Lions vs Browns Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns Sunday afternoon game.

• The Lions are averaging 2.2 fewer yards per pass attempt than their opponent, the worst differential in the league.
• Baker Mayfield leads the league in yards per pass attempt on first and second down passes (8.8 Y/A) but is averaging 5.9 Y/A on third downs (35th).
• Jared Goff has the league's lowest completion rate on throws 15 yards or further downfield, connecting on 12-of-48 (25.0%) of those attempts. League average is 42.6%.
• The Browns lead the NFL in rushing yardage gained on carries of 10 or more yards (843 yards), over 100 more yards than the next closest team (Indianapolis at 731 yards).
• Running backs have accounted for 46.8% of the Cleveland fantasy points, the highest rate among running back groups in the league.
• Detroit has run a league-low nine offensive plays inside of the opponent's 5-yard line.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield exited Sunday with a knee injury. Kevin Stefanski stated that the game environment played a role in Mayfield not staying in the game but monitor the situation throughout the week to ensure he will be on the field Sunday. 

When on the field, Mayfield has turned in just two weeks in the front half of weekly scoring, but he will carry some matchup appeal to go along with a strong team total at home against a Lions defense that is allowing a league-high 0.55 passing points per attempt this season. The only hang-up the Lions also face the second-fewest pass attempts per game (30.2), which forces opposing passers to do their damage through efficiency. The Browns will surely have no issues running the rock when they can, leaving Mayfield as a matchup-based streamer and QB2 option if he is good to suit up on Sunday.

Jared Goff: Goff has not finished higher than QB23 in a week since Week 2 and has even scored single-digit points in five of his past seven games since he has five games without a touchdown pass over that span. After passing for 114 yards and posting 4.6 yards per attempt last week, Goff is averaging just 9.6 yards per completion (ahead of only Jacoby Brissett) and is last in air yards per completion (3.6 yards). There is not a matchup note I can write that can make Goff more than a desperation 2QB option, but he is in risk of missing the game due to an oblique injury. If Goff cannot start, Tim Boyle would be in line to make his first NFL start. Boyle has more kneel downs (18) than NFL pass attempts (four).

Running Back

Nick Chubb (TRUST): Missing last week due to COVID, Chubb is anticipated to be back this week and runs into a juicy spot as a massive favorite at home against a Detroit defense that has allowed 144.4 yards from scrimmage per game to backfields (24th) and has allowed 16 touchdowns (31st) to opposing running backs. The Lions are respectable in terms of yards per carry allowed to backs (4.3 YPC, 16th), but they face 25.7 rushing attempts per game (third-most) by running backs. 

Chubb himself has handled 70.8% and 64.0% of the backfield touches in his two games playing without Kareem Hunt, who is not expected to be activated this week. D’Ernest Johnson has maxed out his playing time and could have matchup-based FLEX appeal, but Johnson tallied just five and eight touches in those previous two games with Chubb in the lineup.

D’Andre Swift: Swift had his first game as a bellcow back last week, turning a career-high 36 touches into 135 yards. Only five of his touches (and 10 yards) came in overtime.

Although he handled 85.7% of the Detroit backfield touches, ancillary contributors in Godwin Igwebuike and Jermar Jefferson housed long touchdown runs to snake Swift from finding the paint. 

Without Jamaal Williams the past two games, Swift has 66.7% and 84.6% of the team rushing attempts after 47.3% with Williams in the lineup. Swift has still struggled on the ground in relation to his peers in the offense (3.4 YPC), but that volume can make up for inefficiency if Williams is out of the lineup again. 

The Browns are allowing just 3.9 YPC to backs (sixth), but they did just struggle to slow down Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots run game a week ago, allowing a season-high 184 rushing yards. Swift also still carries a receiving out in PPR formats while the Browns are allowing 10.9 receiving points per game (18th) to backs. If Williams returns, Swift is still a fringe RB1 option with an added boost in touches if he has control of the touches once for another week.

