The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Giants and Packers on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Green Bay | Rank | @ | NY Giants | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | Spread | 6.5 | ||
| 21.75 | Implied Total | 15.25 | ||
| 21.5 | 17 | Points/Gm | 13.3 | 31 |
| 20.3 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 24.3 | 26 |
| 61.0 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 19 |
| 65.4 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.9 | 17 |
| 5.4 | 12 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.1 | 31 |
| 5.2 | 15 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 29 |
| 40.85% | 22 | Rush% | 43.79% | 11 |
| 59.15% | 11 | Pass% | 56.21% | 22 |
| 46.62% | 29 | Opp. Rush % | 44.33% | 22 |
| 53.38% | 4 | Opp. Pass % | 55.67% | 11 |
- The Packers and Giants have each only been favored in one game this season, tied with the Jets for the fewest.
- The Giants are averaging 7.4 points per game at home this season, the fewest in the league.
- Green Bay has 24 plays of 30 or more yards, second in the league behind Miami (29).
- The Packers have outscored opponents by 66 points on passing plays this season, second in the NFL.
- 58.2% of the Giants' set of downs reach third down, the highest rate in the league.
- Green Bay is averaging 2.54 points per drive in the first half over their past five games, fifth in the league.
- The Packers were averaging 0.76 points per drive in the first half over their opening seven games, 31st in the league.
- Green Bay has converted 49.2% of their third downs over that span (third in the league) after a 40.4% rate prior (15th).
- The Giants have forced a takeaway on 17.9% of opponent possessions over their past five games, second in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jordan Love: Love has played the best football of his early career.
Over his past five games, Love has completed 66.1% of his passes (13th) for 7.9 yards per pass attempt (ninth) with 11 touchdowns (tied for second) and two interceptions for a 106.3 rating (fifth).
It was one thing to have success against the Chargers and Lions, but his Sunday night performance against the Chiefs was the best outing in the context of an opponent he has had all season.
Love was QB7 (23.7 points), completing 25-of-36 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns versus Kansas City.
He has now reeled off three straight QB1 scoring weeks.
The Giants have been a solid pass defense over their past seven games, allowing 6.8 Y/A (12th) with a league-high 10 interceptions over that span.
They have faced an ultra-light schedule over that stretch, with the largest feather in their cap limiting Josh Allen to a QB13 scoring week.
Outside of that, they allowed a QB1 overall week to Dak Prescott while facing Aidan O’Connell, Sam Howell (twice), Zach Wilson, and QB, Patriots.
We know the Giants are going to dial up blitzes.
They are blitzing on a league-high 40.8% of dropbacks.
Even over this hot stretch for Love, he has been impacted by the blitz.
Against the blitz over the past five games, Love is completing 63.2% of his passes (15th) for 6.4 Y/A (22nd).
Getting pressure will be key for the Giants.
When Love has not been pressured over that period, he is completing 73.8% of his passes for 7.2 Y/A with seven touchdowns.
Love may be without Christian Watson here, which can also impact things since Watson has gotten going these past two weeks.
Even considering everything, Love has been playing too well and deserves consideration as a back-end QB1.
The best part of handling him in that area is that even throughout his early season struggles, he held a high fantasy floor. Love has rarely bottomed out for fantasy, finishing in the back half of weekly scoring just twice.
Tommy DeVito: DeVito has closed his three starts as QB17 (13.5 points), QB5 (22.5 points), and QB24 (10.2 points).
He is still sporting an unsustainable 6.7% touchdown rate in this offense. For context, Brock Purdy leads the NFL with a 6.9% touchdown rate.
This is a good spot for that to come down.
The Packers are ninth in passing points allowed per game (12.3).
Justin Herbert is the only quarterback to finish inside of the top 10 against Green Bay this season, leaving DeVito as a back-end 2QB option.
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Running Back
Saquon Barkley: Barkley has been a boom-or-bust fantasy option since DeVito took over as the starter.
In those three games, Barkley has been the RB38, RB1, and RB45.
Barkley has posted at least 92 yards in six of his past eight games, with his two down weeks (against Dallas and New England) coming in noticeable spots based on the opponent and run defense.
