As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Bryce Young, Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, Jonathan Mingo, and every other notable Panther, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Among 106 receivers to run at least 200 routes, Adam Thielen finished 90th in yards per route run (1.06), 74th in target rate per route (15.9%), and 86th in yards per target (6.7).
- Jonathan Mingo did not top 379 yards in a season until his senior year and averaged just 52 yards per game at Ole Miss. On the bright side, he did average 15.7 yards per catch.
- Over the last three years, Miles Sanders has averaged 0.57 yards per route run, 3.9 yards per target, and 5.9 yards per reception.
2022 Panthers Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 347 (20th)
- Total Offense: 5,206 (29th)
- Plays: 976 (32nd)
- Offensive TDs: 32 (22nd)
- Points Per Drive: 1.76 (20th)
- EPA+ Per Play: -3.6 (21st)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 32.23 seconds (24th)
2023 Panthers Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Frank Reich
- Offensive Coordinator: Thomas Brown
Steve Wilks performed well as interim head coach, getting the Panthers to within a game of the playoffs, but Carolina decided to move on and hire ex-Colts coach Frank Reich.
Reich brought in Rams assistant head coach Thomas Brown as offensive coordinator along with a host of big coaching names like Duce Staley, Jim Caldwell, and Josh McCown.
Even with all that coaching talent, Reich intends to call plays “to start.”
The Colts were a disaster on offense last year, but Reich did a mostly good job with a rotating cast of quarterbacks during his time in Indy.
Over his first four seasons, the Colts were 10th in EPA per play. Reich was also a big part of Philly’s success under Doug Pederson.
The tendency numbers are not as promising. The Colts were 21st in neutral pass rate and two percent under their expected pass rate during Reich’s four full seasons.
They also finished in the bottom half of the league in situation-neutral pace in three of those four years including dead last in 2021.
The one year they played quickly was 2018 when they finished second. It is presumably not a coincidence that is the only year Reich got to work with Andrew Luck.
The Colts were also fifth in neutral pass rate and four percent over their expected pass rate that year.
It is possible Reich wants to run a fast-paced, high-volume passing offense but has simply not had the quarterback to do it.
If Bryce Young is who the Panthers obviously think he is, Reich should have the quarterback to run the offense the way he wants moving forward.
Maybe Reich keeps the reins on the offense in year one, especially given the state of the receiving corps without D.J. Moore, but there is some upside here if Young hits the ground running.
2022 Panthers Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 509 (30th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 45.8% (27th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -8.7% (29th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 17.4% (6th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 62% (9th)
2023 Panthers Passing Game Preview:
The Panthers will face the fourth-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Bryce Young, Andy Dalton
- WR: Adam Thielen, Laviska Shenault
- WR: D.J. Chark, Terrace Marshall
- WR: Jonathan Mingo, Shi Smith
- TE: Hayden Hurst, Ian Thomas
Stuck in quarterback purgatory since 2019, the Panthers finally made the move for a franchise building block, trading up to No. 1 overall to select Bryce Young.
The Heisman winner in 2021, Young threw for 8,200 yards and 79 touchdowns over his final two years at Alabama.
He also produced as a runner in college, scrambling for 592 yards over his final two seasons, and produced outside of structure, throwing for 7.7 yards per attempt and a 14.9% touchdown rate outside of the pocket.
Given his production on the biggest stages in college, there is reason to believe Young will be able to step in as a quality quarterback from Week 1.
From a fantasy perspective, though, there are serious questions.
While Young moves well, he does not profile as a high-end rushing quarterback, so the rushing floor might not be there in the same way it will be for someone like Anthony Richardson.
Second, the surrounding cast is questionable at best with D.J. Moore now playing in Chicago.
Adam Thielen is 33 and coming off easily the least efficient season of his career. D.J. Chark has played 15 games in the last two seasons and has not really shined since his big 2019. And second-round rookie Jonathan Mingo topped 400 yards once in college, his 51/861/5 senior season.
Frank Reich’s recent history of pass rate and pace also does not work in Young’s favor, although as mentioned above those trends might have been a product of the quarterback situation in Indianapolis.
Young is worth taking a shot on in 2QB formats and best ball given his pedigree, but his path to weekly relevance in 1QB formats is narrow.
As mentioned above, Adam Thielen is coming off easily his worst season from an efficiency standpoint despite a respectable 70/716/6 final line.
Among 106 receivers to run at least 200 routes, Thielen finished 90th in yards per route run (1.06), 74th in target rate per route (15.9%), and 86th in yards per target (6.7).
He got there on routes run last season, finishing second behind teammate Justin Jefferson among all receivers.
And “getting there” was still just a WR44 finish in per-game scoring and five top-24 weeks in a passing offense that was better and had a lot more volume than is projected for the Panthers passing game this season.
Given the depth chart, there is a chance Thielen runs enough routes and sees enough targets to return fantasy value even if his efficiency remains low, but it is tough to see real fantasy upside.
After playing just four games in his final season with the Jaguars, D.J. Chark managed 11 for the Lions last season, catching 30 passes for 502 yards and 3 touchdowns.
That line was good enough for a WR56 finish in per-game scoring. Chark finished as a top-24 receiver three times.
