As we continue to lay the foundation for the fantasy football landscape for 2023, we are following up our look at league and team performance in the red zone last season, and spilling that over into individual player analysis.
In that top-down team post, we covered that the crux of touchdowns scored in the NFL come from inside of the red zone, and that not all red zone touches are created equal.
Just to reiterate some notes from that article:
- 74.6% of all touchdowns scored have come from inside of the red zone.
- 72.9% of all red zone touchdowns are scored from inside of the 10-yard line.
- 47.3% of all red zone touchdowns are scored from inside of the five-yard line.
- 86.7% of all rushing touchdowns and 66.8% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside of the red zone.
- 74.4% of all rushing touchdowns and 43.5% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside of the 10-yard line.
- 57.8% of all rushing touchdowns and 22.4% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside of the five-yard line.
- 31.3% of all red zone touchdowns are scored from the 1-2 yard lines.
- 23.1% of all NFL touchdowns are scored from the 1-2 yard lines.
- 43.8% of all rushing touchdowns and 11.8% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from the 1-2 yard lines.
Over the past decade, a carry from the one-yard line has been worth on average 3.3 fantasy points, but a carry from the 10-yard line dips to 0.77 fantasy points on average and down to 0.53 points from the 19-yard line.
With that, the next step is then diving into the red zone production versus an expectation for fantasy skill players based on their actual opportunities and where they came from in the red zone.
Today, we are looking at the quarterbacks.
We have already covered the running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.
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2022 QB Red Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation:
| wdt_ID | Quarterback | RZ FF Pts | Expected Pts | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | 180.7 | 151.5 | 29.2 |
| 2 | Justin Fields | 88.5 | 64.4 | 24.1 |
| 3 | Josh Allen | 143.5 | 119.7 | 23.9 |
| 4 | Dak Prescott | 79.8 | 58.1 | 21.7 |
| 5 | Daniel Jones | 96.9 | 75.7 | 21.2 |
| 6 | Tua Tagovailoa | 68.8 | 51.8 | 17.0 |
| 7 | Geno Smith | 87.9 | 71.5 | 16.5 |
| 8 | Joe Burrow | 139.9 | 123.7 | 16.2 |
| 9 | Sam Darnold | 41.3 | 31.1 | 10.1 |
| 10 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 65.9 | 56.0 | 10.0 |
| 11 | Trevor Lawrence | 113.7 | 105.4 | 8.3 |
| 12 | Jacoby Brissett | 61.3 | 55.4 | 5.9 |
| 13 | Sam Howell | 9.8 | 5.8 | 4.0 |
| 14 | Ryan Tannehill | 61.5 | 59.4 | 2.2 |
| 15 | Jalen Hurts | 118.7 | 116.8 | 1.9 |
| 16 | Kirk Cousins | 118.1 | 116.5 | 1.6 |
| 17 | Baker Mayfield | 36.1 | 36.2 | -0.1 |
| 18 | Jordan Love | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 19 | Lamar Jackson | 77.6 | 78.5 | -0.9 |
| 20 | Jared Goff | 99.3 | 100.6 | -1.3 |
| 21 | Russell Wilson | 53.1 | 54.4 | -1.3 |
| 22 | Kyler Murray | 61.3 | 62.7 | -1.4 |
| 23 | Trey Lance | 2.1 | 4.2 | -2.1 |
| 24 | Brock Purdy | 31.2 | 34.1 | -2.9 |
| 25 | P.J. Walker | 0.0 | 3.3 | -3.3 |
| 26 | Deshaun Watson | 28.7 | 33.6 | -4.9 |
| 27 | Tyler Huntley | 16.1 | 23.5 | -7.4 |
| 28 | Aaron Rodgers | 82.2 | 90.2 | -7.9 |
| 29 | Mac Jones | 41.3 | 53.2 | -11.9 |
| 30 | Matthew Stafford | 38.9 | 51.1 | -12.1 |
| 31 | Derek Carr | 47.5 | 61.6 | -14.1 |
| 32 | Desmond Ridder | 10.2 | 25.9 | -15.7 |
| 33 | Mike White | 10.3 | 27.7 | -17.4 |
| 34 | Kenny Pickett | 45.8 | 64.0 | -18.2 |
| 35 | Justin Herbert | 93.4 | 115.0 | -21.6 |
| Quarterback |
Overachievers:
No quarterback scored more actual points, had more points scored over expectation, and had more implied fantasy points in the red zone than Patrick Mahomes.
No team threw the ball more inside of the 10-yard line and inside of the five-yard line than the Chiefs last season and that played a dynamic part in Mahomes having a career year knocking on the doorstep of the end zone. If just sorting the table above from an expected points stance, you can see the edge Mahomes had over the field in terms of scoring opportunities.
