The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 10 matchup between the Panthers and Bears on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Carolina | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 18.25 | Implied Total | 21.75 | ||
| 17.5 | 26 | Points/Gm | 20.9 | 19 |
| 28.3 | 31 | Points All./Gm | 26.9 | 28 |
| 67.0 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 63.0 | 18 |
| 59.4 | 4 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 11 |
| 4.2 | 31 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 17 |
| 5.2 | 19 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 23 |
| 36.57% | 29 | Rush% | 46.74% | 5 |
| 63.43% | 4 | Pass% | 53.26% | 28 |
| 50.11% | 32 | Opp. Rush % | 39.36% | 9 |
| 49.89% | 1 | Opp. Pass % | 60.64% | 24 |
- Both Carolina and Chicago (21-of-28 for each team) are tied for last in the league in allowing opponents to convert 75.0% of their red zone possessions for touchdowns.
- Opponents have converted 48.7% of their third downs against the Bears, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bears are allowing 6.8 yards per passing play, 29th in the league.
- Carolina is averaging 4.4 yards per passing play, 31st in the league.
- Carolina is a league-worst 0-4 when scoring first this season.
- Chicago has turned the ball over on a league-high 18.8% of their possessions.
- The Bears have 209 more penalty yards than their opponents this season, the most in the league.
- The Panthers are 31st in second-half point differential (-47).
- The Bears are 30th in second-half point differential (-39).
- Carolina has a league-worst -72 point differential on rushing plays this season.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Bryce Young: After building up some goodwill and taking small steps forward, Young undid a chunk of that work this past Sunday.
Against the Colts, Young averaged just 4.4 yards per pass attempt, his fewest in a game since the season opener.
He threw one touchdown and three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns.
Closing the week as QB20 (9.0 points), Young has finished higher than QB16 just once through seven games.
Young is stuck as a low-ceiling QB2, but if you have to make the case for him as a matchup-based option in 2QB formats, Chicago is 30th in the league in passing points allowed per attempt (0.495) and is 31st in passing points allowed per game (21st).
Chicago QB: The Bears have entertained the potential that Justin Fields will return this week.
Fields practiced for the first time last Friday.
The short week does not do him any favors, and the Bears may intentionally want to prevent themselves from having a clear path to winning this game since they have Carolina’s draft pick.
If Fields does return, he was on a strong run for fantasy, closing his final two full games as QB4 and QB1.
He was pacing to come up short against Minnesota in Week 6 before injury, but Fields currently has a career-high 6.8% touchdown rate during his action this season.
His 4.0 touchdown passes over expectations are third in the league.
If Fields returns, we should be cautious about his passing upside. But rushing ability is more than enough to keep him as a back-end QB1 with upside.
If Fields remains out, then Tyson Bagent will make a fourth consecutive start.
For fantasy, Bagent has his best day as a starter, ending Week 9 as QB13 (15.8 points).
Bagent threw for a season-high 7.3 yards per pass attempt with two touchdowns. He did throw three interceptions but was able to add 70 rushing yards to mitigate the damage.
Bagent started the game out strong, completing 10-of-13 passes for 148 yards and both touchdowns in the first half.
Things then fell apart, with Bagent connecting on just 8-of-17 passes for 72 yards (4.2 Y/A) with two interceptions after the break. His 19.4 rating in the second half was the lowest of all passers on Sunday.
Bagent would only be an option for needy 2QB gamers.
Carolina is 24th in the NFL in passing points allowed per attempt (0.446), but they have been saved by facing the second-fewest pass attempts per game (27.5).
If getting frisky here for a potential ceiling from either Fields or Bagent, both C.J. Stroud (QB21) and Gardner Minshew (QB21) have been below the fold in weekly output against Carolina over the past two weeks.
Running Back
Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard retained his grip on the Carolina backfield this past week, playing 46 snaps (63.0%) compared to 18 snaps for Miles Sanders and seven snaps for Raheem Blackshear.
Handling 70.8% and 64.5% of the backfield touches the past two weeks, Hubbard has only managed to produce 54 and 67 yards on his opportunities. He has rushed 31 times for 86 yards (2.77 YPC)
He should find efficiency tough here on the ground again.
Chicago is now allowing a league-low 3.23 YPC to running backs and 8.9 rushing points per game to the position (seventh).
Where the Bears have been vulnerable to backs is allowing a league-high 15.9 receiving points per game to the position.
Hubbard is a volume-based RB2/FLEX with his best outlook coming in full-PPR formats based on where Chicago is struggling to defend the position.
Bears RB: The Bears have opened the 21-day window for Khalil Herbert to return. Early indications this week are that he has a good shot at playing Thursday.
We will keep tabs on his status, but his potential return adds an element of volatility to this unit.
Chicago has been playing D’Onta Foreman as their lead running back in Herbert’s absence, with both Roschon Johnson and Darrynton Evans mixing in.
Foreman handled 20-of-26 backfield touches on Sunday, which were all rushing attempts.
Before he was injured, Herbert was coming on. He handled 78.6% of the backfield touches in his last full game and posted 76 yards on 10 touches before exiting Week 5.
The layoff and potential usage for Foreman or the other backs here make it hard to thrust Herbert back into lineups as more than a matchup-based FLEX, but this backfield as a whole has a great matchup.
Running backs have scored a league-high 44.6% of the fantasy points that Carolina has allowed this season.
They have allowed 4.76 YPC to backs (31st) and a league-high 21.0 rushing points to the position.
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Wide Receiver
D.J. Moore: Moore had another quiet game on Sunday, catching 3-of-5 targets for 44 yards against the Saints.
After closing Week 4 as WR5 (8-131-1) and Week 5 as WR2 (8-230-3), Moore has now been the WR37, WR21, WR51, and WR57 the past four weeks.
With Bagent on the field, Moore has received 24.5% of the team targets and has been targeted on 22.0% of his routes run.
With Fields under center, Moore had 23.8% of the targets targeted on 18.4% of his routes.
The biggest difference between Bagent and Fields has been Moore collecting vertical targets.
30.6% of Moore’s targets from Fields have been 20 yards or further downfield compared to an 11.5% rate with Bagent.
If Fields returns, then Moore become an upside WR2.
If we get another week of Bagent, Moore is a volume-based WR3.
Despite not facing a ton of passing volume, Carolina has been giving to opposing WR1 targets, allowing 15.7 points per game (20th) to those lead wideouts.