Jamaal Williams: Williams has missed the past two games (and through a bye week) with a thigh injury. When active, Williams has served as more of a thorn for Swift than a standalone fantasy asset because he is not involved as a pass-catcher. Williams has just eight catches for 43 yards since Week 1. His only games as a top-36 scorer have come in weeks with a touchdown, leaving him as a touchdown-dependent FLEX if returns this weekend.

Wide Receiver

Jarvis Landry (TRUST): Since returning to the lineup in Week 7, Landry has secured 17-of-28 targets for 139 yards. He is still commanding a solid target share (24.8% over that span), but the 3.8 catches and 36.5 yards per game Landry is averaging would be career lows if they hold up for the rest of the season. 

This is a good week to still kick the tires on Landry’s target share as the Lions are 26th in points allowed per target (1.91) to opposing wideouts. The only rub is they face just 18.1 targets per game to opposing wideouts since they face so few pass attempts overall trailing in games. Still, if Landry can’t hit as a WR3 option here, then he shouldn’t be rostered in fantasy. 

Donovan People-Jones: Peoples-Jones only grabbed 1-of-5 targets for 16 yards last week, but he did run a pass route on a season-high 86.8% of the team dropbacks. He is just a number two on a low-volume passing game, which is going to cause volatility when he doesn’t find the end as he did over his previous two games. The Lions are allowing 9.5 yards per target (31st) and 14.3 yards per catch (29th) to opposing wideouts for those who are in a spot where they have to chase a splash play.

*Peoples-Jones suffered a groin injury in practice this week and is now questionable for Sunday. If he is unable to play, Rashard Higgins is in play in the deepest of leagues.

Lions WRs: Nine games into the year and the Detroit wide receiving corps has combined to produce seven top-36 scoring weeks on the season with three from Kalif Raymond, two from Amon-Ra St. Brown, and two from Quintez Cephus. Raymond has the only two WR2 or better scoring weeks and even has two WR1 weeks. He also has five weeks with three or fewer receptions and has zero catches in two of his past four games. 

The Browns have allowed big plays through the air, surrendering 8.6 yards per target (24th), 13.8 yards per catch (24th), and a 5.5% touchdown rate (25th) to opposing wideouts if you have to chase WR5/FLEX option here, with Raymond being the best bet to make for upside.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson was shut out last week, failing to grab a pass for the second time in his career. Hockenson was targeted just one time in a long overtime game in which he played 94% of the snaps and ran a route on 86.2% of the dropbacks, which was second among tight ends in Week 10. 

This also came after Hockenson had racked up 28.2%, 28.1%, and 34.4% of the targets over his previous three games. 

Hockenson is still averaging 5.3 catches per game with the donut last week (tied for third at the position), but his 9.3 yards per catch and failing to reach the end zone since Week 2 leave him as a back-half TE1 with more appeal in PPR formats. The Browns are allowing just 6.6 yards per target to tight ends (ninth), but they have allowed a 9.8% touchdown rate (31st) to the position if Hockenson is going to end his scoreless drought. 

Browns TEs: Cleveland tight ends have combined for three TE1 scoring weeks through nine games, with two coming from David Njoku and the third from Austin Hooper last week, when he just 25 yards receiving, but found the end zone. 

The tight ends here have just four touchdowns with Njoku having the only two games in which a Cleveland tight end has reached 50 yards in a game. Detroit is an equal opportunity defense in terms of allowing efficiency, allowing 8.6 yards per target to tight ends (26th), but have allowed just three TE1 scoring weeks to the position. 

More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

NE at ATL| GB at MIN | BAL at CHI | WFT at CAR | IND at BUF | DET at CLE | SF at JAX | HOU at TEN | MIA at NYJ | NO at PHI | CIN at LVR | ARI at SEA | DAL at KC | PIT at LAC | NYG at TB