As we push into July and further downhill toward the 2023 fantasy season, we are extending our top-down approach that began with a look at the state of leaguewide production and usage at each skill position for fantasy by looking at team performance and output.
The goal is that by late August we have covered all corners of the fantasy earth from a team, player, position, and game theory stance to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for this upcoming season.
We opened things up with a look at how the league and teams performed on a per-possession basis a year ago.
Now we are digging into how good teams were at converting yardage into touchdowns.
Highlights:
- Since 2010, 73.1% of the teams that scored fewer touchdowns than their expected total based on yardage gained per league rates came back the following season and scored more offensive touchdowns.
- Eight teams had a decrease of double-digit touchdowns last season compared to the year prior. All eight of those teams were above the expected output in 2021.
- There have been 22 other teams since 2010 to outproduce their implied touchdown totals by double digits. Just four of those 22 teams came back the following year and matched their total touchdown output.
League Offensive Yardage Into Touchdown Conversion Since 2010:
| Year | Yards/TD | R²/Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 149.0 | 0.7249 |
| 2021 | 139.0 | 0.7675 |
| 2020 | 131.0 | 0.6903 |
| 2019 | 143.2 | 0.7148 |
| 2018 | 140.2 | 0.6942 |
| 2017 | 152.6 | 0.5598 |
| 2016 | 146.0 | 0.6960 |
| 2015 | 149.6 | 0.4296 |
| 2014 | 150.2 | 0.7820 |
| 2013 | 147.0 | 0.6947 |
| 2012 | 153.6 | 0.7027 |
| 2011 | 155.2 | 0.7973 |
| 2010 | 149.6 | 0.7624 |
It is inherently known that if you gain a lot of yards you are going to have the opportunity to score more touchdowns, but we want to put actual numbers and correlation between the two.
When factoring in the totality of the sample above, roughly 72% of all NFL touchdowns scored on offense can be explained by yardage gained.
Even in a down-scoring season in 2022 in which NFL offenses averaged the most yards per offensive touchdown since the 2017 season, that remained the case. The correlation between the two had its second-highest R-squared of the past eight seasons, just behind the 2021 campaign.
Top-down Regression
Since 2010, 73.1% of the teams that scored fewer touchdowns than their expected total based on yardage gained per league rates came back the following season and scored more offensive touchdowns. On average, those teams scored 10.2 more touchdowns the next season.
If looking for offenses that make the largest leaps in a given season, they of course almost come from the bottom of the league the season prior, which makes sense since if you scored a lot of touchdowns the season prior you have smaller margins to improve a ton.
Of the 76 teams since 2010 to improve their touchdown total by double-digits or more the following season, 60 (78.9%) were teams that were below touchdown expectations the year prior.
But that can also be valuable to us since we tend to outweigh previous production into current draft positions. Especially in the assumption of what teams we believe our good and bad, which has a ton of fluidity year-over-year.
On the other side of the coin, 72.2% of the teams that out-produced their expected touchdown total based on yardage gained returned to the following season and scored fewer touchdowns, with an average loss of 10.0 touchdowns per season among those teams.
Looking at 2022 in relation to those bulk numbers, we had 18 teams fall below their expected touchdown output in 2021. 13 of those teams scored more touchdowns this past season, even in a recession year for offenses.
The Lions (+17 touchdowns), Jaguars (+16), Giants (+15), and Eagles (+12) were the teams that improved their touchdown totals by double-digits compared to the previous season.
All four of those teams were below touchdown expectations in 2021. The Eagles ranked 16th, the Lions 20th, the Giants 31st, and the Jaguars 32nd in the league in 2021.
Eight teams had a decrease of double-digit touchdowns last season compared to the year prior. All eight of those teams were above the expected output in 2021.
The biggest losers were the Buccaneers, who scored a whopping 30 fewer touchdowns last season compared to 2021, when they were the top team in touchdowns scored over expectations (+8.3) that year. That was the largest year-over-year touchdown dropoff for any team in the NFL since 2010.
The other major losers were the Colts (-24), Rams (-20), Cardinals (-18), Patriots (-17), Chargers (-15), and the Packers and Titans (-13 each). All of those teams except the Cardinals and Titans were in the top 10 in touchdowns scored over expectations in 2011, and those teams were 11th and 14th.
