In Monday night’s Showdown, the struggling Seattle Seahawks visit the Washington Football Team. For a breakdown of this game, check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet.

This game is near a pick‘em with Seattle as a 1.5–point road favorite. After a dry run in the optimizer, this was looking like an incredibly even showdown for lineup construction. My initial thought is that 5–1 onslaughts will be under-used in such a closely-lined game.

Strategy

For this week, I don’t agree with these ETR roster construction projections, but I will still include them: lineups with four or five Seahawks our projected for nearly half at >37% for 4–2 builds and >10% for 5–1. In comparison, WFT heavy construction’s are only at <13% and <2% respectively. The 3–3 even build is expected to be most popular by less than 1% over the four Seahawks option. With the game being nearly a pick them, I can’t see the Seahawks builds being that much more popular.

There isn’t consensus on the most Rostered CPT, but it will likely be DK Metcalf or Russell Wilson between 13–16%, and there are differing projections on who will be most rostered in flex as well. Taylor Heinicke, Terry McLaurin, Tyler Lockett and Antionio Gibson could all exceed 10% CPT as well.

Metcalf should be the obvious choice for most of the field over like it, with a similar or higher projection at a nice discount in salary. This allows for some leverage if you’d like to take a stance on Lockett. It makes sense to negatively correlated to together, especially given Seattle’s recent offensive woes. I would prefer McLauren over both Seattle WRs, because he is the clear alpha in his offense and projects for similar rostership. I like a handful of medium cost players for this slate, such as Logan Thomas, Gerald Everett, DeeJay Dallas and J.D. McKissic. Each are a great choice to include in stacks with their QB CPT or as a value to help differentiate.

DK Values

  • Logan Thomas ($4800)
  • Jason Myers ($4000)

DK Leverage

  • Curtis Samuel $5000 – Overpriced right above the best value play (Thomas)
  • Cam Sims ($3800) – Very overpriced for his projection

DK Build Ideas

  • Max 1 DST, Max 1 K
  • Max 2 depth WR/TE/RB
  • Negative boost same team RBs
  • Negative boost Lockett/Metcalf together
  • If CPT QB, include one depth option in stack 
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • If CPT WR/TE boost team QB and force at least 1 QB (either team)
  • Cumulative ownership under 250%
  • Leave salary unspent 

FD Values

  • Gerald Everett ($7500)
  • Jason Myers ($9000)

FD Leverage

  • Anyone $8500 or lower, except Everett, has a terrible projection

FD Build Ideas

  • No K or TE at MVP
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Negative boost opposing QBs (Lineups with both only win 30%)
  • If WR CPT, boost QB
  • QB is overused but RB and WR are underutilized at MVP
  • Don’t stack 3 pass catchers from the same team
  • Don’t force the max salary

For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.