The regular season is over, but fantasy football does not need to end.
Playoff fantasy football has several different options, and because each has a unique strategy, there tends to be more of a DFS game-theory edge vs. traditional regular season leagues.
I’ll touch on two different tournaments offered on different platforms and how to best approach these in hopes of one last chance at a big payday this season.
What is Playoff Fantasy Football?
Playoff fantasy football is an opportunity to keep the fantasy football season going beyond Week 17.
There are several different formats (detailed below) and several different ways to play.
Our favorite contests are found at Underdog, FFPC, and NFC.
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Playoff Fantasy Football Formats
Underdog offers several playoff-long best ball tournaments similar to their Best Ball Mania regular season option. Entry fees range from $5 to $250.
Each contest offers 10-round drafts with six people in each draft.
Each roster consists of:
- 1 quarterback
- 1 running back
- 2 wide receivers/tight ends
- 1 FLEX
- 5 bench spots
Like regular season best ball, there is no weekly roster management. There is no way to add players or remove players from a roster. If a player is knocked out of the playoffs, they are useless to the team.
Teams that advance through each round of the playoffs earn prizes, but the biggest prizes are available in the final round, which is the Super Bowl.
FFPC offers one format with two different entry fees and a chance to win $500K with a $200 buy-in or 100K with a $35 buy-in.
The larger entry fee tournament is capped at 7,800 teams, but the smaller entry fee has a much larger field with 160,000 entries.
There are no drafts or DFS-like salary restrictions in the FFPC Playoff Challenge. Instead, 12 roster spots have to be filled with a maximum of one player per NFL team.
Each roster consists of:
- 1 quarterback
- 2 running backs
- 2 wide receivers
- 1 tight end
- 4 FLEX (any combination of RB, WR, or TE)
- 1 defense/special teams
- 1 kicker
Scoring settings are regular PPR but TE-premium, which earns 1.5 points per reception for TEs. Players earn double the points in the Super Bowl.
Similarly, the NFC offers one format with two different entry fees with a top prize of $150k in a $200 buy-in. That is a smaller field contest capped at 1,750 entrants. There is also a 50k top prize in a $50 buy-in capped at 2,300 entrants.
Rosters consist of 12 players, but managers change their roster each round and can add an additional player from each team every round.
That’s not the only unique part of this contest as each additional week a player is in the lineup, their point total multiplies.
Players on the roster in Week 1 earn double points in Week 2, triple in Week 3, and quadruple in the Super Bowl.
Every week when a new player is added that player starts at 1X point value, increasing every additional week.
In theory, assuming no injuries, a Super Bowl roster would consist of a 4X, 3X, 2X, and 1X from each of the two final teams.
Each roster consists of
- 2 quarterbacks
- 3 running backs
- 4 wide receivers/TE
- 1 flex (any combination of RB, WR, or TE)
- 1 defense/special teams
- 1 kicker
Scoring settings are regular PPR, but quarterbacks earn 6 points for passing touchdowns.
Playoff Fantasy Football Strategy and Game Theory
The starting point of these contests should be similar to that of a showdown DFS slate. That involves telling a story before setting a lineup.
Start by mapping out what you think will happen in the playoffs by completing a playoff bracket, and then build a lineup based on that story.
Each entrant has to omit two teams from their lineup. I’d highly recommend that the D/ST and kicker spots as well as two teams not selected be from the pool of six teams that are eliminated in the Wild Card round of your bracket (or Baltimore & San Francisco if the bracket has them losing in the Divisional Round).
After that, it is time to think about leverage and pivots like a typical DFS slate.
Christian McCaffrey and CeeDee Lamb will be rostered by more than half the field. Pivoting to a different teammate of one of the projected higher-rostered players can create a large differentiation from the field.
Use the matchups from the completed bracket to aid player selection and pinpoint areas where a unique pivot can create leverage on the field.
Matchups matter. A first-round upset by a team like the Los Angeles Rams changes who each team plays in the second round.
The second round could potentially be 49ers vs. Rams and Cowboys vs. Eagles in that scenario. If all favorites win, however, it will be 49ers vs. Eagles and Cowboys vs. Lions.
You don’t necessarily need to be correct on the bracket, but it helps.
I also rank each of the Wild Card games one through six in the games I’m most confident in, usually using flex plays on players who are from the losing team of my least two confident games.
The NFC contest strategy is slightly different as the point escalators are important, and I’d recommend working backward starting with the Super Bowl.
Map out the players you want at 4X points and start there, but also create a plan in advance of which direction you will proceed for those teams on 3X and 2X plays in the following rounds.
Let’s use a 49ers vs. Ravens example.
Lamar Jackson is the obvious 4 X play from the Ravens, and Christian McCaffrey is a 4X candidate for the 49ers. That is straightforward, but if you want Brock Purdy as a 3X, plan for it.
Players only create a multiplier if they are on your roster for subsequent weeks, if you want to select Brock Purdy in Week 2, it is best to use a quarterback selection on the highest-scoring quarterback from the teams you project to lose in the Wild Card.
This makes working backwards so important, to maximize the number of players utilizing the multiplier.
