The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 6 Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon game.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spread | -2 | ||
| 20 | Implied Total | 22 | ||
| 22.2 | 15 | Points/Gm | 13.8 | 32 |
| 16 | 4 | Points All./Gm | 18.8 | 10 |
| 64.6 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 68.6 | 7 |
| 61.8 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 21 |
| 5.5 | 17 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 29 |
| 5.1 | 8 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 7 |
| 42.11% | 13 | Rush% | 37.03% | 23 |
| 57.89% | 20 | Pass% | 62.97% | 10 |
| 43.37% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 45.28% | 24 |
| 56.63% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 54.72% | 9 |
- The Colts have been outscored 71-26 in the first half this season, the second-largest first half differential in the league behind Arizona (-54 points).
- The Colts are allowing 6.4 sacks plus turnovers per game, 31st in the league.
- 30.1% of the Jacksonville rushing attempts have failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- 23.8% of the Indianapolis rushing attempts have failed to gain yardage, the second-highest rate in the league.
- The Jaguars are allowing a league-low 3.1 yards per carry on first down rushing attempts.
- 32.6% of Trevor Lawrence's pass attempts have come on first down, 31st in the league.
- Lawrence is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt on first down (11th) as opposed to 5.9 Y/A on other downs (33rd).
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: After it appeared that Lawrence was turning the corner early in the season, he reverted back to QB31 (5.7 points) and QB22 (10.3 points) the past two weeks.
I was willing to overlook a tough game versus the Eagles in the rain, but this past week Lawrence was a huge letdown. He averaged a season-low 6.1 yards per pass attempt while ranking 27th in success rate (40.7%) and dead last in completion rate below expectation (-10.5%) among passers in Week 5.
Doug Pederson commented on their inability to handle Cover-2 after the game, which Lawrence saw on a league-high 68.1% of passing plays in Week 2 (the next closest quarterback was at 45.2%). On 32 dropbacks versus Cover-2, Lawrence was 17-of-32 (53.1%) for 192 yards (6.0 Y/A).
This is our first rematch of the early NFL season. When these teams met in Week 3, Lawrence was the QB12 (18.5 points) for fantasy, completing 25-of-30 passes for 235 yards with two touchdowns. In that game, the Colts played Cover-2 on just two dropbacks, playing Cover-3 on 38.5% and Cover-1 on 25.6%. Indianapolis has played Cover-2 on just 6.9% of passing plays this season (23rd), so it would be a significant adjustment if we see them flip over to that this weekend. Playing under Gus Bradley, they have used Cover-3 on 50.6% of passing plays (second in the NFL).
Lawrence is averaging 8.5 Y/A versus Cover-3 (12th), but also has one touchdown pass to three interceptions.
The Colts overall are 21st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.43), 20th in touchdown rate (4.3%), 15th in yards allowed per attempt (7.1 Y/A), and 19th in completion rate (65.4%) allowed to opposing passers, so there is nothing overwhelming about outright avoiding this matchup.
Lawrence takes a significant step of faith after the past two weeks. That prevents him from contending with being a 1QB option, but there a decent peripherals here that he can bounce back as a 2QB option.