2022 Expected TD Output Per Yardage:
| wdt_ID | Team | Total yards | Off TD | Yards/TD | ExpectedTD | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 5,499 | 32 | 171.8 | 37 | -4.9 |
| 2 | ATL | 5,417 | 34 | 159.3 | 36 | -2.4 |
| 3 | BAL | 5,760 | 33 | 174.5 | 39 | -5.7 |
| 4 | BUF | 6,361 | 50 | 127.2 | 43 | 7.3 |
| 5 | CAR | 5,206 | 32 | 162.7 | 35 | -2.9 |
| 6 | CHI | 5,233 | 37 | 141.4 | 35 | 1.9 |
| 7 | CIN | 5,768 | 49 | 117.7 | 39 | 10.3 |
| 8 | CLE | 5,934 | 38 | 156.2 | 40 | -1.8 |
| 9 | DAL | 6,034 | 52 | 116.0 | 40 | 11.5 |
| 10 | DEN | 5,527 | 29 | 190.6 | 37 | -8.1 |
| 11 | DET | 6,460 | 52 | 124.2 | 43 | 8.6 |
| 12 | GB | 5,745 | 39 | 147.3 | 39 | 0.4 |
| 13 | HOU | 4,820 | 27 | 178.5 | 32 | -5.3 |
| 14 | IND | 5,298 | 25 | 211.9 | 36 | -10.6 |
| 15 | JAX | 6,075 | 41 | 148.2 | 41 | 0.2 |
| 16 | KC | 7,032 | 59 | 119.2 | 47 | 11.8 |
| 17 | LAC | 6,108 | 41 | 149.0 | 41 | 0.0 |
| 18 | LAR | 4,769 | 31 | 153.8 | 32 | -1.0 |
| 19 | LV | 5,993 | 40 | 149.8 | 40 | -0.2 |
| 20 | MIA | 6,197 | 42 | 147.5 | 42 | 0.4 |
| 21 | MIN | 6,145 | 48 | 128.0 | 41 | 6.8 |
| 22 | NE | 5,348 | 31 | 172.5 | 36 | -4.9 |
| 23 | NO | 5,674 | 36 | 157.6 | 38 | -2.1 |
| 24 | NYG | 5,676 | 38 | 149.4 | 38 | -0.1 |
| 25 | NYJ | 5,409 | 28 | 193.2 | 36 | -8.3 |
| 26 | PHI | 6,614 | 57 | 116.0 | 44 | 12.6 |
| 27 | PIT | 5,484 | 28 | 195.9 | 37 | -8.8 |
| 28 | SEA | 5,976 | 42 | 142.3 | 40 | 1.9 |
| 29 | SF | 6,216 | 50 | 124.3 | 42 | 8.3 |
| 30 | TB | 5,894 | 31 | 190.1 | 40 | -8.6 |
| 31 | TEN | 5,045 | 32 | 157.7 | 34 | -1.9 |
| 32 | WAS | 5,615 | 33 | 170.2 | 38 | -4.7 |
Touchdown Regression Candidates
Last season, we had four teams score 10 or more touchdowns over expectations based on their yardage output: the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Bengals.
Both the Eagles and Chiefs (and the Cowboys and Bengals for that matter) are expected to be elite again in 2023, but even if they are near the top of the league again, this is the second consecutive article looking back at last season that suggests both of those teams should experience touchdown regression.
There have been 22 other teams since 2010 to outproduce their implied touchdown totals by double digits. Just four of those 22 teams came back the following year and matched their total touchdown output.
Of the 18 teams that had a decline, all of them scored at least seven fewer touchdowns the following season with an average loss of -15.0 touchdowns among those teams.
This current version of the Chiefs has been the most consistently good offense in the NFL under Patrick Mahomes, but even they are a part of this sample.
In 2018, the Chiefs scored 17.4 more touchdowns than their implied output. They still were sixth in the NFL in touchdowns scored following that up in 2019, but they also scored 20 fewer touchdowns that season.
The Bengals were seventh in the league in offensive touchdowns but were 15th in total yardage. Only the Eagles and Cowboys needed fewer yards per offensive touchdown last season. Cincinnati was +5.1 touchdowns scored over expectation in 2021, so we should be stocking some elevation for Joe Burrow’s impact.
The Cowboys are interesting because while Dak Prescott had the highest interception rate of his career by far, Dallas also had their most efficient season in producing touchdowns with him as their primary quarterback.
Over Prescott’s career, the Cowboys previously had scored +7.7, +5.2, -4.2, -0.2, -6.4, and +2.2 touchdowns versus expectations.
As good as we believe all four of those teams are heading into 2023 and even if they are near the top of the league leaders in touchdowns scored in 2023, we should anticipate all of them to score fewer touchdowns this season.
