As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Travis Etienne, and every other notable Jaguar, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- After the bye in Week 11, Trevor Lawrence completed 67.8% of his passes, averaged 7.5 yards per attempt, and threw 12 touchdowns (5.1%) to just two interceptions (0.8%).
- Back in 2020, Calvin Ridley finished seventh among qualifying receivers in yards per route run (2.44) and 10th in target rate per route (25.4%) while playing with Julio Jones. He was 14th in yards per target (9.6).
- Even after James Robinson was traded, Travis Etienne saw 6.5% of the team’s targets, which was actually behind fellow running back JaMycal Hasty.
2022 Jaguars Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 404 (10th)
- Total Offense: 6,075 (9th)
- Plays: 1,072 (16th)
- Offensive TDs: 41 (11th)
- Points Per Drive: 2.08 (11th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 4.5 (8th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 30.06 seconds (9th)
2023 Jaguars Coaching Staff:
Head Coach: Doug Pederson
Offensive Coordinator: Press Taylor
As it turns out, Urban Meyer was awful.
There were some big pass catching additions over the offseason, but Doug Pederson turned the Jaguars from one of the worst offenses in the league under Meyer into an arguably top-10 unit.
Under Meyer, Trevor Lawrence had the third-worst completion rate over expected at -5.4%. That number improved to -0.5% in 2022.
Under Meyer, the Jaguars were 2% under their expected pass rate. Last season, they were up to neutral.
Fantasy players would like to see more volume – the Jaguars were ninth in situation-neutral pace last season, so it might be there moving forward – but the arrow is pointing way up for this offense.
2022 Jaguars Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 646 (13th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 52.7% (12th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: 0% (9th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 17.6% (7th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 49% (31st)
2023 Jaguars Passing Game Preview:
The Jaguars will face the 16th-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Beathard
- WR: Calvin Ridley, Tim Jones
- WR: Zay Jones, Jamal Agnew
- WR: Christian Kirk, Parker Washington
- TE: Evan Engram, Brenton Strange
Trevor Lawrence’s improvement from 2021 to 2022 was astounding.
| Year | EPA/Play | Completion% | YPA | TD% | INT% | Sack% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | -0.09 | 59.6% | 6.0 | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.8% |
| 2022 | 0.12 | 66.3% | 7.0 | 4.3% | 1.4% | 4.3% |
Lawrence was even better down the stretch last year.
After the bye in Week 11, Lawrence completed 67.8% of his passes, averaged 7.5 yards per attempt, and threw 12 touchdowns (5.1%) to just two interceptions (0.8%).
He was the QB9 in per-game scoring over that span, averaging 19.2 fantasy points per game.
That finish suggests Lawrence still has room to improve in this offense, and he gets another weapon with the return of Calvin Ridley, who has reportedly looked good in training camp.
Lawrence did jump up to five rushing touchdowns last season, but that came on just seven carries in goal-to-go situations.
Even with those, he was the QB12 in rushing fantasy points per game among quarterbacks who made multiple starts last season.
He was right around Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes in those rankings, but he was well behind those two in passing points per game.
Perhaps he will jump up to that level, but the lack of rushing means he will need to have an elite passing season to ascend into the top five quarterbacks.
That said, he looks like a solid QB1 with a reasonable draft cost.
As for his new receiver, Calvin Ridley has played five games in the last two seasons, and he struggled through those five in 2021.
That layoff is a concern for a 28-year-old receiver (29 in December), but Ridley was one of the best receivers in the league back in 2020.
He finished seventh among qualifying receivers in yards per route run (2.44) and 10th in target rate per route (25.4%) while playing with Julio Jones. Ridley was 14th in yards per target (9.6).
Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are coming off career seasons, but those efforts were not really close to the ceiling Ridley has shown.
If he is the old Ridley, he should be the No. 1 option in this passing game.
The Jaguars spread the ball around enough last season to create some worry about Ridley’s target total even if he is the clear No. 1, but he carries a lot of upside in this ascending passing game.
Ridley’s addition raises some concern for Christian Kirk, who led the team with a 23.2% target share last season on his way to an 84/1,108/8 line.
He was not extremely target-dependent last season, but he was 25th in half-PPR receiving points per target despite scoring eight touchdowns (8th).
That touchdown total was not fluky – he was targeted 10 times in goal-to-go situations, tied for second among qualified receivers – but small hits to his usage both near the goal line and just in general will be an issue for his fantasy value.
Concerns about those usage hits appeared founded when Kirk played fewer snaps and ran fewer routes than both Ridley and Jones in the preseason opener.
The good news is Kirk is priced as the WR28 at Underdog, 11 spots behind his per-game finish last season, and there is always the chance Ridley either disappoints or suffers an injury.
As for Zay Jones, preseason usage suggests his role is relatively secure after he ran 570 routes (22nd) a season ago, finishing with 823 yards and 5 touchdowns on 82 catches.
Jones was relatively inefficient (48th in yards per route run, 69th in yards per target) and is unlikely to finish with a target share over 20% again unless Ridley gets hurt or Kirk is truly a part-time player.
He is cheap as the WR57 at Underdog, but Jones likely needs something to happen in front of him to return more than spike weeks for fantasy.
Evan Engram had his best season since 2017 last year, posting a 73/766/4 line and earning a three-year, $41.25 million contract.
That line was good enough to make Engram the TE7 in per-game scoring, but there are some caveats.
Like the rest of the receiving group, there is suddenly more competition for targets with Ridley active.
Engram finished fifth in raw targets last season among qualifying tight ends but 12th in fantasy points per target. Like Kirk, that is not a massive red flag, but it is a concern if his targets take even a small hit.
Second, Engram had some massive fantasy weeks but also was the TE16 or worse in nine out of 17 games.
That inconsistency is expected from TE2s and players at the back of the TE1 tier, where Engram is being drafted, but it does not make a lot of sense to reach for Engram when a player like Pat Freiermuth is available at least a round later.
2022 Jaguars Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 424 (16th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 3.3 (4th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.06 (29th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 70% (26th)
2023 Jaguars Running Game Preview:
The Jaguars will face the seventh-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, JaMycal Hasty, D’Ernest Johnson
- OL: Cam Robinson (suspended four games), Ben Bartch, Luke Fortner, Brandon Scherff, Anton Harrison
Travis Etienne found himself in a timeshare early last season, but that changed once James Robinson was traded.
From Week 8 on, Etienne handled 58.9% of the total carries and 74% of the running back carries. He was the ball carrier on 13 of the Jaguars’ 20 goal-to-go rushes over that span.
Etienne was 14th among all running backs in yards per carry from Week 8 on (4.7) and 16th in yards per touch (5.1).
The real concern was the passing game.
Even after Robinson was traded, Etienne saw 6.5% of the team’s targets, which was actually behind fellow running back JaMycal Hasty.
He ran 34 routes on third down from Week 8 on, which ranked 31st among running backs and was two fewer than Hasty.
Etienne finished 24th among all running backs in receiving fantasy points last season.
That lack of receiving usage and Etienne dramatically underperforming compared to his expected touchdown total led to an RB19 finish in per-game scoring from Week 8 on despite his usage.
That receiving usage remains a concern, and the Jaguars added Tank Bigsby in the third round as a potential threat to Etienne’s usage around the end zone.
Etienne is talented, has some touchdown regression upside given his usage last year, and was viewed as at worst a decent pass catcher coming out of college.
However, he did not get used in the passing game last year and could lose some goal-line work to the rookie.
He is a risky pick as the RB14, and it is tough to see true RB1 upside unless his passing-game usage improves.
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