As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and every other notable Lion, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown followed up his great rookie campaign with an even better sophomore effort. He finished eighth among qualifying receivers in yards per route run (2.41) and behind just Tyreek Hill in per-route target rate (30.3%). He needs to get more usage down the field to reach the next fantasy level – his 6.49 air yards per target ranked 79th out of 85 qualifying receivers – but he is already in the WR1 conversation.
- In addition to the six-game suspension, there is some concern about Jameson Williams’ fit with Jared Goff. Goff has not traditionally thrown down the field – 9.6% of his career passes have traveled at least 20 yards downfield – and his off-target rate on those throws was 33.3% last season, 22nd of 33 qualified quarterbacks.
- The question for Jahmyr Gibbs is how many touches will he get right out of the gate? Since 2010, nine running backs have been drafted No. 15 or higher. Those players averaged 252 touches in their rookie seasons, but C.J. Spiller is the only back on that list that feels like a solid comp for the 199-pound Gibbs. Spiller touched the ball 244 times total in his first TWO seasons in the league.
2022 Lions Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 453 (5th)
- Total Offense: 6,460 (3rd)
- Plays: 1,092 (12th)
- Offensive TDs: 52 (3rd)
- Points Per Drive: 2.48 (4th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 7.3 (6th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 29.77 seconds (7th)
2023 Lions Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Dan Campbell
- Offensive Coordinator: Ben Johnson
Detroit’s first big offseason move was not a move at all. OC Ben Johnson appeared to be a hot name on the coaching carousel, but the Lions managed to keep him in the building for at least another season.
It is not a surprise he was in demand.
The Lions with the sixth-best offense overall by EPA per play and ranked third in EPA per dropback.
Given how efficiently they threw the ball, they might have left points on the table with a 20th-ranked neutral pass rate and an overall pass rate nearly two percent under expected.
The passing game was that good despite T.J. Hockenson being traded seven games into the season and first rounder Jameson Williams seeing nine total targets.
Williams will once again miss time this season, this time because of a suspension, and the Lions are relying on a rookie at tight end.
Still, this offense should remain a quality unit in 2023.
2022 Lions Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 625 (20th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 50% (20th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -1.7% (13th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 19.2% (14th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 60% (16th)
2023 Lions Passing Game Preview:
The Lions will face the eighth-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Jared Goff, Hendon Hooker
- WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond
- WR: Jameson Williams, Josh Reynolds
- WR: Marvin Jones, Denzel Mims
- TE: Sam LaPorta, James Mitchell
Jared Goff had his best season since 2018, throwing for 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns, and seven interceptions on his way to a QB11 finish.
He was the QB15 in points per game among quarterbacks with multiple starts, and he finished as a QB1 in six out of 17 games.
Aside from a lower interception rate, nothing in the underlying numbers looked significantly different for Goff.
His off-target rate was right at his career average, and he was pressured at roughly the same rate, although he did a better job of avoiding sacks than he did in 2021.
Goff did throw a little more downfield, topping seven air yards per throw for the first time since 2019, but he was still 26th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in the percentage of his passes that traveled more than 10 yards downfield.
Perhaps he will be more willing to push the ball once Jameson Williams returns from suspension, but that conservative style matched with the Lions' bottom-half neutral pass rate does not leave a ton of room for upside, especially if the defense improves this year.
Unless he runs hot on touchdowns, Goff's back-end QB2 ADP looks about right.
Amon-Ra St. Brown followed up his great rookie campaign with an even better sophomore effort. He caught 106-of-146 targets for 1,161 yards and six touchdowns on his way to a WR11 points-per-game finish.
He finished eighth among qualifying receivers in yards per route run (2.41) and behind just Tyreek Hill in per-route target rate (30.3%).
His 6.49 air yards per target ranked 79th out of 85 qualifying receivers, but he made up for it by finishing 15th in yards after the catch per reception (5.09). His YAC/catch career average stands at 4.92, so that number does not look fluky.
Volume has certainly played a role in St. Brown’s fantasy success to this point. He saw 27.9% of Detroit’s targets when healthy last year and has been targeted on 26.5% of his career routes.
There is at least some concern those target rates will take a hit if Williams hits the ground running following his suspension and Jahmyr Gibbs establishes himself as a real factor in the passing game, but D’Andre Swift, Kalif Raymond, D.J. Chark, and Josh Reynolds combined for 245 targets last season.
Even if quality second and third options emerge, there is room for St. Brown to be a target hog and back-end fantasy WR1, especially in PPR leagues. If he starts to be used more downfield, he could be even more valuable than that.
Speaking of Williams, he is set to begin the season on the sidelines after picking up a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy.
Williams missed the first 11 games of last season recovering from a college knee injury, and he was targeted just nine times in his six active games.
This situation is different, though. Williams is healthy, will get a full offseason to establish himself in the offense, and will not have any setback concerns once he returns from suspension.
Players who open the season suspended are often undervalued. Williams will be back before the bye weeks really hit, and his roster spot is not as important when more players a healthy early in the season. Also, unlike injured players, he should be a full-go as soon as he is eligible to return from suspension.
