As we continue to lay the foundation for the fantasy football landscape for 2023 we are following up our look at league and team performance in the red zone last season, and spilling that over into individual player analysis.
In that top-down team post, we covered that the crux of touchdowns scored in the NFL come from inside of the red zone and that not all red zone touches are created equal.
We have already covered the quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends.
Today, we are highlighting the wide receiver position.
Just to reiterate some notes from that article that pertain to pass catchers since 2010:
- 66.8% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside of the red zone.
- 43.5% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside of the 10-yard line.
- 22.4% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from inside of the five-yard line.
- 11.8% of all passing touchdowns scored overall come from the 1-2 yard lines.
If one position can score more regularly from outside of the red zone, it is a wide receiver.
Even though two-thirds of the leaguewide passing touchdowns still come from inside of the red zone, wideouts are the position scoring from long-range at the highest rate.
In 2022, 37.9% of receiving touchdowns from wideouts came from outside of the red zone compared to 20.2% rates for tight ends and 20.6% rate for running backs.
Of course, that means that 62% of all wide receiver touchdown grabs still came from inside of the red zone, but we do not have to rely on the red zone as heavily with wideouts reaching the paint as much as the other positions.
Inside the red zone, all targets are not created equally. It is no secret that the closer you are to the end zone, the more fantasy weight a target has.
A target from the one-yard line is worth 1.8 times more than a target from the 10-yard line and 2.2 times more than a target from the 19-yard line.
2022 WR Red Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation:
| wdt_ID | Wide Receiver | RZ FF Pts | EXPECTED PTS | DIFFERENCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahan Dotson | 41.5 | 17.4 | 24.1 |
| 2 | Brandon Aiyuk | 53.5 | 33.1 | 20.4 |
| 3 | Richie James | 36.5 | 16.9 | 19.6 |
| 4 | Isaiah Hodgins | 33.5 | 15.3 | 18.2 |
| 5 | DeVonta Smith | 43.4 | 26.2 | 17.2 |
| 6 | Mecole Hardman | 43.5 | 26.5 | 17.0 |
| 7 | Mike Williams | 41.3 | 25.5 | 15.8 |
| 8 | Michael Thomas | 22.9 | 8.2 | 14.7 |
| 9 | Kadarius Toney | 28.3 | 13.6 | 14.7 |
| 10 | K.J. Osborn | 35.9 | 22.8 | 13.1 |
| 11 | Romeo Doubs | 29.5 | 16.4 | 13.1 |
| 12 | Jaylen Waddle | 31.6 | 18.6 | 13.0 |
| 13 | Christian Watson | 44.9 | 32.0 | 12.9 |
| 14 | Christian Kirk | 63.7 | 51.9 | 11.8 |
| 15 | Jerry Jeudy | 33.9 | 23.1 | 10.8 |
| 16 | Tee Higgins | 33.1 | 22.5 | 10.6 |
| 17 | Amari Cooper | 47.4 | 37.9 | 9.5 |
| 18 | Cooper Kupp | 37.6 | 28.2 | 9.4 |
| 19 | Terry McLaurin | 32.9 | 23.7 | 9.2 |
| 20 | Tyquan Thornton | 24.5 | 16.2 | 8.3 |
| 21 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 60.0 | 51.7 | 8.3 |
| 22 | Brandin Cooks | 30.4 | 22.2 | 8.2 |
| 23 | Hunter Renfrow | 18.4 | 10.6 | 7.8 |
| 24 | D.J. Moore | 32.7 | 25.3 | 7.4 |
| 25 | Darnell Mooney | 22.3 | 14.9 | 7.4 |
| Wide Receiver |
Last year was a historically down year for passing touchdown performance and we can see that drop-off in the lack of major outliers in scoring above expectations.
In 2021, we had nine different wideouts score 20-plus points above red zone expectations, and two even score 30-plus points over expectations.
Eight of those nine wide receivers came back last season and scored fewer touchdowns, with the lone exception being Davante Adams. The ironic part about that is that even though Adams led the NFL in receiving scores, he was well below expectations in the red zone performance as you can spotlight above.