I’d highly recommend reading Rich Hribar’s Worksheet articles to help highlight players who are likely to have success in the Wild Card Round before submitting a lineup.
Tod Burros and I will be doing a live show which will be available as a podcast as we discuss some of our favorite players and pivots as well as teams that make sense to fade.
Playoff Fantasy Football Targets and Fades
Strategy disclaimer: It is my belief the NFC provides a better option for position players as the defenses are weaker in comparison to the AFC. Between the two teams faded and the kicker and D/ST spots, I think 3 or 4 of those should be used on AFC teams.
49ers to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Brock Purdy
- Christian McCaffrey
- Deebo Samuel
- Brandon Aiyuk
- George Kittle
The 49ers are overwhelming favorites to win the NFC and for good reason.
Unlike the Ravens, the 49ers have multiple players who could be the optimal selection if the 49ers make it to the Super Bowl, and I do believe this is a great team to try to differentiate from the field, which will predominantly play Christian McCaffrey.
Brock Purdy provides a great leverage play to McCaffrey, and we have seen in DFS this year where contests have been won by playing Purdy without any of the pass catchers.
Cowboys to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Dak Prescott
- Tony Pollard
- CeeDee Lamb
- Jake Ferguson
Some are hopeful this is the year Mike McCarthy finds a way to beat Kyle Shanahan in the playoffs, but this could be the third straight year the Cowboys are eliminated by the 49ers.
CeeDee Lamb will be one of the chalkiest plays in both contests.
Dak Prescott provides a nice pivot but likely requires the Cowboys to play in the Super Bowl to be optimal.
Tony Pollard is a pivot, but he did not score over 8 PPR fantasy points in any of the games in Weeks 15-17.
The offense runs through Lamb and this is a team in which it may just be the best option to take the chalky player rather than trying to be unique.
Lions to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Jared Goff
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Amon Ra St. Brown
Even if my bracket has the Lions dropping the Wild Card game to the Rams, selecting a Lions position player is still likely optimal.
The Lions vs. Rams game has the highest total of the week and is being played indoors.
It will be important to monitor the status of Sam LaPorta as the offense will need to pivot if he is unable to go.
If LaPorta doesn’t play, Jahmyr Gibbs provides an interesting option in the passing game that will go overlooked as most of the field will roster Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Buccaneers to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Rachaad White
- Mike Evans
- Cade Otton
The Eagles pass defense is a problem, and as with the other NFC teams, selecting a Buccaneers player even with a loss will most likely be optimal in this format.
Baker Mayfield has struggled recently, and it could be due to injury but I’m still leaning on playing a Buccaneer in the FLEX.
A case can be made for either an RB, WR, or TE, and the Buccaneers provide an opportunity to differentiate if building a chalky line-up.
A Cade Otton touchdown is in the range of outcomes as the Eagles have been tight end funnels this season and Otton will barely be rostered in this tournament.
Eagles to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Jalen Hurts
- A.J. Brown
Use recency bias to your advantage with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Last year’s Super Bowl runner-up has enough skill on both sides of the ball to win the NFC, however, public perception is low on the Eagles.
Should the Eagles make the Super Bowl, Jalen Hurts will be on the winning roster. If doing multiple entries, Hurts should be a selection.
Assuming A.J. Brown is good to go this week, I’m leaning to an Eagles pass catcher over a running back for brackets which have the Eagles not making the Super Bowl.
Rams to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Kyren Williams
- Cooper Kupp
- Puca Nacua
Kyren Williams is the consistent fantasy producer on the Rams, but the Lions have been very good against running backs.
If the Rams play multiple rounds, Williams is the safer play but may not be the highest-scoring fantasy player from the Rams in the Wild Card Round.
Demarcus Robinson has limited the ceiling of both Kupp and Nacua since he has been a staple of the offense.
With all three receivers on the field, Nacua has been targeted on 23.1% of routes, Kupp on 22.0%, and Robinson on 19.8%.
Without Robinson on the field, Nacua has been targeted on 30.1% of his routes and Kupp on 26.2%.
Matthew Stafford is an interesting play in the first round of the NFC contest if planning on selecting Brock Purdy from Round 2 onward.
Packers to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Aaron Jones
- Jayden Reed
- Dontayvian Wicks
The Packers have a 26% implied chance of defeating the Cowboys based on the current line. Again even with a first-round loss, using a skill position selection on one of the Packers players will likely be an optimal play.
The Packers could have some success through the air if Stephon Gilmore plays through injury, making one of the wide receivers a viable option.
Ravens to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Lamar Jackson
- Gus Edwards
- Zay Flowers
- Justin Tucker
The Ravens have a first-round bye and are favorites to win the AFC Championship.
The difficulty in these playoff contests is that quarterback Lamar Jackson is the overwhelming leader of the offense in fantasy points per game and will be one of the most rostered players in both contests.
For those who project the Ravens in the Super Bowl, it is hard to project any other player on the Ravens being the optimal selection in this scenario.
Differentiation will need to occur for selections from other teams for those who have the Ravens in the Super Bowl.