Mahomes scored 129.7 fantasy points inside of the 10-yard line, the second-most for a quarterback ever behind only 2020 Aaron Rodgers (133.9 points). Mahomes led the NFL with 27 touchdown passes inside of the 10 (the next closest player had 19) and led the league with 17 of those scoring throws coming from inside of the five. For good measure, he also tacked on three rushing scores from inside of the 10.
Patrick Mahomes Career Production Inside of the 10-Yard Line:
| Year | Comp | Att | PaTD | RuTD | FF PTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 41 | 66 | 27 | 3 | 129.7 |
| 2021 | 29 | 43 | 21 | 1 | 88.8 |
| 2020 | 24 | 41 | 19 | 2 | 90.4 |
| 2019 | 11 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 24.3 |
| 2018 | 24 | 39 | 18 | 2 | 89.5 |
If Mahomes throws another 20 touchdowns inside of the 10 this season, he will be the first quarterback to toss 20 or more scores in that area of the field in three consecutive seasons.
We talked about how last season the Chiefs were forced to recalibrate their offense after the trade of Tyreek Hill. That led to Mahomes averaging a career-low 12.2 yards per touchdown pass.
He and the Kansas City offense were able to counter that by leading the NFL with 41 touchdown passes, but we also did highlight several instances where this offense should run into touchdown regression in 2023 based on their 2022 efficiency in terms of red zone output, converting yardage into touchdowns, and the rate of scoring plays that were touchdowns.
Mahomes has been a consistent performer over expectations in the red zone, but this was his highest season over expectations in the red zone as a whole since his rookie season. His career numbers have been +55.5 points scored, +4.9, +13.3, and +9.1 in that area before last season’s +29.2 points scored.
That does not mean we have to run and hide from an elite talent such as Mahomes and that he will not once again be strong in the context of the upcoming 2023 season like he has throughout his career, but as highlighted multiple times throughout that series, we have been here before with the 2018 Chiefs and had some immediate recoil.
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The next quarterback behind Mahomes in points over expectations in the red zone was Justin Fields.
Fields was the QB10 in red zone fantasy points while checking in as the QB13 in expected points scored on opportunities.
Now, you are probably assuming that Fields was here because of his historic season rushing, but believe it or not, Fields actually overachieved near the end zone because of how he maxed out the red zone passing attempts he had.
Fields led all quarterbacks with a touchdown pass on 37.5% (12-of-32) of his red zone pass attempts and did so with only four of those touchdown passes coming from inside of the 10-yard line, the same number as Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush, and Teddy Bridgewater. Fields threw the same number of passes inside of the 10-yard line (11) as Desmond Ridder.
Fields had a touchdown rate of 36.4% on throws 10-19 yards away from the paint, which led the league. The league average was 14.7%. His averaged length of red zone touchdown pass was 11.9 yards, the highest in the league.
Fields had 70% (7-of-10) of his red zone pass attempts that went into the end zone be caught for scores, which led the NFL. The league rate was 35.3%.
While we do not have many passing metrics in which Fields was above the fold, we should expect there to be some regression in his efficiency in this area, needing more passing volume near the actual end zone in 2023.
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Brian Daboll did plenty of maneuvering and coaxing out everything he could from a limited Giants offense in 2022, which included maxing out what Daniel Jones was able to provide in the red zone.
Daniel Jones Career Red Zone Production:
| Year | Red Zone Pts | Expected Points | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 96.9 | 75.7 | 21.2 |
| 2021 | 39.6 | 57.4 | -17.8 |
| 2020 | 32.4 | 55.8 | -23.4 |
| 2019 | 70.6 | 62.7 | 7.9 |
After scoring 72.0 total fantasy points in the red zone over the 2020-2021 seasons, Jones was eighth among all quarterbacks in red zone points last year.
Daboll finally used Jones as a runner near the end zone, something we had been clamoring for and something Daboll did with Josh Allen in Buffalo.
Jones rushed 13 times inside of the 10-yard line after nine total attempts inside of the 10 over his first three seasons in the league. Seven of those attempts came inside of the five-yard line after Jones had just three total rushing attempts inside of the five over his first three seasons.
Not only did Jones get a boost through rushing output near the end zone, but he also ran above expectation on the limited pass attempts he had in that area of the field, which played into how the Giants had such a lofty touchdown conversion rate in the red zone last season.
Jones only threw 11 total passes into the end zone last season. That was 31st in the league while only 2.3% of his overall pass attempts were thrown into the end zone, the lowest rate in the NFL. But seven of those 11 attempts were touchdowns. The league rate of conversion on those throws was 37.1%.
Jones only threw 20 passes inside of the 10-yard line last season, but 55.0% went for touchdowns. The league base rate was 35.7%.
Like Fields, we should anticipate a volume increase for Jones near the end zone, which will be required if expecting regression in touchdown efficiency on throws in the red zone.
