As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Mac Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Rhamondre Stevenson, Ezekiel Elliott, and every other notable Patriot, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Mac Jones has averaged 7.5 rushing yards per game so far in his career and has a single rushing touchdown in 31 starts.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster posted his highest yards per route run since 2018 and once again was able to create after the catch while playing out wide on a career-high percentage of his snaps last season.
- On 18 goal-to-go touches, tied for 10th among running backs, Rhamondre Stevenson scored just four touchdowns last season.
2022 Patriots Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 364 (17th)
- Total Offense: 5,348 (26th)
- Plays: 1,006 (28th)
- Offensive TDs: 31 (25th)
- Points Per Drive: 1.63 (25th)
- EPA+ Per Play: -4.7 (24th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 31.16 seconds (17th)
2023 Patriots Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Bill Belichick
- Offensive Coordinator: Bill O’Brien
Interestingly, having a defensive coordinator call plays on offense did not work.
In a cunning move, New England decided to hire an offensive coordinator this year, bringing back Bill O’Brien following his successful stint under Nick Saban at Alabama.
O’Brien led a top-three offense during his one year as the offensive coordinator in New England, but his Houston offenses never cracked the top 10 in yards or points including the two full seasons with Deshaun Watson at quarterback.
Those offenses did generally rank well in situation-neutral pace, which means we could see a bit more volume from New England moving forward.
More importantly, O’Brien is an actual offensive coach.
Even if O’Brien is “bad” for an offensive coach, having an actual offensive coach should help Mac Jones, who just missed O’Brien at Alabama, and his playmakers.
2022 Patriots Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 600 (24th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 52.8% (11th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -1.2% (11th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 18.3% (11th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 61% (13th)
2023 Patriots Passing Game Preview:
The Patriots will face the sixth-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Mac Jones
- WR: DeVante Parker, Kayshon Boutte
- WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Demario Douglas
- WR: Kendrick Bourne, Tyquan Thornton (IR)
- TE: Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki
Playing in a dysfunctional offense, Mac Jones took a step back across the board in his sophomore season.
He finished 28th among 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, 25th in yards per attempt (6.8), and 24th in interception rate (2.5%).
Benched at one point in the season, Jones finished with 2,997 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 14 games.
Despite the awful season, Jones heads into 2023 as the clear starter in New England and has an actual offensive coordinator calling the plays.
Will that help him in fantasy?
It is tough to say yes.
Jones has averaged 7.5 rushing yards per game so far in his career and has a single rushing touchdown in 31 starts.
His 1.16 rushing fantasy points per game ranked 24th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks last season.
That means he has to be in the elite of the elite as a passer to be a fantasy factor while also finishing near the top of the league in volume.
There are not many reasons to expect either of those things to happen, and the pass-catching talent is not special.
Jones should have a better year in real-football terms, but he remains a lackluster fantasy option.
New England’s big offseason addition was JuJu Smith-Schuster, who will replace now-Raider Jakobi Meyers in the offense.
Smith-Schuster had a decent one-year run with the Chiefs that ended with a Super Bowl ring last season.
He finished the regular season with 78 catches for 933 yards and three touchdowns. He was the WR37 in per-game fantasy scoring.
Smith-Schuster posted his highest yards per route run since 2018 and once again was able to create after the catch while playing out wide on a career-high percentage of his snaps.
He is also a good replacement for Meyers, who played 59.9% of his snaps out of the slot last season.
That role netted Meyers a WR27 finish in per-game scoring, but he did finish well above his expected touchdown total with six.
Currently the WR53 at Underdog, Smith-Schuster looks like a value compared to his projection, but he could be a player who looks solid in the final rankings but does not do a lot to affect winning for fantasy teams.
Meyers finished better than the WR28 in five of 14 games last season, and Smith-Schuster was better than the WR35 in just five of 16 games in a much better Chiefs passing game last year.
There is nothing wrong with Smith-Schuster’s price, but taking a shot on higher upside rather than floor makes sense at that part of the draft.
If another Patriots receiver is drafted, it is usually DeVante Parker.
New England was in the running for DeAndre Hopkins at one point this offseason, but when that ended they decided to sign Parker to a three-year, $33 million extension.
In his first season with the Patriots, Parker caught 31 passes for 539 yards and three scores in 13 games.
He easily led the receiving corps in air yards per target (15.9) and yards per reception (17.4).
The new coaching staff could adjust his usage, but that role fits Parker well, and the lack of development from Tyquan Thornton along with his visit to injured reserve means New England has no one else to reliably stretch the field.
That role could result in spike fantasy weeks for Parker, but he is not a great bet for consistent production unless he starts commanding a larger target share.
With Thornton out, Kendrick Bourne should open the season as the WR3. The rest of this receiving corps can be ignored in most formats.
There is some intrigue at tight end.
After being misused last season with the Dolphins, Mike Gesicki signed a one-year, $9 million contract with the Patriots in March.
Gesicki had back-to-back 700-yard seasons before 2022, earning a target on around 20% of his routes over that span.
The Texans used 12 personnel at the seventh-highest rate in the league during Bill O’Brien’s time as head coach.
Given the questions at receiver, it makes sense for O’Brien to lean into two-TE sets and get Gesicki involved as a receiver.
He is a decent late-round option at tight end.
The other TE in that set will be Hunter Henry, who finished with a 41/509/2 line last season.
While Gesicki projects better as the “receiving” option of the duo, Henry is a good receiver himself who has a couple of big touchdown seasons on his resume.
He is also a decent dart throw.
2022 Patriots Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 404 (19th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.7 (17th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.36 (19th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 68% (32nd)
2023 Patriots Running Game Preview:
The Patriots will face the fifth-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Rhamondre Stevenson, Ezekiel Elliott
- OL: Trent Brown, Cole Strange, David Andrews, Mike Onwenu, Riley Reiff
It was not expected at the beginning of the season, but Rhamondre Stevenson dominated the backfield work in New England last year.
He handled 62.3% of the running back touches in 2022, gaining 1,461 yards from scrimmage and scoring six touchdowns.
He was only the RB14 in per-game scoring in part because of a lack of touchdowns, but it was still an outstanding outcome for a player drafted outside the top 35 running backs.
Understandably, Stevenson is not going so cheaply this season, and there was not much concern about that price until Ezekiel Elliott showed up in late August.
Stevenson struggled to convert in the red zone last season. On 18 goal-to-go touches, tied for 10th among running backs, he scored just four touchdowns.
He went well under his expected rushing touchdown total for the season.
That lack of success is a concern given it is exactly where Elliott has been good the last couple of seasons.
Over the last two years, Zeke leads the league with 54 attempts on third or fourth down with three or fewer yards to go.
Elliott converted for a first down 70.4% of the time on those carries, ninth among backs with at least 20 carries in those situations.
He is seventh over the last two years with 37 carries in goal-to-go situations.
He scored a touchdown every 2.18 of those carries, fifth among backs with at least 10 goal-to-go carries in the last two years.
It seems unlikely Stevenson handles 55.2% of New England’s goal-to-go carries with Elliott around, but the good news is he already showed he can be a high-end RB2 without elite touchdown numbers.
Of course, it is not a given he once again sees 17% of the team targets, third among all running backs, and he will likely lose more than just the red zone touches to Zeke.
Stevenson is a risk in the third round, but he could be a good buy low if he falls outside the top 15 running backs.
As for Zeke, he has not averaged more than 4.2 yards per carry since 2019, and just 7.4% of his carries went for 10 or more yards last season.
Unlikely to get enough volume to negate his lack of efficiency while Stevenson is healthy, Elliott will be a touchdown prayer most weeks.
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