The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders on Christmas Day.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Las Vegas | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0 | Spread | -10.0 | ||
| 15.75 | Implied Total | 25.75 | ||
| 18.9 | 24 | Points/Gm | 22.8 | 10 |
| 20.0 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 17.5 | 3 |
| 58.4 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 63.9 | 18 |
| 64.5 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.1 | 4 |
| 4.9 | 26 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 6 |
| 5.2 | 15 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 6 |
| 40.10% | 24 | Rush% | 38.26% | 29 |
| 59.90% | 9 | Pass% | 61.74% | 4 |
| 44.85% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 40.50% | 11 |
| 55.15% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 59.50% | 22 |
- Six of the seven games in Kansas City this season have gone under the game total.
- The Chiefs are allowing a league-low 3.0 scoring plays per game.
- The Chiefs are allowing 1.37 points per drive at home, fifth in the league.
- The Raiders are allowing 2.39 points per drive on the road, 30th in the league.
- The Raiders have forced a punt on 22.6% of opponent drives on the road, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Raiders have converted 26.2% of their third downs on the road, ahead of only the Jets (23.4%).
- The Chiefs are allowing a league-low 3.5 yards per play on third downs.
- Kansas City has converted 9.6% more of their third downs than their opponents, third in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (TRUST): Mahomes threw for 305 yards on Sunday, his first 300-yard passing game since Week 7.
Unfortunately, he also threw two interceptions (another one directly the result of Kadarius Toney) and ended the week as QB17 (15.7 points).
Mahomes has now logged one QB1 scoring week over his past six games.
The good news is if you have survived with Mahomes to this point or are just playing Christmas DFS and ignoring your family, that one QB1 scoring week came against the Raiders.
Mahomes completed a season-high 79.4% of his passes against the Raiders when these teams played in Week 12.
When Las Vegas did not pressure Mahomes in that game, he was 21-of-24 for 9.3 yards per pass attempt and two touchdowns.
Aidan O’Connell: O’Connell started last week with concern that he may be benched after the Raiders were shut out at home in Week 14.
O’Connell ended the week throwing four touchdown passes as the Raiders scored a franchise-record 63 points against a helpless Charger team.
Entering Week 15, O’Connell had thrown four touchdown passes on 210 attempts and had not posted a QB1 scoring week.
We are not going to chase that game just as we did not chase Bailey Zappe’s Week 14 game this past weekend against the Chiefs.
O’Connell is still a QB2 in Week 16.
He was QB15 (13.9 points) when these teams played in Week 12.
After going 10-of-11 for 114 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter of that game, O’Connell was 13-of-22 for 134 yards the rest of the way.
Kansas City is allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt (fifth) and 12.1 passing points per game (10th).
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Running Back
Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco is due back this week after missing the past two games due to shoulder surgery.
Pacheco had 87.5% of the backfield touches when we last saw him in Week 13, giving him four straight games with 80% or more of the backfield opportunities.
If he were not just returning from surgery, this would be a spot to be more bullish on him, but many gamers with Pacheco likely do not have the luxury of taking a wait-and-see approach with him as an upside RB2.
While we could see more Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon here than we did before Pacheco’s injury, we are still catching him as a home favorite against a defense we have targeted all season.
When these teams played in Week 12, Pacheco handled 20-of-23 backfield touches for 89 yards and two touchdowns.
Reaching the end zone has been vital for Pacheco in fantasy.
Pacheco has been the average RB28 (9.4 points per game) in his weeks without a touchdown compared to the average RB9 (19.5 points per game) when he reaches the end zone.
Raiders RBs: On a short week, Josh Jacobs did not play in Week 15 due to a quad injury.
We have not heard much about his status for this week, and the Raiders have an extended layoff going from a Thursday game to a Monday game in Week 16.
That said, the Raiders are not postseason-bound, and Jacobs is set to become a free agent again.
The team could opt to take another look at what they have behind Jacobs if he is not 100% ready to go.
In his absence last week, Zamir White led the backfield with 45 snaps (70.3%), handling 20-of-30 touches for the running backs for 85 yards and a touchdown.
He even ran 22 pass routes compared to nine for Ameer Abdullah.
If Jacobs is not going to play again this week, White is a volume-based FLEX.
Things are different all around this week than last in that event.
We are catching White as an underdog on the road against a team that has not outright quit on the season and their current head coach.
The matchup has some plusses if the Raiders can hang in neutral game script.
The Chiefs have allowed 4.56 YPC to running backs (30th), but they also face the sixth-fewest running back runs per game (18.7).
When these teams played in Week 12, Jacobs rushed 20 times for 115 yards, with 63 yards and a touchdown coming on one run.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams: Adams collected 8-of-12 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown last Thursday as part of the scoring bonanza against the Chargers.
It was the first 100-yard game for Adams since Week 3 and his fifth touchdown of the season.
Adams now has had double-digit targets come his way in four of the past five games, keeping him in play as a volume-based WR2 despite the volatility he carries in this passing game.
This is a tougher spot for lead wideouts than a week ago.
The Chiefs are third in the league in points allowed per game to WR1 targets (11.7). They are allowing a league-low 46.0 yards receiving per game to those lead wideouts.
When these teams played in Week 12, Adams caught 5-of-7 targets for 73 yards and was the WR32 on the week.
Rashee Rice (TRUST): Rice stayed hot on Sunday, catching all nine of his targets for 91 yards and his seventh touchdown on the season.
Over the past four weeks, Rice is second among all wide receivers in receptions (32) and fourth in receiving yards (334) with three touchdowns.
The Chiefs have finally let Rice just play all of the time.
His route participation has gone up in four straight games, going from 68.4% and 69.2% in Weeks 12-13 up to 82.2% and 92.7% in the past two games.
Rice has been targeted on 29.7% of his routes over that span (WR9) with 27.9% of the team targets (WR11).
Now that Rice is operating as a full-time wide receiver attached to Patrick Mahomes, he is a weekly WR2 with upside.
When these teams played in Week 12, Rice only ran 26 pass routes and still caught 8-of-10 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown.
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers got in on the action on Thursday, catching his seventh touchdown of the season and throwing his third career touchdown.
Meyers is averaging 4.3 targets per game over his past seven games, but his high point over that span came when these teams played in Week 12.
In that matchup, Meyers caught 6-of-7 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown.
The Chiefs are the only team in the league to allow over half (50.9%) of the wide receiver receptions against them to come from the slot.
Paired with how good Kansas City is against lead wide receivers, that inherently makes sense.
Meyers is not a sexy start in Christmas DFS or your fantasy playoffs, but he does carry some signal as a FLEX.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (TRUST): Kelce was limited to 28 yards on five catches Sunday.
Like Mahomes, Kelce has not bottomed out this season, but he has not matched his draft capital and provided the leverage gamers were looking for when drafting him where they had to.
Kelce has scored one touchdown over his past seven games.
That said, he still stands out as an option getting a lot of opportunity paired with a strong matchup this week.
Kelce caught 6-of-7 targets for 91 yards when these teams played in Week 12.
The Raiders have allowed 78.8% of all tight end targets to be completed (31st) and are 27th in receptions allowed per game (5.6) to the position.
Michael Mayer: Mayer secured 4-of-5 targets for 39 yards and his second touchdown on the season Thursday night.
Mayer has not topped 46 yards or five targets in a game since Week 6, so he is best left for Christmas Day DFS over chasing in season-long leagues.
He caught 2-of-4 targets for 27 yards when these teams played in Week 12.
