In Monday night’s Showdown, the New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

The Bills are favored by a field goal and have slightly better values overall. Running the optimizer without any build rules brings back predominantly rosters with four Bills with three being the next most common. I will update with roster strategy once exposure projections are available. 

Strategy

There’s a lot of talk about this being a bad weather game, which could push the field more to RB–heavy builds. Currently, even bills of 3–3 are expected to be utilized over 41% with four Bills lineups next at 32%. The Bills 5–1 onslaught is nearly 5 access popular as the Patriots onslaught. The roster construction with for patriots is near 15% which seems too low for a closely lined divisional game. This is a fine spot to build as if the underdogs win for leverage.

it should come as no surprise that Josh Allen will be the most rostered player with 31–34% CPT and 88–92% total. Stefon Diggs is next with 13–16% CPT end 67–69% total. I’d recommend being contrarian in one or two slots when using one or both of Allen or Diggs, especially with one at CPT. Building with any other player at CPT will allow for easy differentiation as long as you don’t default to the most obvious players with the rest of the lineup. Zack Moss is unexpectedly active at only $600, making him the obvious choice from the Buffalo backfield. The patriots are also using a three-man committee, making it difficult to take a stand on any of their RBs. Some potentially under-rostered options I like are Jacoby Meyers, Dawson Knox, and either of Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith.

DK Values

  • Zack Moss ($600) – Surprise active and underpriced
  • Dawson Knox ($5400)

DK Leverage

  • Damien Harris ($10,000)
  • Anyone $4000 or lower besides Moss

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • Max 2 RBs from same team
  • Negative boost Henry/Smith group
  • Negative boost same team RBs
  • If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack 
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Leave salary unspent 

FD Values

  • Matt Breida ($7500)
  • Zack Moss ($7000)

FD Leverage

  • Damien Harris ($12,500)
  • Brandon Bolden ($7500)

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.