Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Preview 2024

As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.

This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and every other notable Lion as well as in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.

Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.

2023 Lions Stats (NFL Rank):

• Points: 461 (5th)
• Total Offense: 6,712 (3rd)
• Plays: 1,137 (2nd)
• Yards Per Play: 5.9 (3rd)
• Offensive TDs: 57 (2nd)
• Points Per Drive: 2.42 (4th)
• Situation Neutral Pace: 27.6 (8th)

2024 Lions Coaching Staff:

• Head Coach: Dan Campbell
• Offensive Coordinator: Ben Johnson

The Lions scored yet another coaching carousel win when Ben Johnson once again decided to stay on as offensive coordinator.

It is only a matter of time until Johnson jumps for a head coaching job, but he will be back leading this offense for at least another season.

That is great news considering the success this attack has had under Johnson.

The Lions were near the top of the league in every important category on offense last season, running a high-scoring, fast-paced offense despite lagging behind the pack in dropback rate.

With all of the main pieces back for this season, there is little reason to expect a dropoff.

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2023 Lions Passing Stats:

• Dropbacks: 639 (17th)
• Neutral Pass Rate: 49.9% (25th)
• Pass Rate Over Expected: -3.9% (25th)
• Pressure Rate Allowed: 35.7% (18th)
• ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 60% (13th)

2024 Lions Passing Game Preview:

The Lions will face the seventh-easiest passing schedule based on 2023 efficiency numbers.

• QB: Jared Goff, Hendon Hooker
• WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tom Kennedy
• WR: Jameson Williams, Daurice Fountain
• WR: Kalif Raymond, Donovan Peoples–Jones
• TE: Sam LaPorta, Brock Wright

Coming off yet another outstanding season, Jared Goff was rewarded with a four-year, $212 million extension this offseason that ties him to the team through 2028.

He struggled a bit more with interceptions in 2023 than the previous year, but Goff finished seventh among qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play, eighth in yards per attempt, and ninth in touchdown rate.

He checked in as the QB14 in per-game fantasy scoring among qualified quarterbacks and was fourth among that same group in passing fantasy points per game.

He was sixth in passing fantasy points per dropback.

Of course, the issue is he was 27th in rushing fantasy points per game, averaging just 1.2 rushing yards per game with two rushing scores.

Goff ranked 20th among all quarterbacks in goal-to-go rushing attempts with three. He had two in 2022.

Absent those opportunities shockingly increasing or Goff becoming an even more efficient fantasy passer – remember he was already sixth per dropback last season – it is tough to see him cracking the QB1 group.

It is also possible an improved defense leads to fewer overall passing opportunities for Goff after the Lions spent resources on that side of the ball.

Goff does at least offer an easy-to-follow streaming guide.

He averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game at home last season (QB7) and 13.8 on the road (QB20).

He was the QB6 at home and QB26 on the road in 2022.

There is also a big split for him indoors vs. outdoors.

Goff was the QB6 per game indoors last season and the QB20 per game outdoors.

13 of Detroit's first 14 games are indoors with the only real threats for truly bad weather in Week 9 in Green Bay and Week 16 in Chicago.

Perhaps that extremely favorable schedule elevates Goff a bit this season.

Regardless of his personal fantasy success, Goff’s passing efficiency greatly benefits Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

St. Brown took yet another step forward in 2023, setting career highs with 119 catches, 1,515 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 2.63 yards per route run.

That yards per route run number ranked sixth among qualifying receivers, and he finished as the WR4 in half-PPR scoring per game.

Unsurprisingly, St. Brown signed a massive extension over the offseason that ties him to the team through 2028.

There is no doubt St. Brown is an elite fantasy receiver, but if poking holes, it is fair to question his touchdown total from last season.

Nothing really changed from a usage perspective for him last season, but he scored 10 times after finding the end zone 11 times total through his first two seasons.

His seven targets on goal-to-go plays were exactly the same as in 2022, and he actually caught fewer TDs in those situations.

He had one fewer target to the end zone last season than in 2022, and he caught one fewer touchdown on those attempts.

St. Brown scored four touchdowns of 25 or more yards last season including a 70-yarder against the Vikings.

Longer touchdowns may be more normal for him moving forward – his air yards per target was a career-high last season – or his usage near the end zone could expand.

Still, it is something to know when trying to differentiate between St. Brown and the other elite options at the position.

LaPorta had as good a season as we have seen from a rookie tight end.

He finished fourth among qualifying tight ends with 86 receptions, fifth with 889 yards, led the group with 10 touchdowns, and was sixth in yards per route run.

LaPorta saw a target on 23.8% of his routes (third) despite playing with an alpha target hog in St. Brown.

He finished just ahead of Travis Kelce for the TE1 spot in half-PPR per game scoring and was behind just George Kittle in receiving fantasy points per target.

While a healthy and involved Jameson Williams could offer a little more target competition, the Lions did nothing of note to add to the pass-catching group over the offseason.

In fact, the departure of Josh Reynolds could open up even more opportunities near the goal line.

LaPorta led the team with 9 targets in goal-to-go situations last season, and Reynolds was third with 5 of his own.

