As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook, and every other notable Jet, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Aaron Rodgers‘ on-target throw percentage was actually higher last season than it was in 2021, and PFF calculated his 2022 adjusted completion rate as roughly the same as it was the year before. That is not a surprise considering Rodgers tied for the league “lead” with 40 dropped passes, easily the highest number of his career.
- Garrett Wilson caught 83 passes for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns on his way to Rookie of the Year honors despite 16.3% of his target being deemed inaccurate.
- Breece Hall was impressive on a per-touch basis last season. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry (1st), 6.9 yards per touch (1st), and 2.02 yards per route run (2nd). 18.8% of his carries went for at least 10 yards (1st).
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2022 Jets Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 296 (29th)
- Total Offense: 5,409 (25th)
- Plays: 1,074 (15th)
- Offensive TDs: 28 (29th)
- Points Per Drive: 1.47 (29th)
- EPA+ Per Play: -8.6 (30th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 30.71 seconds (12th)
2023 Jets Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Robert Saleh
- Offensive Coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett
Mike LaFleur could rightfully point to New York’s quarterback situation when explaining the team’s offensive struggles the last two seasons – the offense finished 26th and 30th in EPA per play during his two years in charge – but it was not a surprise when the Jets announced they were moving on.
After a search that included some more interesting names, the Jets landed on one-and-done Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett as their next coordinator.
During his one season in charge, the Broncos finished dead last in points, 21st in total offense, 30th in points per drive, and 27th in EPA per play.
Perhaps those struggles can be placed at the feet of Russell Wilson, but Hackett has led a total of three top-15 offenses in his nine seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator.
Impressively, one of those was with Blake Bortles in Jacksonville, but the other two came with Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021.
Luckily, he will get to work with Rodgers again after the Jets acquired him just before the draft.
The Packers were seventh in neutral pass rate and 3% over their expected pass rate with both Rodgers and Hackett from 2019-2021, but they finished 18th, 31st, and 32nd in situation-neutral pace over that span.
Green Bay was 30th in total drives during that run, but they were second in points per drive.
It also has to be noted that was, ironically given who the Jets just fired, really Matt LaFleur’s offense, and Hackett has traditionally trended run-heavy outside of Green Bay.
Bortles did throw it 625 times in 2016, but the Jaguars were actually 25th in neutral pass rate that season.
Given how good New York’s defense projects to be, assuming this offense will trend more toward the run than those Green Bay offenses make sense, and pace could be a concern.
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2022 Jets Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 686 (6th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 51.5% (16th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -2.6% (16th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 23.3% (23rd)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 57% (21st)
2023 Jets Passing Game Preview:
The Jets will face the seventh-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Aaron Rodgers, Zach Wilson
- WR: Garrett Wilson, Irvin Charles
- WR: Allen Lazard, Malik Taylor
- WR: Mecole Hardman, Randall Cobb
- TE: Tyler Conklin, C.J. Uzomah
Aaron Rodgers undoubtedly took a step back last year, but Green Bay’s struggles were not all on him.
His on-target throw percentage was actually higher than it was in 2021, and PFF calculated his 2022 adjusted completion rate as roughly the same as it was the year before.
That is not a surprise considering Rodgers tied for the league “lead” with 40 dropped passes, easily the highest number of his career.
Those team struggles torpedoed his fantasy season.
Rodgers finished as the QB28 in fantasy points per game and never topped 20 fantasy points in any game.
His rushing production continued to slip. He averaged 5.5 rushing yards per game and managed just one rushing score.
With that rushing production gone, Rodgers will have to finish near the top of the league in passing fantasy points per game just to sniff QB1 value.
Can that happen?
As mentioned above, volume could be a concern given Hackett’s and Rodgers’ history together and the quality of New York’s defense.
If that concern proves valid, Rodgers will need elite efficiency to keep up with the top fantasy scorers.
The good news is he showed that level of efficiency in 2020 and 2021. Over that span, he averaged 8.0 yards per attempt and an 8% touchdown rate.
That YPA would have tied with Jalen Hurts for third among qualifying quarterbacks last season, and that touchdown rate would have easily beaten Patrick Mahomes’ 6.3% mark from a year ago.
Getting to once again play with an alpha receiver, it would not be a complete shock if Rodgers refound that form even coming off a down season.
Even if Rodgers looks more like his 2022 version, he will be better than what New York rolled out last year.
Three of the bottom six quarterbacks in completion rate over expected were Jets. They had easily the lowest percentage of on-target throws last season and the lowest mark in that category since the 2019 Lions.
Rodgers should be great news for Garrett Wilson, who thrived as a rookie despite that awful quarterback play.
Wilson caught 83 passes for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns on his way to Rookie of the Year honors despite 16.3% of his target being deemed inaccurate.
He was the WR30 in PPR points per game, but he was the WR17 in expected points according to PFF.
An improved offense with Rodgers should up that expected total, and Wilson has the talent to consistently better his expected total as long as Rodgers provides better quarterback play.
On the negative side, Wilson could have more competition for targets after the Jets added Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman in free agency.
Wilson was the target on 25% of New York’s throws and was targeted on 24.8% of his routes. No other Jet had better than a 15% target share a season ago.
That said, those target shares are repeatable for a clear WR1. Wilson ranked 14th and 15th in target share and target rate per route last season.
Rodgers also has a history of locking in on his WR1. Davante Adams averaged a 27.6% target share and was targeted on 29.3% of his routes over his final four seasons with the Packers.
Wilson looks like that kind of talent, should command targets from Rodgers, and should get more catchable balls on those targets.
