We have built up a bit of a baseline for this season with our player tiers, positional rankings, and all of the 2023 off-season content you can find in one place on the site in the full Draft Kit.
With that content in place to aid your knowledge in how to play the game of fantasy football, I also know some of you are here because you want to know how I am playing drafts out myself this summer.
I want to dive into how I am personally approaching drafts this year at the quarterback position.
How to Draft:
I will also update this throughout the remaining time in the offseason if we get any significant news that impacts draft approaches.
While even those of you with the draft kit may not have read every word written this offseason, at this stage of the offseason I am operating under the assumption you have at minimum checked out the player rankings page and the individual player writeups in the positional tiers posts.
With that in mind, these pieces will not be as player specific or fully into the weeds on the pros or cons of each player. Instead, they will be more focused on the approach to drafting each position.
Quarterback Fantasy Related Articles:
- Quarterback Tiers
- Quarterback Rankings
- Quarterback Trends
- Red Zone Points vs Expectation: Quarterback
- Stats That Matter: Quarterback
- What We Can Learn from ADP: Quarterback
How to Draft Quarterbacks in Fantasy Football:
I cannot emphasize this enough early on, but there is still little to no reason to be the first person in your draft to the quarterback position.
Not only are you at the mercy of not knowing when the QB2 will come off the board, which creates its own opportunity cost, but there is also a huge opportunity cost compounded in taking a quarterback early in traditional formats because the leverage that having an elite scoring quarterback provides every week is the lowest of any position.
Even if Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Patrick Mahomes do pace the position, you will be able to make ground on that team that selects them based on where they are selected in drafts.
For the sake of answering the question “Well, when would you finally cave in and be the first to select a quarterback?”
The most realistic outcome in which I actually would consider being the first gamer to pick a quarterback in my league is if we are in a spot where the running back and wide receiver positions have thinned out and leveled off.
In this thin range of outcomes, we are talking about the pool of backs that I have in the first four tiers that are already gone and into the part of the wide receiver position in which the opening four tiers are gone.
While I am very unlikely to ever be the first person in line to select a quarterback in leagues, we have established that we have been increasingly accurate at setting the market for the position than ever before.
That has made it harder for gamers to approach the position with a full-on late-round approach while placing more of an emphasis on the front of the position in delivering the most quality scoring weeks.
If those tiers at running back and wide receiver are in similar places and someone has already selected a quarterback, this is where I will also entertain adding one of the top players at the position.
I have Hurts as the QB1 while he most often is drafted as the QB3, which fits nicely into this approach if running back and wide receiver are in those aforementioned places.
If I can do so optimally without compromising opportunity cost at running back and wide receiver, I do want to land one of Hurts, Allen, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Justin Fields.
This is where I see the first “firewall” at the position if you are following my tiers because those five players represent the options who I give the best odds to be the actual QB1 in overall scoring this season.
We fantasy gamers have been excellent at drafting the position because we understand which archetypes of quarterbacks have the highest ceilings.
Those that can have front-end rushing output while also posting passing seasons that are above the fold.
Jackson and Fields take some squinting to get to elite passing output that matches the Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, or Trevor Lawrence tier, but if they do run into seasons in which they have exceptional passing seasons, pairing that with their rushing ability is just too hard for those passing-first fantasy options to combat.
This is the first fulcrum point in drafts where I am going to largely skip a tier of quarterbacks at ADP.
If Jackson and Fields are gone, then that Herbert, Burrow, and Lawrence tier is largely too rich for my blood.
I want to monitor them to see if any fall below ADP. None of Burrow, Herbert, nor Lawrence are zeroes in the running game, but they all do have to flirt with pantheon passing seasons to truly compete to be the QB1 overall in traditional formats.
While those three are in a clear tier to themselves in that regard, a strong portion of their fantasy output can still be arbitraged, which is why I want to catch one of them discounted versus paying all the way up for one of them.
Since we are on that tier, I also want to mention that if you are in a league that plays with six-point touchdowns, then things are shifted.
In those formats, Burrow, Herbert, and Lawrence get massive elevation. They belong in consideration as early as QB4 after the Hurts, Allen, and Mahomes, but give me a quick moment to provide some pause on being overly aggressive with the position in those formats.
