The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Bills and Patriots.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New England | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Spread | -14 | ||
| 16.25 | Implied Total | 30.25 | ||
| 17 | 31 | Points/Gm | 31.8 | 2 |
| 24.1 | 23 | Points All./Gm | 22.1 | 12 |
| 60.7 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 60 | 24 |
| 62 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.9 | 16 |
| 4.8 | 28 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.2 | 3 |
| 5.6 | 20 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 23 |
| 43.06% | 17 | Rush% | 47.14% | 8 |
| 56.94% | 16 | Pass% | 52.86% | 25 |
| 47.12% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 40.88% | 9 |
| 52.88% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 59.12% | 24 |
- New England is 0-7 when their opponent scores first, which is the worst record in the league.
- The Bills are 8-0 when leading at the half this season.
- Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in eight straight games, the longest streak since Tampa Bay over the 2020-2021 seasons.
- Buffalo averages a league-high 5.4 plays of 20 or more yards per game over their past eight games.
- The Patriots average 2.5 plays of 20 or more yards per game, 31st in the league.
- Buffalo averages a league-high 3.01 points per drive and a league-best 3.56 points at home.
- New England averages 1.55 points per drive, ahead of only the Browns (1.34) and Giants (1.34).
- The Patriots have scored a touchdown on 11.9% of their possessions on the road, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Bills allow 1.4 sacks plus turnovers per game, the fewest in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen followed up his 51.9-point outing in Week 14 with a casual 41.3 points Sunday in Detroit.
That is the best 2-game fantasy stretch for any quarterback and the most fantasy points scored by a player in back-to-back games since Todd Gurley in 2017.
Only two other players (Jerry Rice and Drew Bennett) have better 2-game fantasy stretches outside Gurley’s in the Super Bowl era.
Allen has at least 24 fantasy points in four straight games, while the Bills keep racking up 30-plus points on offense weekly.
Likely, Buffalo will not be pressed on the scoreboard the same way here as in the past two weeks, but Allen is the top fantasy option at his position this week.
He has the highest team total and faces a defense that ranks 25th in passing points per game (14.7).
The Patriots are 4th in the NFL regarding man coverage (37.4%), something we highlighted last week as a plus for Allen’s matchup.
Allen has thrown a league-high 17 passing touchdowns against man coverage this season.
What will be intriguing is if we see Allen need to run as much in recent weeks.
He has averaged 15.1 rushing points per game over his past five games.
That would rank only behind Saquon Barkley (16.8) and Derrick Henry (16.1) among running backs on the season.
Drake Maye: It was not always pretty, but the box score added up in the end.
Maye ended last week QB11 (17.5 points).
Through three quarters on Sunday, Maye only had 82 passing yards with 5.1 yards per attempt and an interception.
He then went 7-of-8 for 120 yards with an off-script passing touchdown and added a rushing touchdown to his line in the fourth quarter.
Maye has been a solid floor-based QB2, finishing lower than QB18 in weekly scoring in just one of his complete games this season.
Maye has completed 80% and 82.6% of his passes the past two weeks against zone-centric defenses of the Colts and Cardinals.
He has that again with the Bills, who play zone coverage on 72.7% of their snaps (9th) and are 30th in blitz rate (16.3%).
Buffalo has been beaten up by Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff the past two weeks, but this defense is still a step up from the Colts and Cardinals.
Before these past two games, the Bills had allowed one QB1 scoring week on the season.
With New England being a massive road underdog attached to a light team total, Maye is a floor-based QB2.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Broncos @ Chargers -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Texans @ Chiefs -- FREE | Saturday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens -- FREE | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Saints @ Packers -- FREE | Monday Night Football |