Projecting a breakout for Wilson is not going out on a limb. He is consistently one of the top 10 receivers off the board in fantasy drafts. But sometimes the crowd is right.
*Preseason Update: The Corey Davis retirement both locks in Allen Lazard as the No. 2 receiver and makes it more likely Mecole Hardman will see the field in three-wide sets.
As for those other receivers, Allen Lazard set career highs in receptions and yardage last season as the nominal No. 1 receiver for Rodgers in Green Bay, although Christian Watson challenged that spot down the stretch.
Now Lazard finds himself behind another (likely) alpha WR1 like he was with Adams in Green Bay.
Behind Adams in a Hackett-coached offense from 2019-2021, Lazard was targeted on 16.1% of his routes (would have been 69th last season) and averaged 7.05 half-PPR points per game.
Perhaps there is a contingency value argument for Lazard if Wilson fails to meet expectations or suffers an injury, but he was the WR37 in per-game scoring in a similar situation last season.
Mecole Hardman is coming off an injury-shortened season and struggled to command targets even in a Tyreek Hill-less Chiefs offense last season (1.49 yards per route, 17.1% target rate per route).
This depth chart is stronger than the one in Kansas City last year, so it is difficult to believe Hardman will suddenly command a fantasy-relevant target share.
Still, there are worse late-round options than a receiver attached to Rodgers who has run 12.3% of his career routes at least 20 yards down the field.
Randall Cobb is also on this team. Frankly, good on Rodgers for supporting his guys.
Cobb was reportedly getting more targets in practice even before Davis' retirement, and now he has a clearer path to targets.
He was only targeted 50 times last season, but Cobb did earn a target on 20.1% of his routes and averaged 8.3 yards per target, respectable numbers that could indicate deep-league value if Cobb establishes himself as the WR3 ahead of Hardman.
In that 2019-2021 window where Rodgers played under Hackett in Green Bay, the quarterback targeted tight ends on 17.9% of his throws.
That number would have ranked 25th among qualifying quarterbacks last season, interestingly one spot ahead of where Rodgers actually ranked last year.
For his career, Rodgers has targeted tight ends on 18.6% of his throws.
Green Bay’s main tight ends over that three-year run were a past-it Jimmy Graham and Robert Tonyan, who to be fair did catch 11 touchdowns in 2020.
The combo of Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah is not much better than that group, but Conklin has earned a target on 18.1% of his routes over the last two seasons and has a combined 119-1,145-6 line over that span.
Conklin is at least worth a look in deep leagues and best ball.
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2022 Jets Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 386 (25th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.9 (11th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 3.81 (32nd)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 69% (30th)
2023 Jets Running Game Preview:
The Jets will face the 13th-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook, Michael Carter, Israel Abanikanda
- OL: Duane Brown, Laken Tomlinson, Connor McGovern, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Mekhi Becton
Following a couple of weeks of flirting, Dalvin Cook is now officially a Jet.
That signing is, obviously, not great news for Breece Hall’s fantasy value or a great sign for his recovery from a torn ACL, although he was activated from the PUP the day after Cook signed. Hall will actually start practicing before Cook, who is still recovering from shoulder surgery.
The contract size — $7 million base, $1.6 million in incentives — also confirms the Jets plan for Cook to have a large role.
That is not completely new for Hall. He was in something of a timeshare before he got hurt last season, handling 59% of New York’s RB rushing attempts over the first six weeks.
That run can be clearly broken into two groups, however.
Over the first three weeks, he averaged seven carries and 4.3 catches per game.
Over the next three, he averaged 18.3 carries and 2.0 receptions per game.
Hall still had two top-15 performances in those first three weeks thanks to his usage in the passing game, but the real RB1 production came over that final stretch when he handled 69% of the RB carries.
All of that said, Hall was impressive on a per-touch basis last season.
He averaged 5.8 yards per carry (1st), 6.9 yards per touch (1st), and 2.02 yards per route run (2nd).
18.8% of his carries went for at least 10 yards (1st).
Even assuming those numbers come down on a bigger workload, Hall has the profile of someone who can be a useful fantasy player in a timeshare.
That is not enough for those drafting him as a potential RB1, but Cook signing is not an abject disaster for Hall’s fantasy value.
Also, Hall was simply a much more efficient runner than Cook last season.
Cook has seen his yards per carry and EPA per rush fall each of the last two seasons. He ranked 22nd (4.4) and 37th (-0.13) in those marks last year.
The Vikings were not a great run-blocking unit last season, but Next Gen Stats ranked Cook 34th out of 48 running backs in yards over expected per attempt, suggesting he was also part of the problem.
Cook also did not offer much in the passing game last year.
He was 49th among qualifying backs in yards per route run (0.75) while grading out poorly as a blocker according to PFF. Things were about the same in both categories in 2021.
Cook has struggled in the red zone in recent seasons, converting just 8-of-27 carries inside the five over the last two years.
Those last two are important because it opens up the possibility Hall is the preferred option on passing downs and near the goal line, aka the important fantasy touches, even if there is more of a timeshare between the 20s.
Cook signing has to knock down Hall’s fantasy cost — he is a clear pass at current ADP — but there are avenues for the young back to remain a solid fantasy option even with the company, and Cook’s recent play opens the possibility Hall takes on more and more of the work as he gets healthier.
That is not as true for Cook given his recent history, and it will be especially difficult for him to return fantasy value if Hall is taking the most valuable touches.
Cook signing almost certainly marks the end for Michael Carter in New York.
Following a solid rookie season, Carter struggled in 2022, finishing 43rd out of 51 qualifying back in yards per touch.
His long-term dynasty value hinges on him finding a new team in the near future, and even then it is hanging on by a thread.