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In that top-down look at red zone production on a team-by-team level, we highlighted that the Cowboys led the league in red zone conversation rate with one of the highest rates of the 2000s.
With that, it is not surprising to see Dak Prescott reside highly among those who outproduced expectations near the end zone.
Prescott posted a career-high 32.7% touchdown rate in the red zone last season after a 24.2% rate before the 2022 season. Like Fields, Prescott did so on the intermediate levels, finishing second in touchdown rate (29.2%) on throws 10-19 yards from the end zone.
No player has been as consistently above par inside of the red zone for fantasy as Josh Allen has been.
Josh Allen Career Red Zone Production:
| Year | Pts. Scored | Expected | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 143.5 | 119.7 | 23.8 |
| 2021 | 173.9 | 158.9 | 15.0 |
| 2020 | 168.7 | 130.9 | 37.8 |
| 2019 | 115.1 | 76.9 | 38.2 |
| 2018 | 68.8 | 50.9 | 17.9 |
Allen was once again second in fantasy points inside of the red zone and third in expected points. Allen has now finished second, first, second, and fifth in fantasy red zone production the past four seasons, the only player in the top five in each of those years regardless of position.
Allen was once again above the league averages in touchdown rates as a passer inside of the red zone (29.6%) and inside of the 10-yard line (38.2%). He also proved to be the best dual-threat player in the league in the red zone again, tied for second among quarterbacks in rushing attempts inside of the 10 (15) and second in attempts inside of the five-yard line (11) at the position.
In the Middle:
Jalen Hurts was not an outlier in outproducing his expectations (QB4) despite leading all quarterbacks in rushing attempts from the one-yard line (eight) and rushing attempts inside of the five-yard line (20).
Hurts led all quarterbacks with 36.5 fantasy points from the one-yard line, the most fantasy points scored from an individual yard line in the red zone for any quarterback.
His rushing usage near the end zone balanced out his lack of passing volume. Not only was Hurts 17th in red zone pass attempts (48), 19th in attempts inside of the 10 (20), and 24th in attempts inside of the five (six), but he also was below the league averages in touchdown rate per attempt in all three areas.
Only Matthew Stafford (17.5%), Russell Wilson (15.6%), and Kenny Pickett (10.9%) had a lower touchdown rate than Hurts (18.8%) as a passer in the red zone.
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Jared Goff is interesting because he did not exceed overall expectations (he was the QB7 in red zone points and was the QB8 in expected points) but had varying levels of where he ran hot and cold.
Only Patrick Mahomes threw more touchdowns inside of the 10-yard line and inside of the five-yard line than Goff did in 2022. And that was on a team that was 25th in dropback rate inside of the 10 and had a league-high 11 rushing touchdowns from the one-yard line.
Despite that, Goff threw 14 passing touchdowns inside of the five-yard line and had a 66.7% touchdown rate inside of the five. The league rate was 42.8%. Goff’s average length of touchdown passes in the red zone was 4.6 yards, ahead of only Mac Jones (4.0).
But whereas Goff ran hot near the end zone on his pass attempts, he was well below the fold as we moved away, which is why things balanced out.
Goff only had a 5.8% touchdown rate on throws 10-19 yards away from the paint (28th in the league) compared to the 14.7% base rate for the league as a whole.
The Lions are a team that is a sound bet to have a higher passing touchdown split in 2023 compared to a year ago, but they also are a team that is a good bet to score fewer overall touchdowns this season, which makes Goff an interesting play.
But if Detroit has fewer scoring opportunities right outside of the end zone and Goff remains as dependent on those touchdowns this is one avenue for how this offense with immense expectations ends up failing.
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Underachievers:
No other quarterback fell below expectations last than Justin Herbert on multiple levels, but especially near the end zone.
Herbert had the worst differential among passers in actual points scored versus implied output.
He was still the QB9 in red zone points scored but was the QB6 in expected points.
After throwing a touchdown on 28.2% and 26.9% of his red zone passes over his first two years in the league, Herbert had a red zone touchdown rate of 20.4% last season. The league rate was 23.8%.
Herbert also had a massive decline due to rushing output. After rushing the ball 20 and 22 times in the red zone over his first two years, he totaled just six rushing attempts in the red zone last season. There is a strong chance that his lack of rushing output as a whole was due to an early-season chest injury.
Inside of the 10 is where things completely fell apart for Herbert compared to previous seasons. Herbert was an underperformer inside of the 10 in 2021 as well, just not to the levels of last season.
