As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Jordan Love, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, and every other notable Packer, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Green Bay leaned more into the run in 2022 – 50.9% neutral pass rate – and that trend could continue with Jordan Love at quarterback. They also have been one of the slowest offenses in the league, finishing 28th, 31st, and 32nd in situation-neutral pace according to Football Outsiders. It is unlikely they speed things up with an inexperienced quarterback.
- Christian Watson has a profile that can hit even if the Packers struggle on offense. He is a good bet to see over 20% of Green Bay’s targets, has big-play upside (25.8% of his targets were 20 air yards or more last season), and Love has the arm to connect on those deep targets.
- The offensive environment is a concern for everyone, but Aaron Jones remains one of the most efficient backs in the league. He was second among qualifying running backs in yards per carry (5.3), fourth in yards per touch (5.6), fourth in EPA per rush (0.03), 11th in rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.69), and ninth in yards per route run (1.25).
2022 Packers Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 370 (14th)
- Total Offense: 5,745 (17th)
- Plays: 1,051 (19th)
- Offensive TDs: 39 (14th)
- Points Per Drive: 1.97 (15th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 1.7 (11th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 32.9 seconds (28th)
2023 Packers Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Matt LaFleur
- Offensive Coordinator: Adam Stenavich
Matt LaFleur discussed giving up play-calling duties following Green Bay’s disappointing season finale against the Lions, but it is unlikely that will actually happen.
Since LaFleur took over in 2019, the Packers rank second in EPA per play and seventh in total points. Those numbers are inflated by an outstanding 2020, however, and the Packers have been more mid-pack as a scoring offense under LaFleur despite having Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
Pace could play some role in Green Bay scoring fewer points than expected given their efficiency – the Packers rank fifth in EPA per play but 11th in points over the last two seasons.
Over the last three seasons, the Packers have ranked 28th, 31st, and 32nd in situation-neutral pace according to Football Outsiders. They finished 19th, 16th, and 28th in total plays.
With Jordan Love taking over at quarterback, there is not much reason to expect that pace or volume to pick up, which is a concern for Green Bay’s skill players.
2022 Packers Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 605 (23rd)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 50.9% (17th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -3.4% (18th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 17.8% (9th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 66% (5th)
2023 Packers Passing Game Preview:
The Packers will face the easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Jordan Love, Sean Clifford
- WR: Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks
- WR: Romeo Doubs, Samori Toure
- WR: Jayden Reed, Grant DuBose
- TE: Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, Josiah Deguara
Pass rate is another concern with Love taking over at quarterback. The Packers rank 11th in neutral pass rate over LaFleur’s tenure (54.7%), but they were 17th (50.9%) last season.
Green Bay finished 23rd in dropbacks despite more negative than average game script – the Packers were 21st in the amount of game time trailing in 2022.
A clear disconnect between Rodgers and LaFleur along with questionable passing game options likely led to the more run-heavy gameplan. The receivers are not much more proven this year, though, and Love has played a grand total of 157 snaps in the NFL.
As for Love, uncertainty and a seemingly easy schedule of pass defenses is his only real case as anything more than a low-end QB2.
Assuming the Packers maintain their slow-paced, run-leaning offense, Love is unlikely to get the passing volume he needs to produce high-end fantasy points with his arm.
That could change if Green Bay is awful and forced to throw. They already struggled last year, however, and the defense is good enough to keep them competitive and using their desired game plan.
Scouts noted Love’s mobility when he was coming out of school, but he does not profile as a player who will produce difference-making rushing numbers – 200 yards feels like a fair over/under if he plays a full season.
All of that said, it is not a given Love will struggle.
The Packers showed faith in Love when they traded away Rodgers and gave him some guaranteed money in 2024. Maybe he hits the ground running, Green Bay’s offense looks closer to the 2020 version than last year’s, and Love produces more than expected on the ground.
Still, he is just a flier in Superflex leagues and best ball.
Christian Watson opened his rookie season by dropping a 75-yard touchdown, and he played just 121 snaps prior to Week 10.
He exploded in that game, going for 107 yards and three touchdowns, scored five more touchdowns over the next three games, and averaged four catches for 65 yards over the final eight weeks.
Watson tied with Justin Jefferson for third in yards per route from Week 10 until the end of the season. He commanded 22.7% of Green Bay’s targets over that span with Allen Lazard healthy.
Watson did overshoot his expected touchdown total last season, but he profiles as the kind of big-play player who will do that regularly – Tyler Lockett, A.J. Brown, and Tyreek Hill also went over their expected touchdown totals last year by a similar amount.
