The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Patriots and Broncos.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New England | Rank | @ | Denver | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 14.0 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 13.3 | 32 | Points/Gm | 21.7 | 16 |
| 21.4 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 25.1 | 30 |
| 60.9 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 58.9 | 31 |
| 63.9 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 21 |
| 4.7 | 28 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 20 |
| 4.8 | 5 | Def. Yards/Play | 6 | 30 |
| 40.91% | 22 | Rush% | 45.45% | 6 |
| 59.09% | 11 | Pass% | 54.55% | 27 |
| 42.23% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 43.76% | 20 |
| 57.77% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 56.24% | 13 |
- New England is a league-worst 3-10-1 against the point spread this season.
- Denver is 7-1 when they score first as opposed to 0-6 when the opponent scores first.
- New England is a league-worst 0-9 when the opponent scores first.
- 40.1% of the drives against Denver have reached the red zone or scored prior, the second-highest rate in the league.
- 20.9% of the New England possessions have reached the red zone or scored prior, the second-lowest rate in the league.
- 25.5% of the runs against New England have gained five or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
- 41.3% of the runs against Denver have gained five or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- Denver has allowed opposing running backs to have a league-high 15 runs of 20 or more yards.
- New England running backs have combined for one run of 20 or more yards, 31st in the league.
- The Patriots are averaging 2.1 plays per game that have gained 20 or more yards, the fewest in the NFL.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Russell Wilson: It was not pretty, but Wilson squeezed out a QB11 (17.5 points) scoring game last week in Detroit.
Wilson completed just 56.2% of his passes, matching a season low. That was the third game in a row that Wilson has completed fewer than 60% of his passes.
He was just 4-of-10 passing for 69 yards in the first half, using a jailbreak second half and adding a rushing touchdown to anchor his fantasy day.
Wilson has not finished higher than QB10 in a week since Week 4. He also has not finished lower than QB17 in a week since Week 6.
He has been the definition of a floor-based QB2 for fantasy.
This is another spot where it is hard to expect a spike week for Wilson.
Wilson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in just two of his past 10 games.
For as bad as things have gone for New England this season, they have still shown up defensively.
The Patriots are 11th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.375).
Passers have a 3.3% touchdown rate against them, which is sixth in the league.
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- Cowboys @ Dolphins
- Patriots @ Broncos
- Raiders @ Chiefs — FREE
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