Packers vs Vikings Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings Sunday afternoon game.

• Green Bay is a league-best 9-1 against the spread this season. 
• Green Bay games are averaging 39.6 combined points per game, 31st in the league.
• All four of the games in Minnesota this season have gone under the implied game total. 
• The Packers are allowing 328.2 yards from scrimmage for fantasy per game, third-fewest in the league.
• Minnesota is fifth in the league in expected points added per opposing dropback defensively while Green Bay is seventh.
• The Vikings are league-best 8-of-11 (72.7%) on fourth down conversions.
• Aaron Rodgers is second in the NFL in points per attempt on throws within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage (0.53) but is 29th in points per attempt on throws further downfield (0.49).

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers felt the effects of missing the entire week of practice on Sunday as he failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since Week 1 after multiple touchdown passes in seven straight games. 

Rodgers will look to get right against a Minnesota defense that has been lively in creating pressure, ranking fifth in pressure rate. Rodgers has only been pressured on 27.2% of his dropbacks (31st), but when teams have gotten home, they have caused him problems. Rodgers is averaging 4.2 yards per pass attempt under pressure as opposed to 8.3 Y/A when kept clean.

Rodgers is no stranger to a Mike Zimmer-led defense. In 12 full games against Minnesota while Zimmer has been with the Vikings, Rodgers has been a QB1 six times with another six games in the back-half of league scoring. Rodgers decimated an injury-riddled Vikings defense a year ago for seven touchdowns. 

This season, the Vikings are fourth in completion rate (61.4%) but do rank 17th in yards allowed per attempt (7.2 Y/A) and 23rd in yards allowed per completion (11.8 yards). They do give up their share of splash plays, but the only quarterbacks to finish higher than QB12 in a week against Minnesota have been Kyler Murray (33.1 points) and Lamar Jackson (30.6 points), who added 9.1 and 12.0 rushing points to their totals those weeks. 

The Vikings do have a sketchy resume drawing Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, and Cooper Rush as part of their sample this year for a grain of salt outside of Joe Burrow (18.6 points), Russell Wilson (16.6 points), and Justin Herbert (12.0 points). Rodgers is still a back-end QB1 option in Week 11, but this is not a spot where I am expecting a spike week.

Kirk Cousins: Just another season where Cousins is getting there for fantasy gamers. Through 10 weeks, Cousins is sitting as the QB10 in points per game (19.6) and has been a QB1 scorer in six of nine games this season. 

The Packers defense is currently on a hot streak of limiting Kyler Murray (9.1 points), Patrick Mahomes (10.6 points), and Russell Wilson (5.6 points) to back-end QB2 performances. The only QB1 scoring weeks they have allowed were to Jameis Winston in Week 1 and Taylor Heinicke in Week 7 (who rushed for 95 yards). Winston is the only passer to throw more than two touchdown passes against the Packers.

The positive news for Cousins is the Packers are not a high-pressure team, ranking 25th in pressure rate (21.4%). Cousins has had extreme splits versus pressure like Rodgers has, passing for 4.1 Y/A under pressure versus 8.5 Y/A when kept clean. The only quarterback with a larger gap than both Rodgers and Cousins in Y/A under pressure versus kept clean is Russell Wilson (-4.7 Y/A). Cousins is more of a floor-based QB2 play in Week 11, but Vegas is projecting this game to be much higher scoring than Minnesota home games and games involving the Packers have been to date to give this shootout appeal in the range of outcomes.

Running Back

Dalvin Cook: Cook is coming off a season-high 27 touches last week. While he worked on the ground (3.9 YPC) for his 94 yards, he was able to find the end zone for the first time since Week 6, his third score on the season. 

Cook now has 20 and 27 touches over his past two games. He also had five targets last week, his most in a game since Week 4. The results weren’t there with three catches for 24 yards, however, giving Cook 12 catches for 66 yards over his past six games. 