LaPorta deserves his TE1 overall ADP, but if you are picking nits, he did blow past his expected touchdown rate last season.

That is a concern because he relied on those to really hit the highest of the fantasy highs.

With touchdowns removed from the scoring, LaPorta was the TE6 in half-PPR scoring last season.

That is still very good but would be a disappointment at his current ADP if his touchdown luck regresses, especially since Kelce was first in non-TD half-PPR scoring per game last season despite the down year.

Again, LaPorta is an ascending young player who had as good a rookie season as we have seen at the position, so it is important not to overthink it, but there is at least a small concern.

As for Williams, he is coming off another mostly lost season, but there were at least glimpses late in the year.

He played over 50% of the offensive snaps in every game he was active from Week 10 on last season including the playoffs, averaging just over 2 catches and 33 receiving yards per game.

Those numbers are not anything to write home about, but it was at least a step forward.

Williams also earned praise for his work this spring, with Dan Campbell saying he was the most improved player during offseason practices.

It is tough to bet too much on a player with 25 career regular season catches through two seasons, but the depth chart is wide open, and Williams appears to be making the right impressions to take advantage of that opportunity.

Even if he earns that role, though, there are concerns in this offense.

First, St. Brown and LaPorta combined for nearly 50% of the team’s targets last season, and there is little reason to expect a big change in that department aside from an injury given how good both were with that work.

Second, Williams has struggled to connect with Goff since entering the league, albeit on a limited sample.

Williams has the 15th-highest inaccurate target rate among receivers with at least 50 targets over the last two seasons.

Goff’s accuracy rate on deep targets over that span is not terrible, suggesting there is room for improvement for the pair’s connection, but Goff ranks 35th out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks in deep throw rate.

A former No. 12 overall pick who seemingly had a good offseason and has a clear path to targets on a great offense, the upside case for Williams is easy and probably the only thing that matters at his draft cost.

But there are obvious concerns.

Kalif Raymond is back, and the Lions re-signed Donovan Peoples–Jones after trading for him during the 2023 season.

Raymond should be the favorite for the No. 3 receiver spot, and that could become the No. 2 spot if Williams does not take a step forward.

He has run at least 25 routes in 18 games since joining the team in 2021. He has posted a 61-743-3 line in those 18 games.

Peoples-Jones barely played after joining the team last season, but he did catch 61 passes for 838 yards and 3 touchdowns with the Browns back in 2022.

He would also seemingly fit better as a replacement for Josh Reynolds if the Lions are looking for a bigger receiver.

Daurice Fountain is the receiver from the backup group making the most noise in camp.

2023 Lions Rushing Stats:

• RB Rushing Attempts: 449 (2nd)
• Yards Before Contact Per RB Attempt: 1.76 (3rd)
• ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 71% (13th)

2024 Lions Running Game Preview:

The Lions will face the 13th-toughest rushing schedule based on 2023 efficiency numbers.

• RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery
• OL: Taylor Decker, Graham Glasgow, Frank Ragnow, Kevin Zeitler, Penei Sewell

There is a positional value conversation to be had about whether a running back can ever pay back draft cost in the early first round given the replaceability of the position, but Jahmyr Gibbs did his best to pay back the Lions as a rookie.

He ran for 945 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground and added a 52-316-1 line through the air on his way to an RB11 finish in half-PPR fantasy points per game.

Just behind him on that list was teammate David Montgomery, who rushed for 1,015 yards and 13 scores in addition to 16 catches for 117 yards.

Detroit’s backfield was third in the league in combined fantasy points last season.

Projecting forward, the Lions gave a good indication of how they want this backfield split with both guys healthy late last season.

Detroit RBs From Week 10 On:

Importantly for Gibbs, he had one more carry in goal-to-go situations than Montgomery over that span and finished with the same number of rushing touchdowns.

He was also much more involved as a receiver, running 100 more routes and seeing double the targets over that span.

Gibbs was the RB10 in half-PPR scoring per game over that span with Montgomery checking in as the RB17.

The concern moving forward with Gibbs is draft cost.

He showed his tremendous upside when given the backfield to himself last season, averaging 23 touches, 132 yards from scrimmage, and scoring twice in three games without Montgomery.

He averaged 19.7 half-PPR fantasy points in those three games, right in line with Kyren Williams’ average last season and not far behind Christian McCaffrey.

If he had this backfield to himself, his current RB4 draft cost would be an easy buy.

But as of now he doesn’t, and while his RB10 fantasy finish with both backs healthy from Week 10 on last season would not be a disaster even at his current draft cost, is there upside for more assuming Montgomery is healthy in an offense that was already at the top of the league last season?

Gibbs feels a little overpriced as it stands right now, but it is tough to argue too strongly against taking a swing on someone who is an injury away from overall RB1 usage.

In that same vein, Montgomery had one full game without Gibbs last season, and he rushed for 109 yards, set a season-high with six targets, and scored 19.9 half-PPR points.

That kind of usage upside in a big offense is also there for Montgomery at a much cheaper price.