Leagues with six-point passing touchdowns do not cover the intent of slowing down the viability of dual-threat fantasy quarterbacks. They enhance the elite ones.
What six-point passing touchdowns limit is the ceiling of the traditional “Konami Code” archetype. That archetype is the quarterbacks that gain their floor via their rushing but come attached to weak passing numbers.
In 2022, Fields was in that mold.
But if those players also come with passing output, then they fly to the moon.
If Jackson has a passing season that can rival his 2019 campaign or Fields has a true breakout throwing the ball, then they only become better in those formats and distance themselves from passing-first options.
In those leagues, Allen is my unquestioned QB1 because that scoring is giving the true dual-threat options a turbo boost.
Getting back on track to the formats most of you will be playing this summer, we still want to attack players at the position that fits that mold of having the rushing ability and potential to have better passing seasons than what is being priced in.
At current costs, Deshaun Watson is the clear standout that fits that criteria. Watson is currently being selected on par with the WR29, RB29, and TE8, which are fair price points.
This is what makes Anthony Richardson so appealing to swing on (he is also someone to bump down in six-point passing touchdown formats). Richardson’s ADP will surely climb now that he has officially been named the starter, but even then, it is hard to see him jump that Burrow, Herbert, and Lawrence tier.
Even if Richardson is outright bad as a passer, his rushing alone should make him a viable floor-based option under that original Komani umbrella.
Also, if Watson or Richardson are just outright bad, then you should still have no shortage of pivots to make in season at the position in 1QB formats.
I have highlighted that the biggest mistakes that we typically make as drafters are when we are at the back end of the QB1 portion of drafts and are selecting passing-only options. Those picks have had the outright most fragility.
If looking at the current ADP, those options that appear to carry that risk are Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins. I would much rather bypass those players and just grab Geno Smith or Jared Goff if frozen out of the opening three tiers and Watson or Richardson.
This is also the point of drafts where I do start to factor in some early-season schedule outlooks.
Tua opens the year with games against the Chargers, Patriots, Broncos, and Bills. There is an upside to him, but that is a tough draw where we will not be projecting ceiling weeks often.
Rodgers gets slammed out of the gates. The Jets open the year with games against the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, Broncos, and Eagles before their Week 7 bye.
Prescott and Cousins do have more favorable outlooks than those two, but they also have front-end games that are against tough teams that will make them uncomfortable starts for ceiling potential paired with the lack of rushing upside.
If you do end up waiting on the quarterback or get frozen out, both Smith and Goff are the preferred plays based on performance and schedule.
The primary drawback for Smith is that he has an early Week 5 bye, forcing you to stream for him early on. But the Seahawks open the year with the Rams and Lions plus get a Week 4 game against the Giants. Three teams that I am projecting to be in the back half of pass defense this season.
Goff closed last season as a weekly QB1, taking advantage of several favorable spots.
This season, the Lions open the year against the Chiefs, who we know will force them to score points. They then play the Seahawks at home on a longer rest advantage (whom Goff posted 33 fantasy points against last season) and then the Falcons. Things do then get stiffer for Detroit, but Goff should come out of the gates strong and allow you to be in a position to win games early on.
Into the QB2 Zone and Superflex Leagues:
The tiers do not move when in Superflex formats, we just elevate the position.
You want to be hyper-aggressive in 2QB formats with the position based on what we discussed with the top of the position carrying so much water of late. If you can land any passer in the opening three tiers at the front of drafts, do it. If you somehow can get two of them, then do it.
I want to begin my 2QB drafts off with a pair of QB1 options, but if you are picking at the front of drafts, that is unlikely to happen since that tier of passers will almost always be picked clean approaching the back half of the second round.
When we get into the QB2 portion of drafts (and this applies to 1QB leagues if things just went completely wrong and you happened to have gotten frozen out of the position to this point), the position offers so many usable options.
We have already mentioned Watson and Richardson as appealing choices to make based on betting on their archetypes. We also mentioned both Smith and Goff as preferred options when we are in that area where the back-end QB1 options go and we have missed Watson or Richardson.
But this format keeps the door open for the entirety of the position.
This is also the format where I believe you can play the aggressive end of outcomes with Kyler Murray.
Some believe that Murray can be back as early as Week 5. While his rushing upside is going to be compromised and the Cardinals could be a disaster altogether, this is still the format to take swings on Murray because of the potential weekly leverage that can be gained.
