In Monday night’s Showdown, the New York Giants visit the Kansas City Chiefs. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.
As 10 point favorites, I expect the Chiefs to be heavily rostered by the field in 4–2 and 5–1 builds. Most will expect Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill to have a nice bounce-back after last week's dud. The Giants' offense is beaten up, as Saquon Barkley is still out, while Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney are questionable. If both WRs are out, it should impact the slate by opening up significant value with their replacements.
Strategy
It looks like less than 10% of rosters will contain four or more Giants tonight, again supporting an underdog-heavy approach for differentiation, which worked out with the Cowboys upset last night. The most popular build looks to be the 4–2 chiefs, with over 40% utilization. This doesn’t necessarily mean you should avoid that altogether, though I would go well under that percentage and ensure to get extra contrarian on those ones. You could do so by leaving extra salary on the table, allowing more negatively correlated plays, or including two or more depth players that most of the field would prefer one or less of per lineup. The 3–3 build should account for nearly 30% as well.
Mahomes looks to be Rostered 17–20% CPT and 75–80% total. Hill is nearby at 14–19% CPT and 60–68% total. Kelce, Daniel Jones and Darrell Williams are grouped between 7–12% CPT. I prefer to go overweight on Williams and Jones from these top five. I’m not very interested in using a ton of the Giants WR because the Chiefs have continued to limit opposing WR production. This has me pivoting some to Evan Ingram and Devante booker. The kickers and DST are looking very low owned tonight, and mixing in depth options like Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle and Jerick McKinnon makes sense in chalkier builds.
DK Values
- Jerick McKinnon ($1000)
- Mecole Hardman ($4800)
DK Leverage
- Dante Pettis ($5000)
- Byron Pringle ($2200)
DK Build Ideas
- Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
- Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
- Negative boost same team RBs
- If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack
- If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
- If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
- Cumulative ownership under 250%
- Leave salary unspent
FD Values
- Mecole Hardman ($7500)
- Jerick McKinnon ($6500)
FD Leverage
- Dante Pettis ($8000)
- Evan Engram ($7000)
FD Build Ideas
- No K or TE at MVP
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
- If WR CPT, boost QB
- QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
- Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
- Don’t force the max salary
For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.