7).
Tampa Bay is third in the NFL in blitz rate (38.9%).
Lawrence has completed 52.4% of his passes when blitzed this season, ahead of only Bryce Young (51.0%) and Kenny Pickett (50.6%).
When he has not been blitzed, he has completed 69.5% of his passes, fourth in the league.
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet and all of Rich's regular content, including positional rankings and chats, click below to purchase our NFL Plus package.
Purchase
