In Monday night’s Showdown, the Minnesota Vikings visit the Chicago Bears. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.
The Vikings are favored by just under a touchdown. There are a few value plays to choose from with both kickers being near the top. I Alexander Mattison is ruled out which leaves Dalvin Cook with an uncapped ceiling. A similar situation is occurring at WR, with Adam Thielen out, boosting the projections of Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborne. I expect the favorites to be more rostered than is optimal and for an underdog-heavy strategy to offer leverage, as gross as it may be.
Strategy
The utilization of each roster construction is projected ridiculously similar to last nights showdown of the Saints vs Buccaneers. Nearly a quarter of all lineups are likely to use five Vikings while less than 1% are expected to use five Bears. Additionally, than 7% with four bears and just over 26% are willing to use three. The most utilized construction should be four Vikings at over 42%.
I wouldn’t blame anyone for wanting to only build as if the Vikings win because all of the best value plays are Vikings except for the Bears kicker, Cairo Santos. It makes sense to go under the field with four-Vikings builds and focus more on the other options.
The top CPT choices are likely to be Jefferson (18-21%) and Cook (16-18%). The exact order of the next group is unclear, with Osborn, David Montgomery, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins and Darnell Mooney all expected between 5–11% at CPT. It looks like Cousins and Osborne are strong options to go the field with at both CPT and flex. I also like the idea of working in the Vikings DST as well as some depth options like Cole Kmet, Tyler Conklin and each kicker. Both Jimmy Graham and Damien Williams are viable as dart-throws.
DK Values
- K.J. Osborn ($5800)
- Tyler Conklin ($5400)
- Either Kicker
DK Leverage
- Jakeem Grant Sr. ($5000)
- Damiere Byrd ($4600) – Would use at most one at a time, prefer Grant to Byrd
DK Build Ideas
- Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
- Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
- Max 1 of Grant / Byrd
- Negative boost same team RBs and same team TEs
- If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
- Cumulative ownership under 250%
- Leave salary unspent
FD Values
- Tyler Conklin ($8000)
- K.J. Osborn ($9000)
FD Leverage
- Jakeem Grant Sr. ($7000)
- Damiere Byrd ($6500) – Would use at most one at a time, prefer Grant to Byrd
FD Build Ideas
- No K or TE at MVP
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
- If WR CPT, boost QB
- QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
- Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
- Don’t force the max salary
For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.