In 2QB formats, you can deploy an Anchor QB/Hero-QB build similar to my preferred way to play the running back position.
Landing a quarterback from one of the opening three tiers and then getting a platoon of players to rotate based on upside and schedule.
In these formats, this is where you can make a play on Brock Purdy potentially rolling over his small sample as a rookie.
You can play the potential regression to the mean for the Steelers and Kenny Pickett.
You can play for a positive range of outcomes for players such as Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell, and Jordan Love, who offer mobility and have favorable schedules, but have ceiling priced into their cost, even in 2QB formats.
Auction Formats:
A lot of the same core principles above translate over to my auction approach, but in an auction, I am far less risk-averse than I am in snake drafts.
I am inherently a more cautious drafter in the early rounds of serpentine drafts.
I know I am going to get a lot of binary player choices wrong in those leagues, so I want to spend my top picks not only on the players that I have the most confidence in, but I want to factor in opportunity cost more in those formats, which limits how aggressively I do play the quarterback position.
In snake drafts, I inherently know that I am going to need extra ammo at wide receiver and running back, so I do prefer to use my higher-end draft capital at those positions to ensure I have as many swings as possible at those positions when they offer the largest bang for my investment.
But in auctions, we are removing some of the opportunity cost. We are still spending equal round value to acquire a front-end quarterback, but now we are not completely freezing ourselves out of players that have similar draft costs.
In auctions, I will not force quarterback similar to my approach in snake drafts, but I do want to hang around on the pricing of those Tier 1-2 quarterbacks in an attempt to land some value compared to the equivalent of their snake draft cost while also operating under the assumption that if I do want to pay up for an elite quarterback while still attempting to land high-caliber running backs or wide receivers of similar costs, I have the option to do so. That option is largely removed in snake formats.
Keeper Targets:
Given the nature of the position, we will be the lightest here on potential keeper targets outside of 2QB formats.
You are just not often going to run into a lot of keeper potential in 1QB leagues, but there is always the opportunity to land a Justin Fields from last year. Even Jalen Hurts had a juicy price point last season in some leagues where he represents a value this offseason if he can be kept a specific round cost or salary.
Anthony Richardson is the clear standout here in 1QB formats.
This is also where Kyler Murray stands out the most, especially if you are playing in 2QB formats. Murray also gets a bump if you have multiple IR spots in your leagues.
Even Deshaun Watson could be a value at his cost if you believe he can be the same player he was early in his career.
Going down the line, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Desmond Ridder, and Sam Howell all become more attractive options at their cost in keeper leagues.
Takeaways:
- Enter your league anticipating that you will not be the first team in your league to select a quarterback. Only force the issue on selecting the QB1 overall if Tiers 1-4 of the running backs and wide receivers are cleaned out.
- Monitor QB ADP without forcing things. The ideal start would be landing a Tier 1 quarterback in that same range in which Tiers 1-4 of running back and wide receiver are picked over.
- I have Jalen Hurts as my QB1. The best outcome would be landing him as the third QB from the opening tier at that price point of RB/WR being thinned out.
- Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields are the next best bets due to archetype.
- Be cautious about paying too great of a tax on the Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence tier. Pounce if you catch an ADP slide or are in leagues with six-point passing touchdowns, but do not force this tier based on positional need. Make them luxury picks.
- If your league has six-point passing touchdowns, the run-first quarterbacks have lower floors but also still carry massive ceilings. Balance out both accordingly with the pocket passers.
- If missing out of the front of the position, Deshaun Watson and Anthony Richardson are the next players to swing for apex outcomes while they offer floor potential due to rushing ability.
- If forced to wait on the position, Geno Smith and Jared Goff are my favorite early-season bets at their costs due to their overall offensive upside and early-season schedules.
- In 2QB formats, be aggressive and push to open QB/QB if both are players in the opening three tiers.
- If missing out on that approach, Smith and Goff are fine QB2 options but look to build an Anchor-QB/Hero-QB team. Build a platoon of QB2 options focused on targeting 2-3 of Smith and Goff, or Brock Purdy, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Jordan Love, and Sam Howell.
- In auction formats, apply similar principles, but you can be more aggressive on the front of the position due to reduced opportunity cost.
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