The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Lions and Bears.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Detroit | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Spread | 6.5 | ||
| 27.25 | Implied Total | 20.75 | ||
| 32.8 | 1 | Points/Gm | 19.0 | 25 |
| 20.1 | 7 | Points All./Gm | 22.0 | 11 |
| 65.6 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 9 |
| 59.6 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.8 | 10 |
| 6.2 | 4 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.5 | 32 |
| 5.6 | 24 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 29 |
| 47.71% | 6 | Rush% | 40.97% | 23 |
| 52.29% | 27 | Pass% | 59.03% | 10 |
| 37.72% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 46.42% | 23 |
| 62.28% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 53.58% | 10 |
- The Bears are 5-1-1 against the spread at home compared to 2-5 on the road.
- Chicago averages 2.10 points per drive at home (16th) compared to a league-low 1.26 points per drive on the road.
- Detroit has allowed a league-low 1.35 points per drive on the road.
- The Lions average 2.95 points per drive, second in the league.
- Detroit has converted 70% (42-of-60) of their red zone trips into touchdowns, second in the league.
- The Bears have converted 32.3% of their third downs, ahead of only the Browns (28.6%).
- Detroit has converted 12.7% more third downs than their opponents, the best differential in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jared Goff: Falling into a jailbreak game script, Goff turned in the highest-scoring fantasy game of his career on Sunday.
Goff threw 59 passes (the third most of his career), completing 38 for 494 yards and 5 touchdowns.
He also added 13 rushing yards on his way to 41.1 standard points.
Detroit has gotten banged up on defense and faced two quality opponents these past two weeks, pushing the passing game.
Allowing 31 and 48 points in those games, Goff has thrown the ball 100 times in the past two weeks.
Chicago’s ability to push Detroit is tougher to trust, but with all of their defensive injuries, the Bears' improved splits at home, and the game being tighter in the first matchup between these teams, there is a path for Goff and this passing game to remain above expectations.
This matchup has given Goff trouble.
In his past three games against the Bears, Goff has connected on 61.5% of his passes for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt.
He threw 5 touchdowns with 5 interceptions in those games, finishing those weeks as the QB18 (13.7 points), QB26 (6.4 points), and QB17 (16.9 points).
We also will have the return of Goff playing outdoors in the cold.
Detroit has only played one game outside this season, which was in the rain in Green Bay.
Early forecasts do not show weather to be an issue here. It is just cold (25-30 degrees) without wind or precipitation.
However, you will still hear the splits, so I will lay them out.
Goff has played 7 career games with temperatures below 35 degrees.
He has thrown 1 or 0 touchdown passes in six of those games.
Goff is more on the QB1/QB2 line this week.
I prefer to use him for his floor versus expecting a ceiling outcome.
His history in this matchup and the potential that the game environment is not a shootout like the past two games hold more weight than the weather splits (since we are not expecting wind or precipitation).
There is still upside here as well.
This is another Cover 3 heavy opponent for this team, something they are no stranger to.
The Bears have played Cover 3 on 43.4% of passing plays, third in the league.
Goff leads the NFL in dropbacks against Cover 3 this season (204).
On those plays, he has completed 75.1% of his passes (3rd) for 9.5 Y/A (4th) and a 5.2% touchdown rate (4th).
Caleb Williams: Williams has been an all-or-nothing fantasy quarterback this season.
He has four games as a top-six scorer with nine games in the back half of weekly scoring.
That includes the past two weeks in two tough road matchups in San Francisco and Minnesota.
Williams was capable in this first matchup between these teams on Thanksgiving.
He overcame a disastrous first half to rally for a big fantasy finish.
Williams was 5-of-15 for 34 yards (2.3 Y/A) in the first half in Detroit to start Week 13, but then he connected on 15-of-24 passes for 222 yards (9.3 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns as Chicago stormed back.
They almost made a comeback, but a significant error by Williams and coaching malpractice from Matt Eberflus sabotaged their attempt at an upset.
Eberflus was fired the next day, turning things over to Thomas Brown, and the Bears have been blown out the past two weeks.
Williams remains a boom-or-bust QB2 for fantasy, but there are some pros to lean into if you are chasing the upside outcome.
Detroit is all sorts of banged up defensively to offer a softer matchup while we did see this passing game have success the last time that they faced off.
The Lions have allowed over 10.0 yards per pass attempt the past two weeks and continue to need help with mobile quarterbacks.
Detroit has allowed 61, 39, 23, and 68 rushing yards to quarterbacks over the past month, which includes Williams in Week 13.
The Lions are now 29th in rushing yards allowed to passers (27.9 per game).
Running Back
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More Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Broncos @ Chargers -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Texans @ Chiefs -- FREE | Saturday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens -- FREE | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Saints @ Packers -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
