The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Jaguars and Saints on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 18.0 | Implied Total | 21.0 | ||
| 23.7 | 10 | Points/Gm | 18.2 | 24 |
| 20.3 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 16.0 | 6 |
| 69.3 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 69.7 | 4 |
| 62.0 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.3 | 8 |
| 4.9 | 20 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.6 | 26 |
| 5.5 | 23 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.6 | 4 |
| 44.15% | 11 | Rush% | 41.28% | 17 |
| 55.85% | 22 | Pass% | 58.72% | 16 |
| 33.87% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 40.93% | 10 |
| 66.13% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 59.07% | 23 |
- The Saints are the last remaining team that has had every game go under the total so far this season.
- New Orleans game totals have been set at an average of 40.7 points, which is 31st in the league.
- Opposing teams have gone three and out on 47.2% of their drives against New Orleans, the second-highest rate in the league.
- Teams have gone three and out on 39.1% of their drives against Jacksonville, seventh in the league.
- Jacksonville has allowed opponents to score on 27.5% of their possessions, fifth in the league.
- New Orleans has allowed opponents to score on 29.2% of their possessions, sixth in the league.
- The Jaguars have a takeaway on 20.3% of opponent possessions, second in the NFL.
- Just 11.2% of New Orleans' first down plays have resulted in a new first down or touchdown, the lowest rate in the NFL.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Derek Carr: Carr is coming off season-highs in completions (32), pass attempts (50), and passing yards (353) Sunday against Houston.
He threw just one touchdown pass, his fifth game this season with one or fewer tosses into the end zone.
Carr is currently 2.2 passing touchdowns below expectations this season, which is 35th in the league.
A big part of his struggles is his continued lack of success in the red zone, something that plagued him in 2022.
Carr has completed 44.0% (11-of-25) of his red zone passes, 29th in the league.
He has completed 30.0% (3-of-10) inside of the 10-yard line, ahead of only Kenny Pickett (28.6%) and Daniel Jones (20.0%) early this season.
In 2022, Carr completed a league-low 34.5% of his passes inside of the 10-yard line.
We know what we have in Carr as a fantasy QB2. Even in a week with heavy byes, he is not an objectively strong streamer in 1QB formats.
If you do have to roll out Carr in 2QB leagues and are outright looking for an upside angle, four of the six passers to face Jacksonville have thrown for at least 280 yards with three 300-yard games.
The Jaguars are 20th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.2 Y/A) and 24th in passing points allowed per game (14.6) on the strength of facing the third-most pass attempts per game (39.3).
Jacksonville QB: Trevor Lawrence tweaked his knee to close out Week 6.
While it is not believed to be a serious long-term injury, his status for Thursday in a short week is up in the air. The current line certainly suggests he will not play.
Even if he can suit up, Lawrence has not reached 20 fantasy points in any game this season at full strength.
Paired with the potential that he is not 100% active, Lawrence would be a volatile fantasy option for more of a floor than a true ceiling outcome. In 1QB formats, I would be inclined to stream for him.
If Lawrence is held out with 10 days off until the next Jacksonville game, C.J. Beathard would make his first start since Week 17 of the 2021 season in San Francisco.
Beathard made 12 starts in San Francisco. His teams posted a 2-10 record in those games, with Beathard completing 58.6% of his passes for 6.9 Y/A with 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
He did average 18.3 rushing yards per game in those starts.
Beathard will have a more talented supporting cast here than his early career starting opportunities, but he would still only be an option for those filling a vacated spot in 2QB formats.
The Saints have not been overly challenged by opposing passers, but they have held their end of things.
New Orleans is allowing 5.9 Y/A (fifth) while ranking fifth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.316).
Running Back
Travis Etienne: Etienne turned in another front-end fantasy performance in Week 6, turning 21 touches into 83 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Colts.
Etienne handled 21-of-26 backfield touches, giving him 82.2% of the backfield touches on the season (fourth in the league).
He leads the NFL in carries (113) and touches (134) now through six weeks.
He caught another three passes, giving him 21 catches through six games. He had 35 receptions in all of 2022.
The high backfield share and steady reception floor compared to a year ago are promising, but Etienne also cashed in another short-yardage scoring opportunity.
He now has played 7-of-8 snaps in goal-to-go situations the past two weeks, with all four backfield touches.
We want to have Trevor Lawrence here and healthy to max out scoring opportunities, but that was the last box Etienne was looking to check off as an RB1.
Jacksonville could look to reduce Etienne’s workload a bit on a short week, but he will stay in lineups.
The Saints have been good against the run, allowing 3.57 YPC to backs (eighth) and just 6.9 rushing points to backfields.
They are also the last remaining team in the league that has yet to allow a touchdown to an opposing running back.
Alvin Kamara: Kamara has been a touch machine since returning to the lineup, handling 24, 25, and 26 touches over the past three weeks.
Kamara has 23 receptions over that span, the most of all running backs.
The Saints could potentially get Jamaal Williams back this week, who has missed the past four games with a hamstring injury.
We want Kamara to sustain as much of that workload as possible because he once again has not been efficient per touch.
Kamara is averaging 3.8 yards per carry (35th) with a run of 10 or more yards on 5.8% of his carries, 45th in the league. He also is averaging a career-low 3.4 yards per target in the passing game.
Kamara has flipped his output from an early-career creator who thrived on efficient touches to being a volume-based grinder dependent on sustaining a high workload.
If Kamara once again has this backfield all to himself, he will be a volume-based RB1, with an increased boost in full-PPR formats.
If Williams does return, he should only shave a few touches away as he eases in, but he could be a potential thorn near the end zone for Kamara.
Jacksonville has also been stout up front to open the year.
The Jaguars are allowing just 3.44 YPC to backs (fourth) and 7.7 rushing points per game (fifth) to the position.
Where Jacksonville has been vulnerable to backs is in the passing game, allowing 10.6 receiving points per game (25th) to running backs, something Kamara has taken advantage of in two of his three weeks since coming back.
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Wide Receiver
Chris Olave: After three catches for 16 yards the previous two weeks, Olave secured 7-of-10 targets for 96 yards Sunday.
Olave has at least six receptions now in four of his six games.
Olave received a boost by running a season-high 51 pass routes and Carr attempting 50 passes, but he also received a higher rate of intermediate targets (30.0%) compared to the previous two games (9.1%) to boost his efficiency.
Olave is an upside-based WR1 in a heavy bye week.
The Jaguars have given up production to opposing wideouts.
They are allowing 8.6 yards per target (21st) and a 5.6% touchdown rate (25th) to the position.
Over the past three weeks, the Jaguars have allowed either 100 yards or a touchdown to each WR1 they have drawn in Drake London (3-28-1), Stefon Diggs (8-121-1), and Michael Pittman (9-109-0).
