The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers Sunday afternoon game.
| Las Vegas | Rank | @ | LA Chargers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 24.5 | Implied Total | 28 | ||
| 21.8 | 18 | Points/Gm | 27.9 | 5 |
| 25.8 | 26 | Points All./Gm | 27 | 29 |
| 64.1 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 66.4 | 5 |
| 64.7 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.9 | 26 |
| 5.7 | 11 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 6 |
| 5.2 | 8 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 20 |
| 37.12% | 29 | Rush% | 37.50% | 28 |
| 62.88% | 4 | Pass% | 62.50% | 5 |
| 41.84% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 46.15% | 27 |
| 58.16% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 53.85% | 6 |
- Games involving the Chargers averaged 54.9 combined points per game in 2021, the most in the league.
- The Chargers scored on 47.9% of their drives (sixth in the league) and produced a touchdown on 33.5% (second) of their drives. Both of those rates were the highest for the franchise in the 2000s.
- No team reached the red zone on a higher rate of drives than the Chargers last season at 44.8%. Not only was that the highest rate of drives to reach the red zone in 2021, but it was also the highest rate of the 2000s, besting the 2007 Patriots (44.6%).
- Opponents scored a touchdown on 81.4% of their red zone possessions against the Raiders in 2021, the highest rate in the league.
- Austin Ekeler led all non-quarterbacks with 163.1 PPR fantasy points in the red zone. The next closest player was Cooper Kupp with 124.0.
- The Raiders were 13th in the NFL in drives to reach the red zone (60) but ranked 26th in the rate of red zone touchdown conversion (51.7%).
- The Chargers forced opponents to punt on just 26.7% of their possessions, the lowest rate in the league in 2021.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (TRUST): After a QB8 finish in points per game as a rookie, Herbert roared back as the QB2 overall and in points per game as a follow-up in 2021.
Herbert got off to a slow start in 2021, with QB26 and QB22 scoring weeks, then ripped off 12 QB1 scoring weeks the rest of the way with eight top-six scoring weeks, six in the top-three, and three outright pacing the position, tied for second in the league.
He also offers a touch of production with his legs, adding 3.6 and 2.8 rushing points per game to open his career.
Herbert will look to make it three seasons with 30 or more touchdown passes against a Las Vegas defense that was 29th in EPA versus the pass a year ago. The Raiders allowed 15.9 passing points per game (27th) despite ranking sixth in pressure rate (32.6%).
In two games against the Raiders last season, Herbert scored 21.3 and 27.4 fantasy points, throwing three touchdowns in each game.
When the Raiders did get home, they caused Herbert issues. Under pressure in those two games, Herbert was just 10-of-30 for 76 yards (2.5 Y/A!) with one touchdown, but when he was kept clean in those games, Herbert connected on 49-of-72 (68.1%) of his passes for 529 yards (7.3 Y/A) and five touchdowns.
Of course, Gus Bradley is now out of Las Vegas and has been replaced by Patrick Graham, so the days of sitting in Cover 3 and hoping to solely get home with four down linemen are over for this defense. Expect the Raiders to be move versatile defensively in 2022, but this back end still lacks the talent to cause any concern for a passing game as well stock as the Chargers.
With a game total among the highest of the weekend in a strong matchup on paper, Herbert will be my top quarterback in Week 1.