In Monday night’s Showdown, the New Orleans Saints are visiting the Seattle Seahawks. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

Strategy

Alvin Kamara is expected to be rostered at absurdly high levels, 30–36% CPT & 82–86% overall. Omitting him from a lineup will easily differentiate it, tough it is unlikely for him to fail here without an injury knocking him out. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are next between 10–15% CPT 44–51% total. Keep in mind they are negatively correlated, and unlikely to both exceed their projections and less Geno Smith is in the optimal, likely as CPT.  With these rostership projections in mind, we could pivot to the Saints passing game or the Seahawks running game for easy leverage. Even more so than last night, onslaught’s are expected to go under-used relative to historical winning lineups, with the underdog 5-1 build at only 1.5%. The 3-3 build is expected >40% so I would try to do that less and make those lineups a bit more contrarian. My favorite angle would be to go over weight on the Saints passing game, because their receivers are low priced, with Kenny Stills being an especially strong value. Jameis Winston hasn’t been impressive this season, but we have seen his high ceiling previously, and the Seahawks defense has been terrible.

DK Values

  • Kenny Stills ($1600)
  • Adam Troutman ($1800)
  • Rashad Penny ($2600)

DK Leverage

  • Juwan Johnson ($2200)
  • Freddie Swain ($2000)

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • Negative boost same team RBs
  • Negative boost Lockett and Metcalf
  • If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack 
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%, even lower in 3-3 builds
  • Leave salary unspent, even more in 3-3 builds

FD Values

  • Kenny Stills ($5000)
  • Tre’Quan Smith ($8500)

FD Leverage

  • Rashad Penny ($10000) – uncertain workload, priced closely to Alex Collins
  • Anyone $7000 or lower besides Stills and Adam Troutman

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.