The Lions, 49ers, Bills, and Vikings all scored 6.0 touchdowns or more than yardage expectations, making up the remainder of offenses that excelled above the base rate of 2022 output.
We have had 34 other teams in the sample score 6.0 or more touchdowns over expectations but not reach double digits. 28 of those teams scored fewer touchdowns the following season with an average loss of 10.0 touchdowns scored.
This is the first bit of cold water to throw on the Lions coming into this year.
The interesting thing about the 49ers is that last season was one of the few years where they outkicked their touchdown expectations under Kyle Shanahan.
Since he became the coach in 2017, the 49ers had scored -6.6, -8.1, +8.4, -1.2, and -0.8 touchdowns compared to their implied yardage output before last season’s spike.
We do not have much of a sample of Kevin O’Connell, but given how the Vikings relied on a plethora of late-game offensive rallies and unique game scripts, I do not believe anyone would blink if they had a dip in touchdown performance this season.
Minnesota averaged 146.5 yards per offensive touchdown in the first three quarters of games of last season and just 92.3 yards per touchdown in the fourth quarter, in which they led the NFL with 19 touchdowns.
If looking at these teams regressing this season, one team that has been steady in this regard of regularly beating that trend is the Bills.
Buffalo has scored +7.6, +6.4, and +7.3 more touchdowns than expected over the past three seasons. The only other teams to have three straight seasons scoring six or more touchdowns over expectations since 2010 have been the Peyton Manning Broncos (2012-2014), the Saints (2018-2020), and the Patriots (twice over 2010-2012 and 2014-2017).
The Mahomes-led Chiefs have not even done it. That latter New England team is the only team to achieve that arbitrary output over expectation in four straight seasons.
Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates
We had 18 teams finish below leaguewide touchdown expectations.
The Colts showed up in our post yesterday as a negative outlier and here they are again today. A year after finishing seventh in the league in touchdowns scored over expectation in 2021, no team was as poor as the Colts in producing touchdowns last year. The team scored 24 fewer touchdowns than they scored in 2021.
They were the only team in the league last season that needed over 200 yards of offense per touchdown scored. Since 2010, there have been just 13 other teams that needed more yardage per offensive touchdown than the 2022 Colts. 12 of those teams scored more touchdowns the following season.
Indianapolis was the only team to score fewer touchdowns than implied in the double digits last season, which is not something that occurs regularly.
Since 2010, there have been just 18 other teams that have underperformed their implied touchdown totals by double digits. 14 of those teams increased their touchdown totals the following season with an average increase of 12.0 more touchdowns among those teams.
Following suit with yesterday’s post. While remaining bearish on rookie quarterbacks, the Colts are just an objectively solid blind bet to better this season. Even if they outright fail big picture, they should fall forward.
A year ago, the Ravens, Raiders, Jaguars, and Giants were in that very same bucket. Only the Ravens scored fewer touchdowns while the Jaguars and Giants made two of the largest jumps in touchdown output last season.
A quick note on the Jaguars and Giants. Although both teams were among the largest rises in touchdown output in 2022 compared to 2021, neither were outliers in outproducing their implied touchdowns, which gives them much more stability heading into 2023.
We had another four teams (the Broncos, Jets, Buccaneers, and Steelers) finish at least 8.0 touchdowns below expectations last year.
You may have guessed already, but we will put the numbers out there anyways. These teams are solid bets to rebound toward the mean in 2023.
Since 2010 there have been 18 other teams in this same group that just fall short of underperforming expected touchdowns by double digits. 17 of those teams scored more touchdowns the following season with an average increase of 8.0 touchdowns.
It is pretty easy to make cases for the Broncos and Jets given the changes made in Denver up top with Sean Payton and New York replacing their carousel of vagabond passers with Aaron Rodgers.
The Steelers have already received some groundswell in being a public favorite for improvement, but the Buccaneers downright take blind faith to support.
The good news is that nearly every Buccaneer is discounted in fantasy because of it. I have compared the Tampa Bay situation to the one in Seattle a year ago.
While still not anticipating either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask to have a Geno Smith-esque season in their range of outcomes, I do believe the public is underestimating the Bucs because of how bad they already were in 2021. Our rankings here reflect that as I am above the ADPs on all of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rachaad White.
Even extending those thoughts out to players on the Texans, Patriots, Cardinals, and Commanders. All of those teams were significantly below their implied touchdown output and have that reflected in the draft cost of players on those rosters this summer.
The Ravens are also in that group, but they are approached with more optimism due to the changes they’ve made on offense and the hope that they have a healthy Lamar Jackson.
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