Chark did post an impressive 9.7 yards per target in 2022, and he showed some ability to command targets with a 19.3% target rate per route during his time with the Jaguars, a decent mark for a deep threat.
The fantasy argument for Chark is the lack of other receiving options on the depth chart and his demonstrated WR2 fantasy upside, although that was way back in 2019.
Jonathan Mingo is the most interesting receiver in this group based on his draft cost and physical tools.
The No. 39 overall pick, Mingo was the fifth receiver off the board in this draft class and ran a 4.48 40 with a 39.5-inch vertical and 10-foot-9 broad jump on a 6-foot-2, 220-pound frame at the Combine.
The concern is a lack of production in college. Mingo did not top 379 yards in a season until his senior year and averaged just 52 yards per game at Ole Miss. On the bright side, he did average 15.7 yards per catch.
While that lack of production raises concerns about Mingo’s ability to immediately step into a productive role in the NFL, he is already working with the first-team offense and should open the season as a starter.
Given what is ahead of him on the depth chart, it would not be a surprise if Mingo ends up as the team’s WR1 and a usable option in fantasy.
Former second-round picks Terrace Marshall and Laviska Shenault are also on the roster and interesting names to monitor.
Following a disaster of a rookie season, Marshall bounced back with a 28/490/1 line last season and was a nearly every-down player by the end of the year.
Unfortunately for his fantasy value, he played behind Mingo in the first preseason game before picking up a back injury in practice.
Shenault caught 27 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown last season.
He got even less run with Bryce Young in the preseason opener than Marshall, and he has not proven to be anything more than a gadget player.
Shenault had negative air yards on his 32 targets last season after averaging 5.83 air yards per target during his time in Jacksonville.
He averaged 7.45 half-PPR points per game during his time with the Jaguars despite seeing nearly six targets per game.
Even if he earns playing time, Shenault’s fantasy upside is questionable.
Signed away from the Bengals over the spring, Hayden Hurst is set to serve as the TE1 for the Panthers.
Hurst has averaged 1.18 yards per route run in his career, which would have been 28th among qualifying tight ends last season, and has commanded a target on 17.1% of his career routes, which would have been 26th.
That said, Hurst did finish as the TE9 when he got 88 targets with the Falcons back in 2020, and there is a path to that kind of workload in Carolina given the questions at receiver.
He was still just the TE15 in per-game scoring that season, however, and his career 6.6 yards per target average does not suggest there is a ton of upside.
It is also a concern he managed just 414 yards and two touchdowns on 68 targets with the Bengals last season, very likely a better passing offense than the one he will be in this year.
There is nothing wrong with Hurst’s late TE2 draft cost, but it makes more sense to go after higher upside players in that part of the draft.
2022 Panthers Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 464 (11th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.8 (14th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.56 (9th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 72% (8th)
2023 Panthers Running Game Preview:
The Panthers will face the 10th-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Miles Sanders, Chuba Hubbard, Raheem Blackshear
- OL: Ikem Ekwonu, Brady Christensen, Bradley Bozeman, Austin Corbett, Taylor Moton
This offensive line is one of the more underrated units in the league.
They finished ninth in adjusted line yards, eighth in run block win rate, and opened up holes for a running game that was seventh in EPA per rush AFTER Christian McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers.
Carolina addressed the hole at the top of the depth chart by singing Miles Sanders over the offseason.
Sanders is coming off his best season as a pro, running for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Eagles.
There are not many questions about Sanders as a runner.
The Panthers line might not be as good as the one Sanders ran behind with the Eagles, but it should be a quality unit assuming everyone is back healthy, and Sanders has averaged five yards per attempt thus far in his career.
While he is joining a worse offense, Sanders should have less competition for carries around the goal line.
Last year with the Eagles, Sanders handled just 32.8% of the goal-to-go carries. Jalen Hurts was the runner on 39.7% of those opportunities.
The RB17 in half-PPR points per game last season, Sanders is a solid bet to return at least RB2 value as the clear lead runner for the Panthers.
His fantasy upside will be determined by his role in the passing game.
After catching 50 passes as a rookie, Sanders has caught 74 total in the last three seasons.
Over the last three years, he has averaged 0.57 yards per route run, 3.9 yards per target, and 5.9 yards per reception.
He was not used in the passing game during most of his run with the Eagles, and he did not force the issue with his play.
On the other hand, the Colts targeted running backs on 21.4% of their attempts under Reich, the ninth-highest mark over that span, and shortly after Sanders signed, the coach said he views him as a three-down back.
That at least opens the opportunity for Sanders to take on more work in the passing game, something that would raise his fantasy ceiling.
As it stands, Sanders looks like a safe bet at his current draft cost — assuming the groin injury that is keeping him out of preseason action does not linger into Week 1 — with the chance for better if he can get more involved as a receiver.
Chuba Hubbard appears to be next up on the depth chart — assuming the ankle injury he picked up in the second preseason game is not a long-term concern — and is coming off a solid overall season but especially as a receiver.
If Sanders falters, Hubbard could step into the third-down role, and he would have contingency value if Sanders is forced to miss any time.
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