There is some concern about how he fits with Goff, however. As mentioned above, Goff has not traditionally thrown down the field – 9.6% of his career passes have traveled at least 20 yards downfield – and his off-target rate on those throws was 33.3% last season, 22nd of 33 qualified quarterbacks.
One-third of Williams’ targets were at least 20 air yards last season, and his 22% inaccurate target rate would have been the fifth-highest if he had enough targets to qualify.
That was an extremely small sample (37 routes), though, and Williams has the playmaking upside to elevate Goff’s downfield ability.
Coming at too big of a discount because of the suspension and with playmaking upside in a solid offense, Williams is a fine upside swing.
The Lions did bring home Marvin Jones in free agency, but he did not appear to have much left in the tank with the Jaguars last season – 1.12 yards per route run, easily the lowest of his career.
He and Josh Reynolds could battle for the No. 2 spot while Williams is suspended, but Kalif Raymond was quietly effective last season and could be Detroit’s best bet.
The Lions did trade for Denzel Mims. It is tough to get too excited about a 26-year-old with 42 career catches, but Mims is on paper exactly what the Lions need, especially while Williams is suspended.
He is at least worth monitoring during camp.
Whatever happens, it will be tough to trust any receiver outside of St. Brown while Williams is out.
Investing in rookie tight ends has not traditionally worked out for fantasy. Greg Dulcich did break that mold a bit last year, and Sam LaPorta is entering a situation with zero proven players on the depth chart.
While his counting stats were not great in Iowa’s anemic passing game, LaPorta accounted for 30.2% of the team’s completions and 32.3% of their passing yards last season.
LaPorta also showed out at the Combine, running a 4.59 40 with an elite 6.91 three-cone on his way to a 9.01 relative athletic score (10 is the max).
Finally, a third of Goff’s goal-to-go throws have targeted tight ends over the last two seasons. Brock Wright, Shane Zylstra, and James Mitchell combined for nine touchdowns last season from Week 8 on (after Hockenson was traded).
A fifth-round sophomore, Mitchell does carry pass-catching upside and could make a push for targets, but LaPorta should get every opportunity to win this job. That makes him worth a TE2 flier in deeper leagues and best ball.
2022 Lions Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 466 (10th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 3.0 (9th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.66 (6th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 72% (8th)
2023 Lions Running Game Preview:
The Lions will face the fourth-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Craig Reynolds
- OL: Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Penei Sewell
This backfield will look completely different in 2023.
After letting Jamaal Williams walk in free agency, the Lions signed David Montgomery away from the division-rival Bears to be their new early-down option.
The real shock came on draft night when Detroit selected Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. They traded D’Andre Swift to the Eagles later that weekend.
Williams and Swift combined for 421 touches and 25 touchdowns last season. There is a massive opportunity available here for both new backs.
The question is how many touches will Gibbs get right out of the gate?
Only 199 pounds at the Combine, Gibbs’ touch ceiling is tough to know.
Teams have traditionally viewed players of his archetype as situational and complementary options. Of course, those players usually are not taken in the first half of the first round.
Since 2010, nine running backs have been drafted No. 15 or higher. Those players averaged 252 touches in their rookie seasons.
There are some red flags on that list, however.
Christian McCaffrey was bigger than Gibbs and had a much larger workload in college, but he touched the ball 197 times as a rookie.
C.J. Spiller feels like a better stylistic comp for Gibbs, and he touched the ball 244 times total in his first TWO seasons in the league.
The NFL is much different than it was when Spiller was drafted in 2010, and the Lions surely have a plan to use Gibbs.
Still, it would not be shocking if he falls under the 200-touch mark as a rookie – Swift averaged 10.5 touches per game last season – and that would make it difficult for him to return high-end fantasy value, especially if he is not getting work around the goal line.
On the other hand, Gibbs is an incredibly explosive back and will hit big plays if given the opportunity.
He looks like a risk-reward fantasy pick that is perfectly suited for teams who ignore running back in the first three rounds.
Montgomery is the opposite of explosive.
Just 8.5% of his career runs have gone for more than 10 yards – would have ranked 47th last year, just ahead of Williams – and he has averaged 4.5 yards per touch throughout his career – also would have been 47th last year, tied with Leonard Fournette.
Montgomery has needed volume to return fantasy value to this point in his career, and there is a chance he does not get it if Gibbs is actually used the way a first-round running back usually is.
Of course, Gibbs’ touches could be limited, and Montgomery has a massive out even if Gibbs takes on a lot of work: touchdowns.
Williams lapped the field with 38 carries on goal-to-go plays last season. Ezekiel Elliott and Joe Mixon tied for second with 22.
Montgomery has also done well in short-yardage situations in his career.
Over the last four seasons, he has a 64.7% success rate on third or fourth and short. That is just below where Williams was last year.
Montgomery is not an exciting fantasy pick, and he will likely struggle if Gibbs grabs a large share of the backfield work early.
However, he is joining a team that has run on 57.8% of their goal-to-go plays since Campbell took over (7th), has a good offensive line, and projects to be at worst a solid offense.
He is worth the back-end RB3 price.
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