As long as the Giants can hang around, this week Barkley gets a favorable outlook to play for the upside angle.
While the Packers have been good against the pass this season, they have regularly struggled to defend the run.
Green Bay is allowing 4.31 YPC to running backs (23rd) and 15.6 rushing points per game (27th) to backfields.
Over their past four games, the Packers have allowed 5.4 YPC to backs (31st) with a first down or a touchdown on 29.0% of backfield runs (28th).
Packers RBs: We will follow news throughout the week to see if Aaron Jones will be back in Week 14.
Jones has missed the past two weeks with a knee injury.
Green Bay did add Kenyan Drake to the roster this week, swapping him in for James Robinson.
With Jones out the past two weeks, AJ Dillon has had games of 17 touches for 81 yards and 19 touches for 87 yards against the Lions and Chiefs.
Dillon has handled 80.9% and 82.6% of the backfield touches in those games.
If Jones remains out, then Dillon is a volume-based RB2.
If Jones returns, then Dillon is a touchdown-or-bust FLEX.
Even if Jones does return, he will be tough to handle as more than boom-or-bust FLEX.
Jones has been banged up all season since a Week 1 hamstring injury. The last time that he returned from an injury, he handled just six touches.
Injuries have sapped the juice Jones has had in the past.
He has a run of 10 or more yards on just 1.5% of his carries this season, ranking 57th out of 58 running backs with 50 or more carries, ahead of only Matt Breida.
This is a good matchup.
The Giants have allowed 4.62 YPC to running backs (30th) and 17.7 rushing points per game (30th) to the position. New York has allowed 141.5 total yards per game to backs (28th) with 13 touchdowns (26th).
Wide Receiver
Packers WRs: Just when Christian Watson was getting ramped up with games of 5-94-1 and 7-71-2, he suffered a hamstring injury late on Sunday night.
We have yet to receive official word on his status this week, but given Watson’s chronic issues with hamstring injuries over his first two seasons in the league, we will come into the week on the pessimistic side that he will be active or 100% if he does play. If things change, we will adjust accordingly.
Operating under the assumption that Watson could miss Monday night, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks will get a boost.
With Watson sidelined this season, Doubs leads the team with 21.5% of the targets, earning a target on 24.3% of his routes.
Doubs has been completely touchdown-dependent for fantasy, averaging 8.2 points per game in his weeks without a score.
Reed has also been reliant on touchdowns, but he stands to get the largest target boost looking at his splits with and without Watson available.
On 126 routes run with Watson off the field, Reed has been targeted on 25.4% of his routes. On 174 routes with Watson on the field, Reed has been targeted on 18.4% of his routes.
Reed also has a team-high 20.8% target share against the blitz with Watson off the field, something actionable for this matchup.
Reed also plays 74% of his snaps in the slot, where the Giants have allowed a 75.5% catch rate (30th) and 8.5 yards per target (24th) to wide receivers.
If Watson is out, Reed is a viable WR3 with upside.
He is more of a single-game DFS option, but Wicks has run a route on 72.5% team dropbacks with Watson sidelined. He leads the team with 1.99 yards per route run for the season on his limited sample.
Jalin Hyatt: Heading into the bye, Hyatt caught 5-of-6 targets for 109 yards.
There have only been four times this season in which a New York wide receiver has reached 75 yards in a game, and Hyatt has three of those games.
Despite only having 12 targets (11.8%) from Tommy DeVito, Hyatt has a team-high 37.8% of the air yards with DeVito under center.
Hyatt is still without a touchdown this season, but coming out of the bye he is still the wide receiver on this roster that represents the most fantasy upside for single-game DFS and doing something productive over the final month of the season.
Tight End
Tucker Kraft: Kraft has had games of 2-15-1 and 3-37-0 the past two weeks as a full-time option in the offense.
The injury to Christian Watson could open up more work for Kraft, but paired with the limited fantasy runout we were already getting from Luke Musgrave, Kraft is best left as a single-game DFS dart throw over a season-long streamer.
The Giants have allowed a league-low 58.9% catch rate to tight ends to go along with two touchdowns allowed to the position.