Overachievers:
Last season, we had just two wideouts score more than 20 points over expectations in the red zone.
Jahan Dotson was the WR13 in red zone points scores but WR57 on the list above in expected points. He had seven touchdowns as a rookie, but just three came inside of the 10-yard line.
Dotson only had seven total red zone targets, converting five of them (71.4%) for touchdowns. The base rate for the league in converting those targets was 24.5%.
He had just three targets inside of the 10-yard line (all three were touchdowns) while he converted six (75%) of his eight end zone targets last season. The league rate was 37.1%.
The good news for Dotson is he became more of a target earner as the season progressed, which is what we will need to spill over into year two to combat any scoring regression. Over his final five games of the season, Dotson was targeted 22.2% of his routes (24th among wide receivers).
Brandon Aiyuk was not as far down in expected points as Dotson, but he did run hot on his opportunities. Aiyuk was the WR6 in points scored in the red zone last season compared to checking in as the WR23 in expected points near the end zone.
Inside of the 10, Aiyuk only had four targets, but three of them went for scores. He had just three total end zone targets (the same amount as River Cracraft) securing two of them for touchdowns.
I am all about Aiyuk as an overall talent and his draft cost is more than palatable for his displayed talent early in his career, but this is another example of how frustrating this San Francisco passing game can be from a volume standpoint. It is an offense that breeds efficiency, but it would be great for us as gamers if we did not have to rely on it for players we wish had more overall opportunity.
There was quite a gap in performance near the end zone for the primary Philadelphia pass catchers.
DeVonta Smith closed the season as the WR12 in red zone points despite being the WR35 in expected points. Smith was the WR5 in points scored over expectations in the red zone.
A.J. Brown was more stable. He was behind Smith as the WR15 in red zone points but was well above Smith in opportunity as the WR14 in expected points.
Smith only had four targets inside of the 10-yard line (three for scores) compared to eight targets for Brown (two for scores).
Each had six red zone targets in the end zone, with Smith securing three of them to Brown’s two.
Looking at the remainder of the wideouts that ran hot on their targets above expectations, we have a lot of lower-end options left over. No one is buying in on Isaiah Hodgins, Richie James, or Mecole Hardman with tangible draft capital.
Mike Williams is the last notable name that was on the lucky side of things, which is kind of surprising since Justin Herbert was collectively the worst quarterback below red zone expectations in our opening post.
Williams had 13 red zone targets, but not a single one of them was inside of the 10-yard line. I looked it up several times even after typing it out and it is still true.
The Chargers had 42 team targets inside of the 10-yard line last season and zero of them went to Williams. Tre’ McKitty had four. Zander Horvath even had two targets inside of the 10 last year.
Williams did have five red zone targets that came in the actual end zone (three for scores), but even that was the same total as Gerald Everett.
While Williams exceeded his output near the end zone last season, I have to believe that he draws at least one target inside of the 10 this season.
Underachievers:
The underachievers from last season are a lot more interesting for fantasy than the top.
If you look solely at points scored below expectations, we are littered with names that we care about.
You did not need a crystal ball to know that Diontae Johnson would be the poster boy this season in this department after he set the record for most targets in a season without a touchdown last year.
Johnson was the WR17 in expected points in the red zone above but ended the year as the WR67 in actual points scored there.
Johnson has been below the fold for his career in turning targets into touchdowns, but you do not have to be much of a gambler to say he will find the end zone this season. He led the team with 11 end zone targets.
The more we uncover about Garrett Wilson, the more we find out about how special his rookie season was in the context of his environment.
Johnson was the only wide receiver below Wilson in the point differential in the red zone.
Wilson had 19 red zone targets, but 31.6% of them were deemed inaccurate by the quarterback per TruMedia. Only Marquise Brown (40.0%), and Drake London (37.5%) had higher rates of inaccurate targets in the red zone.
Wilson had 11 end zone targets in the red zone (sixth among all wide receivers) but just two went for touchdowns as 36.4% of those targets were deemed inaccurate through the quarterback. The league rate was 18.8%.
