In Monday night’s Showdown, the Miami Dolphins visit the New Orleans Saints.  For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

After Ian Book was announced as the Saints starting QB, the Dolphins have moved from underdogs to favored by a field goal. There's a decent amount of cheap values and punt plays available from each team. I will update with roster strategy once exposure projections are available. 

DK Values

  • Nick Vannett ($400)
  • Adam Shaheen ($200) or Durham Smythe ($600) – Could play both, but negatively correlated, risky, punt TEs
  • Saints DST ($3800)

Strategy

Oddly enough, this is the first time I've seen underdogs of three or more expected to be more utilized in 5-1 and 4-2 constructions. For the 5-1 onslaughts, Saints builds are expected near 6% while Dolphins are under 4%. The gap grows with the 4-2 build, with Saints over 31% and Dolphins under 20%. 3-3 builds are most popular, expected to approach 40%.

When viewing rostership projections, the reason for the underdog popularity becomes clear; Alvin Kamara 17-29% CPT and 67-90% total. Tua Tagovailoa is next with 12-14% CPT and Jaylen Waddle could be 8-12% CPT, but then it gets cloudy.  Ian Book is such an unknown, that his projected CPT utilization varies from 2-14%. The narrative is that he is athletic and could get some rushing production, which negatively correlates him with Kamara and doesn't really help stacks with his pass-catchers. With the total below 38, it likely won't take much from some of these dart-throw options to make the optimal. The Miami RBs seem grossly overpriced given the nut-low matchup vs this Saints rush defense, and I'd advocate for using neither at CPT. This looks like a good Showdown to mix in more DST, kickers, and low-priced depth options. I also like going underweight on Tua, who has not shown a high-ceiling, while pivoting to Waddle and Book.

DK Leverage

  • Saints WRs – (Unlikely more than two do well, so make a group with negative boosts or ‘at most 1-2' due to rookie QB in 1st start)
  • RB2 from either team (Ingram from NO, but unknown from MIA. Was surprisingly Gaskin last week)

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • Max 2 Saints WRs group (or negative boost group)
  • Negative boost same team RBs
  • If CPT Book, max 2 WRs
  • If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack 
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Leave salary unspent 

FD Values

  • Marquez Callaway ($8500)
  • Ian Book ($12,000)

FD Leverage

  • Either Miami RB ($11,000) – I wouldn’t play both together 

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.