Isaiah Likely, Zay Flowers, and potentially Gus Edwards are options for those who have the Ravens losing in the AFC Championship or potentially the Divisional Round.
Likely and Flowers make sense for brackets projecting the Texans as the first opponent.
For those that have the Ravens losing in the Divisional Round, a contrarian play would be selecting Justin Tucker or fading all Ravens players completely.
The FFPC contest is a GPP contest that pays 11.5% of entrants, and fading the Ravens' skill players could provide enough leverage to cash if the Ravens lose their opening game, which has an implied probability of happening between 20-30% of the time.
The NFC contest is trickier, as selecting Lamar in round one to maximize the 4X points in the Super Bowl also results in taking a 0 score in the QB position in the Wild Card round.
If the Ravens play the 49ers, I could envision the 49ers taking a more run-centric approach than in the Week 17 meeting, resulting in a lower-scoring game. The optimal way to score requires number crunching based on projected matchups.
Bills to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Josh Allen
- James Cook
- Leonard “Playoff Lenny” Fournette
- Stefon Diggs
I am lower than consensus on the Bills, and I personally will be using this as a way to differentiate from the field.
The Bills went 6-1 after firing Ken Dorsey, and the general public believes the offense is the reason for the turnaround. However, the offense is averaging 0.6 fewer yards per play under Joe Brady.
It is important to note that the game against the Steelers is now lined at 36.5 points because of weather conditions as wind gusts are expected to reach 50 MPH.
The Bills are not going to be pushed by a Mason Rudolph-led Steelers offense in this game. The second-round opponent is most likely going to be the Kansas City Chiefs in a game in which neither team will be more than a field goal favorite. The two teams combined for 37 points in their first match-up this season.
This is more applicable in the NFC contest as there are two quarterback spots. Unless the Bills make the Super Bowl, the optimal play might be fading Josh Allen.
James Cook sticks out as the Steelers have been susceptible to running back passes and have struggled down the stretch against the run. A galaxy-brained thought is considering playoff legend Leonard Fournette or Latavius Murray, as the Bills will be leaning on the run against the Steelers.
This thought would need the Bills to trail early in the Championship Game as James Cook has not consistently played in the two-minute offense.
Typically, I’d take a low-owned Stefon Diggs but I don’t see him being a huge difference maker against the Steelers, and the Chiefs have done a good job against top receivers.
Chiefs to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Patrick Mahomes
- Isaiah Pacheco
- Rashee Rice
- Travis Kelce
The Chiefs are four-point favorites and -218 straight up at home against a Dolphins team with cluster injuries on defense.
Implied odds have the Chiefs winning the Wild Card game 69% of the time.
Patrick Mahomes has an 11-3 playoff record compared to Josh Allen who is 4-4 and Lamar Jackson who is 1-3.
The Chiefs offense has struggled this season, but it’s difficult to completely write off Andy Reid and Mahomes.
Should the Chiefs make the Super Bowl, there are multiple options to use in the FFPC contest.
Rashee Rice has outscored Travis Kelce in PPR scoring in each of the final four weeks and could provide a solid pivot to Kelce.
Rice has also outscored Mahomes in 3 of the 4 final games. There are several options available depending on how far the Chiefs are projected to go in your bracket.
Texans to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Devin Singletary
- Nico Collins
- Houston D/ST
Rookie sensation C.J. Stroud faces a tough task against a Cleveland Browns defense that plays a man-heavy scheme.
Browns quarterback Joe Flacco has thrown an interception in all five games he’s played including two interceptions against the Texans, which makes the Texans D/ST an option for those who have the Texans being eliminated in the opening round of the playoffs.
Browns to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Jerome Ford
- Amari Cooper
- David Njoku
- Cleveland D/ST
The Browns are an interesting team offering multiple options that could end up being the optimal play, including being an outright fade.
The Browns are 2.5-point road favorites and are one of three teams to defeat the top-seeded Ravens this season.
For those who believe the Browns will defeat the Texans and lose to the Ravens, David Njoku and Amari Cooper both provide intrigue as the Texans have struggled against tight ends and outside wide receivers over the past two months.
Dolphins to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Raheem Mostert
- De'Von Achane
- Tyreek Hill
- Jaylen Waddle
The Dolphins offense is still one of the top units in the league, and the defense has shown improvement over the second half of the season.
Unfortunately, Miami has had some terrible injury luck over the past month which limits the ceiling on both sides of the ball.
The Dolphins have their work cut out for them to advance in the playoffs as they were 1-5 against teams with a winning record this season. Although the Dolphins are underdogs, it would be difficult to fade the skill position players completely.
The Dolphins had success on the ground in their first matchup against the Chiefs, as Raheem Mostert averaged 7.1 yards per carry and led the Dolphins in fantasy points in Germany.
Both running backs and Jaylen Waddle are dealing with injuries, which needs to be monitored if pivoting from Tyreek Hill.
Steelers to Target in Playoff Fantasy Football
- Najee Harris
- Jaylen Warren
- Steelers D/ST
The current Vegas odds have the Steelers with 20.8% implied odds to win and an implied team total of 13 points in Buffalo on Sunday. The Steelers will most likely be the team faded the most in both contests.