The simmering contract turmoil between Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts reached a full boil when news broke about the running back requesting a trade on Saturday night.
That news followed a meeting with team owner Jim Irsay, who is seemingly doing his best to alienate Indy's best offensive player.
#Colts owner Jim Irsay: “If I die tonight and Jonathan Taylor is out of the league, no one’s gonna miss us. The league goes on. We know that. The National Football (League) rolls on. It doesn’t matter who comes and who goes, and it’s a privilege to be a part of it.”
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) July 30, 2023
Never imagined Irsay was such a big fan of Arby's.
Will Jonathan Taylor get traded?
With the request official, the question is will this actually happen?
Our Nihilist King Irsay said no.
Text from @Colts owner @JimIrsay on Jonathan Taylor’s trade request (as reported by @RapSheet): “We’re not trading Jonathan… end of discussion. Not now and not in October!”
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) July 30, 2023
Recent history also suggests the answer is no. By and large, teams have not been willing to pay top dollar for running backs, and the Colts will certainly want that kind of return for their star player even coming off a down season.
How down was that season?
Taylor set career lows in yards per carry (4.5) and EPA per carry (-0.16) despite facing light boxes at the highest rate of his career. He ranked 19th and 38th among 41 qualifying backs in those two categories.
There are some caveats, though.
Taylor did not appear to be 100 percent even when he was playing later in the season, the Colts offensive line was at best an average run-blocking unit, and the offense as a whole ranked 31st in EPA per play.
It is still troubling Taylor was 15th in yards after contact per carry among those qualifying backs, but he was still sixth in rushing yards over expected per attempt according to Next Gen Stats.
He is likely still one of the best running backs in the league, but how valuable is that to another team, even a contending one, given Taylor has not shown much as a receiver thus far in his career?
His career 1.07 yards per route run and 17.3% target per route rate would have ranked 22nd and 28th among backs with at least 150 routes last season.
His career air yards per target is -1.25, which would have ranked 45th out of the 49 backs in that group last year.
The Panthers did get a good haul for Christian McCaffrey, but he offers a lot more as a pass catcher.
He is not the same level of player at this point in his career, but the Vikings could not move Dalvin Cook before releasing him, and Cook still has not found a home.
This situation could play out similarly to the Austin Ekeler trade request earlier in the offseason.
Unable to find a trade partner, Ekeler accepted a sweetener to his deal and will play for the Chargers this season.
Of course, Ekeler and the Chargers had not fallen out as publicly as Taylor and at least Irsay have seemingly done over the last week.
As always in the NFL, anything could happen.
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Fantasy Analysis:
Analyzing Taylor's post-trade fantasy value is difficult without knowing the destination.
Broadly, though, Taylor is currently slated to play in a questionable offense that is likely to start a rookie quarterback and has issues along the offensive line.
It would be difficult for him to find a worse offensive situation, but he could end up in more of a timeshare.
In his 11 games last season, Taylor handled 73% of the running back carries and had a 10.8% target share.
In 2021, he handled 77% of the running back carries and had a 10.2% target share.
If he lands with a team like the New York Jets, who are in the market for Dalvin Cook, or New England Patriots, who have been sniffing around veteran running backs recently, those shares will almost certainly come down.
If he goes to a team without an established back, however, he could end up with a similar workload in a better offense.
The Minnesota Vikings, for instance, could offer Taylor a clear RB1 role in what projects to be a better offensive environment.
That uncertainty will likely knock Taylor down a few spots in upcoming fantasy drafts, opening a buying opportunity given two of the three possibilities are either neutral (he stays with the Colts) or positive (he ends up the clear RB1 in a better situation).
As for the Colts, Zack Moss was quietly solid for them last season (4.8 yards per carry, 3.22 yards after contact per carry), but he suffered a broken arm that could sideline him into the season.
Deon Jackson was not nearly as efficient as Moss last season, but he had a couple of big fantasy games stepping in for Taylor thanks to his passing-game usage.
Fifth-round rookie Evan Hull might not get the immediate chance on early downs, but he projects as a good receiving option out of the backfield, which could allow him to get involved if Taylor misses any time.
All three players are worth some late-round dart throws until this situation plays out.
The Colts could also look to the robust veteran market. Players like Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt are still available.
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Where Will Jonathan Taylor be traded?
The Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, and New England Patriots make sense given rosters and recent news.
The Jets and Patriots are odd fits given they already have Breece Hall and Rhamondre Stevenson on their respective rosters.
The Jets have been heavily linked with Dalvin Cook, however, with the running back saying his chances of signing with the team are “pretty high.”
In clear win-now mode with Aaron Rodgers, perhaps the Jets turn their focus to Taylor now that he is available.
The Patriots have also been looking at veteran running backs, but they appear to be shopping at the bottom end of the price range.
The Vikings make a lot of sense as a landing spot for Taylor.
Their depth chart is currently topped by Alexander Mattison, a player who has averaged 3.7 yards per carry the last two years, and lacks established depth behind him.
Also in win-now mode with Kirk Cousins‘ time with the team seemingly coming to a close and in a wide-open division, the Vikings could take the plunge.
As Christian McCaffrey taught us last year, however, it could be anyone.
