The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 5 matchup between the Raiders and Packers on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Green Bay | Rank | @ | Las Vegas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 21.0 | ||
| 25.0 | 10 | Points/Gm | 15.5 | 25 |
| 24.0 | 20 | Points All./Gm | 25.3 | 24 |
| 57.8 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 57.5 | 28 |
| 70.3 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 20 |
| 4.9 | 21 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 18 |
| 5 | 11 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 21 |
| 39.39% | 21 | Rush% | 37.39% | 27 |
| 60.61% | 12 | Pass% | 62.61% | 6 |
| 49.47% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 49.02% | 29 |
| 50.53% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 50.98% | 4 |
- Green Bay is 30th in the league in first-half point differential (36) and first in the league in second-half point differential (+40).
- The Raiders are 31st in first-half point differential (-37).
- The Raiders are last in the NFL in turnover differential (-9) through four weeks.
- 33.0% of the Green Bay set of downs have led to a third and long (needing seven or more yards), the highest rate in the league. The league average is 22.2%.
- Just 14.4% of the Las Vegas set of downs have led to a third and long, the second-lowest rate in the league behind Miami (14.0%).
- 3.7% of the Raider rushing attempts have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- 5.8% of the Green Bay rushing attempts have gained 10 or more yards, 30th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jordan Love: Love is the ultimate “glass case of emotion” quarterback, but he keeps finding his way to fantasy points.
He has been the front half of weekly scoring in all four weeks this season and has 17 or more fantasy points in every game.
Now, the past two weeks have been hyper-fragile, and his passing points have declined from the week prior in all four outings.
Love has a rushing touchdown in both games. That is cool. We want our quarterbacks to have rushing outs when they struggle. This is how I built my #brand.
But we also need consistent rushing as a signal that those touchdowns are not just happenstance, which Love has not shown. He has more than three rushing attempts in just one of the first four games.
As much as I am skeptical of Love sustaining his fantasy success, he does run into a good spot here to just keep going along for the ride.
Love’s primary bugaboo right now is handling pressure.
When pressured, Love has completed 10-of-30 (33.3%) passes, the lowest rate in the league.
He is averaging 4.2 yards per pass attempt when pressured, ahead of only Daniel Jones (4.0) and whoever is impersonating Joe Burrow (2.8).
The Raiders are 20th in the league in terms of pressure rate (33.8% of dropbacks). The only team that Love has faced with a lower pressure rate has been the Bears.
When the Raiders have not pressured the opposing quarterback, they are completing 77.0% of their passes (26th) with a 103.9 rating (21st).
Vegas is allowing 16.0 passing points per game to quarterbacks (26th) and has allowed every quarterback they faced to finish as QB13 or higher.
They have faced Justin Herbert and Josh Allen, but that also includes Kenny Pickett.
I trust Love more as a QB2 than an outright streamer in 1QB leagues, but he can be a bye-week replacement for those needy.
Jimmy Garoppolo: After missing last week’s game in concussion protocol, Garoppolo is expected back this Monday Night.
Garoppolo has his shortcomings (he has thrown six interceptions already), but he has been a solid matchup-based option for 2QB gamers to open the season.
He completely flatlined against Buffalo (QB33) but was the QB14 against Denver (15.1 points) and the QB15 against the Steelers (17.7 points).
Garoppolo is another quarterback who has drastic splits when kept clean versus pressured.
Kept clean, and he is averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt, fourth in the league. All five of his passing touchdowns have come without pressure.
When pressured, he is averaging 4.4 yards per pass attempt (30th) with zero touchdowns and four interceptions.
The Packers are second in the NFL in pressure rate (42.3%) behind the Cowboys.
When they have pressured quarterbacks, they are allowing a 46.5% completion rate and 4.6 yards per pass attempt.
When they have not gotten home, passers are completing 73.9% of their passers for 7.6 Y/A.
With the Packers generating more pressure than anyone Garoppolo has faced to this point, he is a lower-end QB2 option.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs: The Raiders still cannot generate any type of run game, but Jacobs was able to turn in his best fantasy game of the season last week by cashing in a goal-line opportunity and having his best receiving game of the season.
After catching 10-of-14 targets for 92 yards through three games, Jacobs caught 8-of-11 targets for 81 yards on Sunday.
Aidan O’Connell was hooking Jacobs up with targets, but if he were to keep things going out of the backfield, the Packers are allowing 11.0 receiving points per game to backfields, 26th in the league.
Jacobs has rushed for just 2.7 yards per carry this season, which is ahead of only Cam Akers (2.6) and Dalvin Cook (2.5) among qualifying backs, but he is in no danger of having his workload compromised.
Jacobs now has 80-of-95 backfield touches on the season and has 20 or more touches in three of four games.
Jacobs remains a volume-based RB1.
Aaron Jones: Returning to action after missing the previous two weeks, Jones only played 20 snaps (35.1%) last Thursday, turning six touches into 14 yards.
With no setbacks and 11 days off, I would expect Jones to be the focal point of this backfield moving forward.
Especially since AJ Dillon just cannot be trusted with opportunities at this stage.
Dillon is averaging just 3.0 yards per touch.
We still need to see Green Bay move away from Dillon near the end zone, but Jones walks into a good matchup for his skillset as a fringe RB1.
The Raiders are allowing 141.5 yards per game to backfields (22nd), allowing 14.1 rushing points (21st) to go along with 8.5 receiving points per game (18th) to running backs.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams: Adams scared gamers with a shoulder injury early last week, but he was able to return to catch 8-of-13 targets for 75 yards in a game with Aidan O’Connell under center.
Adams now has received 33 targets over the past two weeks and has at least eight targets with six receptions in every game this season.
He leads all wide receivers with 38.2% of the team targets and 52.7% of the team air yards while drawing a target on 35.2% of his routes.
Just absurd rates that are surely going to come down some but make Adams a sturdy WR1.
Facing his former team, the Packers have not surrendered front-end scoring weeks for fantasy to lead wideouts, but Drake London (6-67-1), Chris Olave (8-104-0) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (5-56-1) have all produced solid lines.