The addition of Aaron Rodgers is already being priced into Wilson this summer, but there are plenty of indicators that he is a special talent to warrant his spike in cost.
Touching on Drake London just for a moment, it is also a testament to his talent that he was able to finish so closely to expectations despite also receiving bottom-run quarterback play.
As mentioned above, London had the second-highest rate of red zone targets deemed inaccurate by the quarterback. 50% of his end zone targets (5-of-10) were inaccurate as well when the league rate was 18.8%.
Both Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder each sported a 33.3% inaccuracy rate on red zone throws into the end zone. There were 47 quarterbacks to throw 100 or more passes last season and those rates ranked tied for 43rd among those passers.
The bummer for London is that his situation has not changed in the direction like with Wilson, leaving us with more projections based on Ridder making significant strides in year two.
It is a testament to the skill of Davante Adams that he still led the NFL in receiving touchdowns despite finishing third from the bottom here in points below expectations in the red zone.
Adams was the WR4 in expected red zone points but was the WR18 in actual points scored.
Adams was able to make up ground by having a career year from outside of the red zone. He had 10 touchdown receptions from 25 yards out or further, the most in a season in the 2000s.
But inside of the red zone, Adams converted just 18.2% (4-of-22) of his red zone targets for scores after a career rate of 35.0%.
Adams converted 33.3% of his targets inside of the 10-yard line after a career rate of 53.7% and 37.5% of his red zone targets after a career rate of 44.2%.
We have a strong body of work from Adams as standalone talent. We should have recoil on this dependency of long touchdowns, but improved efficiency near the end zone.
I know people get sick of the word regression in the fantasy football space, but DK Metcalf’s 2022 season is another example of how swiftly and wildly the regression pendulum can swing.
In 2021, Metcalf was the top receiver in points scored over expectations in the red zone (+36.6) and then was 76th on the list above last season.
Metcalf was second among all wideouts in expected points scored in the red zone but was the WR10 actual points scored.
Only Travis Kelce (30) and Justin Jefferson (28) had more red zone targets than Metcalf’s 27, but just five of them were touchdowns (18.5%) after a career conversion of rate of 34.6%.
Metcalf converted just 30% (3-of-10) of his targets inside of the 10-yard line after a previous rate of 42.1%.
Even more unlucky, Metcalf led the NFL with 22 end zone targets in the red zone. The next closest player had 14. But just five were scores (22.7%) after posting conversion rates of 33.3%, 42.9%, and 46.7% on his end zone targets before last season.
We will have to see where the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba fits into the equation of this offense, but Metcalf had the best full-field usage of his career last season and poor touchdown luck was the only thing that prevented a monster season from him.
We opened this series by highlighting that Russell Wilson had one of the worst seasons of his career near the end zone.
On the surface, it appears that Courtland Sutton was the player who caught the brunt of that, but this has become ongoing for Sutton over his career and he may have played a part in the decline of Wilson.
Courtland Sutton Career Red Zone Output:
| Year | RZ Tgt | TD | RZ Pts. | Expected | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | 1 | 13.0 | 30.8 | -17.8 |
| 2021 | 10 | 1 | 15.4 | 23.9 | -8.5 |
| 2019 | 19 | 3 | 34.0 | 46.3 | -12.3 |
| 2018 | 8 | 2 | 16.7 | 21.8 | -5.1 |
This is similar to the consistent underperformance we showed with Derek Carr in the quarterback outlook.
There is some chicken or the egg in play since Sutton profiles as a wide receiver that should excel near the end zone and the overall quarterback play in Denver has yet to be resolved, but Sutton’s career lack of production in the red zone is not doing him any favors.
For his career now, Sutton has converted 7-of-49 red zone targets for touchdowns, 5-of-22 targets inside of the 10-yard line, and 11-of-44 end zone targets. The base success rates for the league on those targets are 24.2% in the red zone, 37.2% inside of the 10, and 38.1% in the end zone.
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