Justin Herbert Career Production Inside of the 10-Yard Line:
| Year | Att | TD | TD% | RuAtt | Pts | Expected | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 45 | 11 | 24.44% | 3 | 44.6 | 75.5 | -30.9 |
| 2021 | 49 | 16 | 32.65% | 12 | 85.0 | 93.3 | -8.3 |
| 2020 | 25 | 11 | 44.00% | 12 | 77.4 | 63.5 | 13.9 |
The only quarterbacks with a lower touchdown rate inside of the 10-yard line than Herbert last season were Russell Wilson (21.7%), Matthew Stafford (21.7%), and Kenny Pickett (11.8%).
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Herbert was the only quarterback further below red zone expectations than Kenny Pickett during his rookie season.
You do not have a 1.8% touchdown rate without underachieving near the end zone.
Pickett was dead last in the NFL in completing just 39.1% (18-of-46) of his red zone passes.
Out of the 33 passers that qualified for the league passer rating, Pickett was dead last in touchdown rate inside of the red zone (10.9% versus a 23.8% league rate), inside of the 10 (11.8% compared to a 35.7% league rate) and inside of the five (zero touchdowns on seven attempts).
Pickett threw nine passes inside of the 10-yard line into the end zone and only one was a touchdown, the lowest rate (11.1%) in the league compared to a 38.8% conversion rate on those throws across the league.
We had a very small sample of Desmond Ridder as a rookie, but he also struggled near the end zone as a rookie. Ridder only produced 39.3% of his implied production based on his opportunity in the red zone.
Ridder completed just 3-of-11 passes inside of the 10-yard line, tied with Deshaun Watson for the lowest rate in the league. Only Pickett in a much larger sample had a lower touchdown rate than Ridder’s 18.2% rate inside of the 10.
There is a lot more of a sample to build out for both Pickett and Ridder as they look to improve in year two.
Both players are hoping that natural regression to the league rates carries them, but not every quarterback gets there.
One player that has consistently underperformed in the red zone since I have been doing this article is Derek Carr.
Derek Carr Red Zone Production Since 2018:
| Year | Pts. Scored | Expected | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 47.5 | 61.6 | -14.1 |
| 2021 | 75.6 | 85.2 | -9.6 |
| 2020 | 88.9 | 103.3 | -14.4 |
| 2019 | 80.3 | 83.2 | -2.9 |
| 2018 | 65.9 | 76.4 | -10.5 |
Carr has failed to match his expected red zone output in each of the past five seasons.
2022 was once again another struggle for Carr as he went 10-of-29 passing inside of the 10-yard line. No player with more than 20 pass attempts inside of the 10 completed a lower rate of passes than Carr.
Over the past five years, 42 quarterbacks qualify for the league passer rating.
Carr’s 21.1% touchdown rate inside of the 10 ranks 36th among those passers while his 29.5% touchdown rate inside of the 10 ranks 40th.
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One player that we may be undervaluing bouncing back this season is Matthew Stafford.
Stafford dealt with injury and offensive line issues that cratered his 2022 season, in a year where he had highlighted that the passing game was already due to significant regression compared to their 2021 output through the air when Stafford threw a career-high 32 red zone passing touchdowns.
That regression pendulum moved swiftly as Stafford had a 17.5% red zone touchdown rate. That rate was not only 31st in the NFL but the lowest of Stafford’s entire career. His career rate prior was 24.7%.
Inside the 10-yard line. Stafford posted a 21.7% touchdown rate (32nd) compared to a 39.1% career rate.
Russell Wilson had a similar path through the air, even if his overall output was closer to expectations due to his rushing output near the end zone.
In his first year outside of Seattle, Wilson posted a career-low 15.6% touchdown rate, nearly half of his career 30.5% rate entering last season.
Inside the 10-yard line, Wilson had just a 21.7% touchdown rate, matching that of Stafford and ahead of only Kenny Pickett. It was the first time that Wilson had a touchdown rate below 40% inside of the 10 since 2016 as he had a career rate of 41.7% entering the season.
Father Time is undefeated and both Stafford and Wilson may be at a point of no return, but neither are costly in fantasy drafts and have a full-career sample showcasing that each are much better players than what they produced a year ago.
Quick Hits:
- Geno Smith and Trevor Lawrence (40 each) were tied for the league lead in red zone pass attempts that were actually into the end zone.
- Lamar Jackson (8.6%) had the highest rate of pass attempts into the end zone.
- No quarterback had a lower rate of end zone passes caught for touchdowns than Deshaun Watson at 9.1% (1-of-11).
- Brock Purdy (6-of-8) had the highest rate of end zone throws being caught for touchdowns.
- Davis Mills had the worst inaccuracy rating on red zone passes (24.1%) in 2022 per TruMedia.
- Tua Tagovailoa was credited with a 0.0% inaccuracy rating per TruMedia on 21 red zone passes that went into the end zone, the best rate in the league.
- Mac Jones had the lowest average yards per touchdown pass in the red zone at 4.0 yards.