The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 17 Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints Sunday afternoon game.
| Carolina | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 15.3 | Implied Total | 22.8 | ||
| 18.5 | 26 | Points/Gm | 21.1 | 17 |
| 23 | 19 | Points All./Gm | 20.3 | 4 |
| 65.1 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 61.5 | 26 |
| 60.7 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 20 |
| 4.7 | 31 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 28 |
| 5 | 2 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 7 |
| 41.29% | 18 | Rush% | 47.29% | 4 |
| 58.71% | 15 | Pass% | 52.71% | 29 |
| 46.81% | 30 | Opp. Rush % | 40.54% | 12 |
| 53.19% | 3 | Opp. Pass % | 59.46% | 21 |
- 42.9% of the Carolina touchdowns have been via passing, 31st in the league.
- Carolina has -61.7 expected points earned via their passing offense, the worst in the league. The next closest team (Giants) is at -31.9.
- 68.6% of the Carolina targets have been deemed as catchable per Pro Football Focus, lowest rate in the league.
- 70.3% of the New Orleans targets have been deemed catchable, 30th in the league.
- Opponents have scored a touchdown on 17.5% of their drives against New Orleans, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Saints are first in the league in red zone conversion rate allowed defensively (42.9%) and fourth offensively (63.0%).
Quarterback
Taysom Hill: Hill was unable to play in Week 16 due to COVID protocols but is expected to return this week. Hill managed just 9.5 fantasy points Week 15 against Tampa Bay, finally having that floor game we were concerned about. It didn’t help that the Saints turtled on a lead while shutting out the Bucs, but Hill was objectively bad as a passer again, completing 48.1% of his passes for 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Hill has completed 55.7% of his passes now this season for 6.7 Y/A while he has not thrown a touchdown pass in either of his past two games.
Hill is completing 60.3% of his passes for 7.5 yards per pass attempt on first and second down passes as opposed to a 42.9% completion rate and 4.5 Y/A on third down pass attempts.
Hill still has 11 carries in all three starts to provide rushing equity at any moment, but his floor is entirely tied to those rushing points. With just 33 yards rushing last week, the floor caved in.
Carolina is another good team defensively that is aggressive. New Orleans just faced the top two defenses in blitz rate without an offensive touchdown and the Panthers are third in blitz rate (34.7%). Against the blitz in Week 15, Hill completed 3-of-9 passes for 33 yards (3.7 Y/A). The Panthers blitzed relentlessly when these teams played in Week 2, sending heat on 39.3% of Jameis Winston’s dropbacks while the Saints had no answer.
The Panthers are sixth in the league in passing points allowed per game (12.8) forcing Hill to be a rushing-dependent QB2.
