The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Vikings and Lions.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Detroit | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 26.0 | ||
| 30.2 | 1 | Points/Gm | 27.8 | 6 |
| 18.2 | 8 | Points All./Gm | 15.2 | 3 |
| 65.6 | 4 | Plays/Gm | 59.0 | 25 |
| 63.4 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 68.6 | 32 |
| 6.3 | 3 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 17 |
| 5.2 | 11 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 5 |
| 50.30% | 6 | Rush% | 48.14% | 10 |
| 49.70% | 27 | Pass% | 51.86% | 23 |
| 31.55% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 27.11% | 1 |
| 68.45% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 72.89% | 32 |
- Minnesota has a +63-point differential, which is first in the league.
- Detroit has a +60-point differential, which is second in the league.
- The Vikings have outscored opponents 48-3 in the first quarter this season, the largest margin in the league.
- The Lions average 3.8 passing plays of 20 or more yards per game, which is third in the league.
- Minnesota averages 3.6 passing plays of 20 or more yards per game, which is fourth in the league.
- The Lions have converted 15.2% more third downs than their opponents, the highest rate in the league.
- The Vikings have converted 11.4% more third downs than their opponents, second in the league.
- 38.2% of Detroit's set of downs reach third down, second in the league behind the Ravens (36.2%). The league average is 45.9%.
- 14.5% of Detroit's set of downs reach third and long (needing 7 or more yards), the lowest rate in the league.
- The Vikings average a league-high 6.6 sacks plus takeaway per game.
- Detroit has allowed 2.8 sacks plus takeaways per game, which is fourth in the league.
- The Vikings are the only team that has not allowed a touchdown from outside of the red zone.
- The Vikings are the last remaining undefeated team versus the point spread.
- The Lions are 22-10 against the spread as an underdog under Dan Campbell.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Sam Darnold: When we last saw Darnold in London against the Jets, he finally had a spot of regression we have been expecting since his blazing start to the season.
He is coming off a QB27 (4.3 points) scoring week, completing 45.2% of his passes with an interception.
Darnold does have an interception in four of five games this season.
Despite the down week, Darnold still leads all quarterbacks in passing points per attempt (0.587).
He will have another tougher matchup this weekend out of his bye.
The Lions are second in the NFL in passing points allowed per attempt (0.273).
Detroit has allowed one or fewer passing touchdowns in every game this season, allowing 6.6 yards per pass attempt (8th) and 10.2 yards per completion (8th).
I prefer to use Darnold as a QB2 and soak up a spike week should we get there, but a few points offer a path for added success here for the Minnesota passing game.
The first is the loss of Aidan Hutchinson.
Hutchinson was the league leader in pressures (45), 10 more than the next closest pass rusher this season.
25.0% of his snaps as a pass rusher generated pressure. No player with as many pass rush snaps as Hutchinson had a higher rate.
When the Lions have pressured the opposing passer, they have allowed a 49.2% completion rate (15th), 5.0 yards per attempt (9th), and a first down or touchdown on 26.2% of those attempts (15th).
When they have not generated pressure, Detroit has allowed a 71.5% completion rate (18th), 7.3 Y/A (15th), and a first down or touchdown on 35.8% of those attempts (20th).
We also should see a lot of dropbacks for Darnold to stack counting stats.
The Lions face 40.4 pass attempts per game, the third-most in the league.
Jared Goff: After a slow start to the season, Goff has been hyper-efficient recently.
Over his past three games, Goff has completed a league-high 81.8% (54-of-66) of his passes for a league-high 12.2 yards per pass attempt with 7 touchdowns and 1 interception.
He has been a top-five fantasy scorer in his past two starts against the Seahawks (27.2 points) and Cowboys (25.1 points).
Minnesota has faced several good passing games to open the season but still ranks fifth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.303), allowing 6.3 Y/A (5th), a 60.3% completion rate (4th), and 10.4 yards per completed pass (13th).
In the two matchups between these teams a year ago, Goff had weeks as the QB22 (14.3 points) and the QB5 (20.8 points).
Brian Flores did what he does against Goff last year.
Minnesota blitzed him on 73.0% of his dropbacks, their highest blitz rate versus any quarterback they faced multiple times.
They played zone coverage on 72.7% of those dropbacks behind the blitzes, playing Cover 3 on 41.6%.
The Vikings pressured Goff 33.8% of those dropbacks, which was critical to his success when they slowed him down.
When Minnesota pressured Goff, he was 9-of-23 (39.1%) for 4.7 Y/A in those games.
When they did not get to Goff, he completed 44-of-49 (89.8%) passes for 9.6 yards per attempt and 3 touchdowns.
Like Darnold, I prefer to use Goff as a floor-based QB2 and take any spike week that we get.
However, I believe Goff has a path to an upside outcome if you have been using him in 1QB formats and do not have a pivot you love.
This game could be an outright shootout. Goff is hot, and if Minnesota does not pressure him, you see the efficiency he is capable of.
The Vikings have had play-by-play success against the pass, but they did allow Brock Purdy and Jordan Love to have 300-yard passing games.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Broncos @ Saints | Thursday Night Football |
| Patriots vs. Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET (London) |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Commanders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Steelers | Sunday Night Football |
| Ravens @ Bucs | Monday Night Football |
| Chargers @ Cardinals | Monday Night Football |