Uncertainty is the word for this passing game, but Watson is a good bet to see over 20% of Green Bay’s targets, has big-play upside (25.8% of his targets were 20 air yards or more last season), and Love has the arm to connect on those deep targets.
That profile gives Watson a chance to hit even if the offense is run-heavy and Love struggles, and he would have the upside for more if things click.
*Preseason Update: Romeo Doubs missed the final preseason game because of a hamstring injury. It could be nothing, but a soft tissue injury this close to the start of the season is a concern. His health is something to monitor.
While Watson is nominally the No. 1, it is possible Romeo Doubs ends up with the most targets.
He was used more around the line of scrimmage as a rookie – 9.43 air yards per target compared to 13.8 for Watson – and could replace Lazard. That role tends to have a bit more volume, although Watson did out-target Lazard over the final eight games a season ago.
However, that role is also more dependent on overall passing volume, Doubs maintaining his catch rate and per-target efficiency, and Doubs earning more work in the high-value areas of the field.
Doubs was targeted just twice on balls thrown to the end zone in 2022, but Lazard led the team with 13 of those targets and was the intended receiver on 31.3% of Green Bay’s throws inside the 10-yard line.
Doubs could prove to be a late-round value if he gets that kind of high-value work and the Packers are able to surprise on offense, but his profile is not as offense resistant at Waston’s.
*Preseason Update: Both rookies, Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave have worked as clear starters throughout the preseason. Reed could struggle for fantasy value as the No. 3 receiver, but Musgrave has real TE1 upside if he is an every-down tight end.
Second-round rookie Jayden Reed looks like the favorite for the No. 3 job, although he will have to beat out Samori Toure, a 2022 seventh rounder.
Standing 5-foot-11, 187 pounds, Reed profiles more as a slot receiver but can stretch the field (4.45 40) and win in contested situations despite his size limitations.
Most importantly for his early-career playing time, the Packers spent significant draft capital on Reed, and only five receivers came off the board before him.
As the broken record says, uncertainty and volume are concerns in this passing game, especially for the No. 3 receiver, but it is not like Watson or Doubs is particularly proven. Reed is someone to watch during camp.
The Packers will also be going young at tight end after drafting Luke Musgrave in the second round and Tucker Kraft in the third.
The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman thinks Musgrave will immediately step in as the No. 1 tight end after the Packers let Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis walk this offseason.
The history of rookie tight ends contributing to fantasy rosters is not stellar – four rookie tight ends have topped 600 receiving yards since the year 2000 – and the old uncertainty and volume concerns are especially true for Musgrave.
Greg Dulcich was able to contribute in a bad Broncos offense last season, however, and Musgrave has the athletic profile of a tight end that could be a factor in fantasy. There are worse third-TE fliers in best ball formats.
2022 Packers Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 443 (15th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.8 (14th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.85 (2nd)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 72% (8th)
2023 Packers Running Game Preview:
The Packers will face the third-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon
- OL: David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, Jon Runyan, Yosh Nijman
Aaron Jones continues to be one of the most efficient running backs in the league.
He was second among qualifying running backs in yards per carry (5.3), fourth in yards per touch (5.6), fourth in EPA per rush (0.03), 11th in rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.69), and ninth in yards per route run (1.25).
AJ Dillon, on the other hand, finished 29th (4.1), 26th (4.6), 16th (-0.02), 35th (-0.01), and 22nd (0.82) in those same metrics.
It is painful that Dillon continues to steal significant work, but Jones still finished 13th among running backs with 272 touches and 12th in fantasy points per game without any significant touchdown luck.
The overall offensive environment is a concern, but Jones could also see more volume if the Packers lean more into the run with Love at quarterback. He has also proven he can maintain high efficiency with a big workload, and the Packers return all of what was a great offensive line last season.
Pushed down draft boards because of concerns about this offense, Jones looks like a value.
Dillon is not as exciting as Jones given his struggles from an efficiency standpoint, but he has averaged nearly 220 touches per season over the last two years. He has also been the runner on 60% of Green Bay’s goal-to-go carries over that span.
Dillon is more reliant on touchdowns than Jones, so the offensive environment is a bigger concern for him. Also, all that usage has amounted to just 9.5 fantasy points per game over the last two years, which would have ranked 34th last season.
Unless this offense is shockingly good or Jones gets hurt, it is tough to imagine Dillon smashing his ADP, making him an unexciting pick in the middle rounds.
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