Cook scored six touchdowns in two games against the Packers a year ago. This Green Bay defense has been a bit better than last but is still middle of the pack against the run, allowing 4.1 YPC (14th). They are 26th in points allowed per touch (0.95) to backfields on the year but have faced just 23.4 backfield touches per game (third-fewest) thanks to game scripts. Cook remains a front-end RB1 option if the Vikings can stay in neutral game script. 

A.J. Dillon (TRUST): Dillon was already receiving an expanded workload over recent weeks and now is set up to be the workhorse of this backfield with the injury last week to Aaron Jones. With Kylin Hill also already lost for the season, the only other Green Bay backs are Patrick Taylor and Ryquell Armstead.

Dillon turned a career-high 23 touches last week into 128 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Now, he faces a Minnesota defense that is 31st in EPA against the run. 92.3% of the rushing attempts against Minnesota have gained positive yardage, the highest rate in the league.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams (TRUST): Teams have made Adams work this year as he has posted just three WR1 scoring weeks nine games, but he still has double-digit points in every game this season and elite usage which has kept his floor high. Adams has at least 56 yards in every game he played with Rodgers while he has been targeted 10.9 times per game (third among wideouts) and has been targeted on 31.1% of his routes, the highest rate among wide receivers.

Minnesota has been beaten up by leads wideouts, allowing 16.0 points per game (23rd) to opposing WR1 options, allowing the fourth-most yards per game (83.7) to those receivers, despite allowing just three touchdowns. 

Adams has tormented the divisional rival, catching at least five passes in seven straight games against the Vikings with eight touchdowns over that span. 

Justin Jefferson: After nine targets combined the previous two weeks, Klint Kubiak made good on his word last week to get Jefferson involved as he saw a season-high 31.4% target share, catching 9-of-11 targets for 143 yards against the Chargers. 

The Packers were getting roasted by lead wideouts once Jaire Alexander was injured in Week 4, allowing WR1 scoring weeks or a touchdown to all of Diontae Johnson, Ja’Marr Chase, Darnell Mooney, and Terry McLaurin, but then have bounced back to face an injured DeAndre Hopkins (2-66-0) before limiting Tyreek Hill (4-37-0) and D.K. Metcalf (3-26-0) the past two weeks. 

Jefferson will be happy to avoid Alexander after posting a 3-26-0 game on four targets against Green Bay in Week 8 last season after he established himself in the lineup. There is shootout potential here based on the total and the Packers still have enough big games allowed to lead wideouts to keep Jefferson as a WR1 play.

Adam Thielen: Thielen has been a WR3 the past two games with games of 2-6-1 (seven targets) and 5-65-0 (seven targets), but he still has managed seven or more targets in every game but one this season while receiving at least 20% of the team targets in all but one week. He also has found the end zone in six of nine games.

In Thielen’s games without a touchdown, he has been the WR63, WR70, and WR35 while he is averaging a career-low 7.4 yards per target and 10.8 yards per reception, leaving Thielen as a touchdown reliant WR2 against a Green Bay defense allowing just 6.7 yards per target (second) to opposing wide receivers despite the big games allowed to lead wideouts on their resume.

Tight End

Tyler Conklin: Conklin posted a season-low 11 yards last week, but he made up for it by catching a pair of touchdowns, his first trips to the end zone since Week 3. After target shares of 21.2% and 25.0% the previous two games, Conklin was targeted 14.3% of the time last week, but he ran a route on 77.5% of the team dropbacks, his second-highest rate in a game this season. 

The Packers are allowing an 80.6% catch rate to tight ends (31st), but to go with 7.6 yards per target (19th) and a 5.7% touchdown rate (17th) to the position to keep Conklin as a TE2 option.

More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

NE at ATL| GB at MIN | BAL at CHI | WFT at CAR | IND at BUF | DET at CLE | SF at JAX | HOU at TEN | MIA at NYJ | NO at PHI | CIN at LVR | ARI at SEA | DAL at KC | PIT at LAC | NYG at TB